NASCAR DFS Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Picks for Bojangles Southern 500
Each week, we’ll have an early week cheat sheet for the DFS NASCAR contests at DraftKings. This week, we look at the Bojangles Southern 500 at Darlington.
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Kevin Harvick
What happened in the last intermediate track race? Harvick won and led over half the laps. For those keeping score, Harvick has led 39% of the laps this season and run 20% of the fast laps. Kyle Busch is a distant second with 13% of the laps led and 10% of the fast laps. If you run through the possible race outcomes in your head, Kevin Harvick’s name pops up every time. Last year was a down one, and he still earned 15.5 hog points at Darlington. He scored 77.5 hog points the year before and 98 in a win in 2014.
2. Martin Truex, Jr.
There’s something about night races for Truex. Richmond, Kentucky, Kansas, and Charlotte are all night races, and Truex has been unstoppable at these race tracks the last several years. Darlington isn’t any different. Truex wasn’t the best in the 2016 race, but he was good enough to win. Last year, Truex was the best. He scored 42 hogs points, won the first and second stages, but he blew a tire with three laps left and surrendered the lead.
3. Kyle Larson
The fast groove at Darlington is not just near the wall; it’s against the wall. Need proof? Look at Larson’s stats from last year. He led the most laps and ran the most fast laps. In the 2016 race, Larson earned the fourth-most hog points. There are only a couple intermediate tracks with grooves near the wall. At Kansas and Chicago, Larson put on an absolute show.
4. Kyle Busch
On one hand, Kyle Busch finished second last year at Darlington and has the second-best average finish over the last six Darlington races. On the other hand, Busch is averaging just 43 fantasy points per Darlington race over the last four races. He scored 129 points in 2013 and 85 points in 2011, but that was a long time ago. It’s clear Busch struggles a little at this track, but a good car cures all.
5. Denny Hamlin
He cheated and won at Darlington last year, scoring 54.5 hog points. Hamlin scored 25 hog points at Darlington in 2015. This might come as a surprise, but Hamlin is the best driver at Darlington. His two Darlington wins trail only Jimmie Johnson’s three. Hamlin’s 83% top 10 rate is the best in NASCAR, so is his 58% top 5 rate. His average finish of sixth is the best. Hamlin had a very fast race car a couple weeks ago at Michigan.
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LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – At Michigan, Stenhouse looked terrible in practice but somehow finished 18th. Against all odds, when this race ends, Stenhouse will likely be somewhere between 10th and 20th.
2. Austin Dillon – RCR figured something out at Michigan, or they found a way to cheat. Either way, it doesn’t matter. Dillon should have a good enough car to play strategy again.
3. Ryan Newman – In 19 Darlington races, Newman has 13 top 10 finishes. His 68% top 10 rate at Darlington ranks third in NASCAR.
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Chase Elliott – He hasn’t cooled off since his win at Watkins Glen. Elliott has a top 10 finish each of the last five races.
Erik Jones – The second-year driver has a fifth-place finish in three of the last four races.
Kurt Busch – The monkey is off his back. Kurt finally got a win at Bristol. He’s on a six-race top 10 streak.
Denny Hamlin (2017)
Martin Truex, Jr. (2016)
Carl Edwards (2015)
Kevin Harvick (2014)
Matt Kenseth (2013)
PICK TO WIN
Martin Truex, Jr. – He’s a vampire. Don’t bet against Martin Truex in a night race.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.