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PGA DFS

DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Picks & Plays for The Northern Trust

Welcome back for another week of PGA DFS at DraftKings and FanDuel. We’re here to give you the full report on fantasy golf picks for The Dell Technologies Championship at TPC Boston.

As always, our goal is for PlayPicks to be your first and last stop for an all-around PGA DFS news source each week … and for free! Give me a follow at @DFSJimmie if you haven’t already. And while you’re at it, go ahead and like PlayPicks on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. Now, back to your regularly scheduled PGA breakdown.

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The course

Designed by Arnold Palmer, TPC Boston has a nice blend of classical Northeast golf features mixing well with the more modern touches. Note the wider fairways that push the mature trees just far enough off the fairway to create open sight lines and inviting tee shots. These set up for the approach to smaller than average Bentgrass greens. TPC Boston is a par 71 that stretches a lengthy 7,300 yards. It’s adorned with 65 fuzzy banked bunkers to keep the players at bay.

How it plays

TPC Boston is one of those courses that can suit anyone who happens to have his best stuff on a given week. While long, the course’s diversity of the holes lends itself to a variety of ways to find success, provided the golfers excel with the long iron approaches. In my video breakdown this week, I have a segment on players who rank top 25 in the last 50 rounds in proximity from 175-200+ yards. Half (12) of those players have posted one or more top 15s in the last four years at this event. Ultimately, long iron play appears to be a key factor here.

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The breakdown

Looking toward the bottom of the card, you can see the varied hole distribution. Also, note that exactly half of this course (P4 450+ & P3 200+) accounts for groups that average over par, while the remainder of the hole groupings average under par. Players will be looking for birdie half of the time out here. You will need to account for that by favoring birdie makers this week in your models. Maybe even chase some eagles with the par 5 18th seeing an average of 4% of the field snag an eagle.

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Key stats

  • Strokes Gained T2G
  • Birdie or Better
  • Prox 175-200+
  • Par 5 Scoring

PGA DFS players

Top Tier: $11.5K – $9.5K

Rory McIlroy ($10.5K) 

Rory is coming off a disappointing final Major (T50) despite having posted a 2nd and a 5th prior to his last outing. One of the streakiest and highest upside players in the game is primed to bounce back. Rory has won at this track before. He is the world’s premier long iron ball striker and, at $10.6K, is a nice discount from the very top. I am not worried about his T50; Rory is in form and stalking another Fed Ex Cup.

Jason Day ($10.4K) 

While Jason Day didn’t challenge the top of the leader board last week, he did post a top 20 despite losing strokes on approach. Day really seems to enjoy golf in this part of the country, specifically this course. He has said the sight lines off the tee just fit him. He feels comfortable, and it has shown in his performances here (25/15/12/7/13) over the past five years. Ranking first in my overall model this week, Day’s slight price drop in this smaller field make him a great fit for lineup building. He’ll likely be very popular in tags on FanShare this week.

Tiger Woods ($9.7K) 

This course should provide Tiger with a bit of cushion off the tee and allow him to focus in on his strengths — long-iron approaches and clutch putting. Granted, he didn’t have the putter last time out, but since it is so variable, I am not concerned. Tiger is dialed in with his irons right now and scores as well as any player in the field. This is a week where Tiger has the opportunity to hunt.

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Mid Tier: $9.4K – $8K

Justin Rose ($9.3K)

Rose is coming in off a bad MC where he was heavily owned, disappointing many a lineup last week. This makes him an inherently strong GPP play this week. Rose missed the cut because he lost 6.2 strokes putting in two rounds, not a feat likely repeated on a more preferential surface this week. Rose also rates out really well on what I consider to be a comp course in Muirfield Village (Jack’s place). That’s another big, Bentgrass course with an elite field and that requires strong long irons to compete. Take a share or two of Rose in GPP for some low-owned upside.

Phil Mickelson ($8.2K)

Last time out, Phil thrilled us once again with his crazy low round and spree of birdies before fading a bit to a T15. Phil racked up his usual allotment of DK points, netting him a healthy price increase this week. Look for Mickelson to take the same approach this week on a course where he can be aggressive. Despite the price increase, Phil makes a fine mid-range play provided you are taking a more balanced approach to building this week.

Patrick Reed ($8.4K)

Reed placed inside the top 10 here the past three years and is looking to make it a fourth. He should use this event as a spring board into peak form just in time for the Ryder Cup. While Reed is certainly looking ahead, I expect him to focus up for an event that he clearly enjoys and on a course where he feels he can take advantage. Reed’s aggressive approach game and strong putter have been his keys to success on this course.

Others to consider: Jon Rahm, Bryson Dechambeau, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Henrik Stenson, Brandt Snedeker

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Value Tier: $7.9K and Lower

Paul Casey ($7.9K) 

Since withdrawing from this event in 2015, Casey has finished fourth and second at TPC Boston. Always in the discussion re: elite long-iron ball striking, Casey clearly has what it takes to contend for the win at this course. His price tag will likely make him one of the highest tagged golfers on FanShare this week. He will certainly be at the core of most of my lineups this week.

Gary Woodland ($7.7K)

This is a prime bounce-back spot for Gary Woodland, who was chalky last week and didn’t pay off for his backers. Despite his mediocre finish, he was still positive in his strokes gained ball striking but struggled around and on the greens. Bent is a better surface for Gary, as is this golf course. TPC Boston has been good to him, and Woodland posted three top 20s in his three years here. I’ll be looking for him to continue that trend.

Byeong Hun An ($7K)

“Bennie An” is making my list this week due to his performance at Muirfield Village earlier this year. Bennie is a great long iron player and is longer than average. At his price tag, he simply feels too cheap to be in the range for his course fit and upside. Gaining strokes everywhere but the green, Bennie should improve just by getting to his preferred surface this week. At $7K, I will be rounding out plenty of my lineups with Bennie An this week.

Jason Kokrak ($6.7K) 

Possessing that long iron game we have been talking about, Kokrak deserves a look in GPP simply due to his game type. He also showed the ability to keep it together here for multiple rounds in 2016 with an eighth-place finish. A streaky player who can’t be counted on to make a putt, Jason has made four of his last four cuts with two top 20s mixed in.

Others to consider: Kyle Stanley, Matt Kuchar, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Kevin Na, Zach Johnson, Keegan Bradley, Emiliano Grillo, Kevin Chappell, Brice Garnett, Peter Uhlein

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