An Early Look at NFL Buzz for Week 12 on Fanduel

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on November 20, 2014 - Last Updated on June 27, 2018

 

DFS is a game of information. Players check an ever-expanding number of sites and follow experts on Twitter to check matchups, predictive modeling, weather, revenge narratives, how many time zones the players are traveling across, if the game is on a Thursday along with countless other variables.

 

Week to week, all of those sites and gurus generate a lot of tweets that mention players. The noise can be deafening; imagine if Adam Levitan tweets a “tout” that Travis Kelce is matched up against a defense that allows tons of points to TEs, but then C.D. Carter tweets about Jared Cook’s connection with Shaun Hill, and Rotogrinders experts tweet 3 times about  Antonio Gates probably-definitely-maybe scoring a TD. Which one is the play?

 

What I (@dfslistening) do is collect all the tweets, and measure how many times each player is mentioned in a given week by the top 350 fantasy experts on Twitter. Many people follow the experts to get a feel for what the “herds” are going to do; I quantify that feel.

 

For our purposes here at PlayPicks, I will be focusing on the buzz for the “chalk” plays at each position. Chalk plays are determined by combining a player’s industry-wide projections (gathered by FantasyPros) and putting that into their Fanduel price; for example, a player projected to score 10 points can be just as valuable in building lineups as the guy who’s projected for 17, if his price is much lower.

 

If a player who is not a “chalk” play is generating lots of social buzz, I will do a deeper dive on him to see why he’s being mentioned so much.

 

I will divide the players into four quadrants:

 

Players with a high price and high social share are going to be saved up for in 50/50s and GPPs by the herds. They can be avoided if you have another player with a similar points to value ratio, especially in GPPs. They warrant a deeper dive before you think twice about missing out on them in a 50/50, since they have a good expected value and Football Twitter is behind them.

 

High Price, low social share can be great plays. Keep in mind the players in this group were selected for having a high expected value ratio, so there’s no reason they’re being ignored compared to the high price/high share group.

 

Low price, high social share are the screaming BUYs for the herd (think Jeremy Hill in week 9). They can be critical to building effective lineups in 50/50s, and often end up being the right play in GPPs. But if you want to be frisky, do more research and look to the next group.

 

Low price, low social share. Because of the low price they’ll still be somewhat owned, but not as much as those with higher social share. These can be great differentiators.

 

Keep in mind that ALL of the players mentioned in these charts are in the same ballpark of expected points/price value. There’s nothing separating them in our lizard brains except price and buzz.

 

Quarterback Group

 

High Price, High Buzz:

 

Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning

These three all are around or above 5% of the total QB buzz.

 

High Price, Low Buzz:

 

Aaron Rodgers

Somehow he’s still under the radar, at least this early in the week. Only 2.5% of the total QB buzz.

 

Low Price, High Buzz:

 

Mark Sanchez, Josh McCown

Both of these guys are priced at $7500 and are garnering 7.5% of total QB buzz apiece. They’re going to be heavily owned by people who are trying to save on QBs.

 

Low Price, Low Buzz:

 

For a Sanchez/McCown alternative, look at Alex Smith, Colin Kapernick and Matt Ryan, who are all around the same price, have a similar value projection, and are garnering 2.5% of QB buzz or below.

 
 

QuarterBack Group
QuarterBack Group

Running Back Group

 

High Price, High Buzz:

 
 
Marshawn Lynch, Demarco Murray

Beef Moe has been in the news a lot, which has brought his buzz metric to almost 20% of the total RB noise. People are very aware of him this week. Demarco Murray has garnered a 10% RB noise share. Both are priced around $9k.

 

High Price, Low Buzz:

 

LeSean McCoy, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte

These four are all priced above $7700 and have garnered less than 5% of the RB social share. If you’re going to save up for a contrarian, big money RB play, these four are great candidates.

 

Low Price, High Buzz

 

Jerick McKinnon

This is mostly from the recent Ben Tate acquisition from the Vikings. People are very aware of his freakish athleticism and possibility of popping a big run.

 

Low Price, Low Buzz

 

C.J. Anderson, Rashad Jennings, Isaiah Crowell, Steven Jackson

This group is all priced below $6600 and is getting very little buzz. Great building blocks for your team, especially Steven Jackson, who hasn’t been mentioned once amongst the Fantasy Football Twiterrati.

 
 

Running Back Group
Running Back Group

 
 

Wide Receiver Group

 

High Price, High Buzz

 
Mike Evans, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson

These six are all taking down more than 5% of WR total buzz each. After last week, Mike Evans will never be cheap again. They’re all priced over $8300 this week.

 

High Price, Low Buzz

 

A.J. Green, T.Y. Hilton, Julio Jones, Alshon Jeffery

If you’re saving at other positions for a WR, this group will provide some GPP value. They’re all priced above $8000 and are garnering less than 5% of Twitter buzz each.

 

Low Price, High Buzz

 

Odell Beckham Jr., Sammy Watkins

These two rookie wideouts are priced at $7500 each and are both taking down over 6% of social WR buzz each. Expect them to be in lots of lineups.

 

Low Price, Low Buzz

 

Vincent Jackson, Steve Smith Sr., Anquan Boldin

Ah, the three old men. All three of these guys are projected to provide the same ballpark of per point value as the other WRs listed here… all are beneath $7k in price and are getting less than 1% of WR mentions each. Smith Sr. is especially under the radar, since no one has mentioned him at all as of Thursday morning.

 
 

Wide Receiver Group
Wide Receiver Group

 
 

Tight End Group

 

High Price, High Buzz

 

Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham

No surprise here, both of these guys are above $7.4k and are taking down at least 7.5% of social mentions for TEs each. Easy to fade if you’re trying to find value elsewhere in your lineup.

Low Price, High Buzz

 

Coby Fleener

Fleener’s taken down 5% of social mentions this week coming off his huge national TV game. With Dwayne Allen nursing an ankle injury he could be in for a big ownership percentage.

 

Low Price, Low Buzz

 

Jason Witten, Larry Donnell, Travis Kelce

All 3 of these guys are priced under $5700 and are taking in less than 3% of social mentions each. Love picking my TE from this group every week.

 
 

Tight End Group
Tight End Group

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