NASCAR DFS Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Picks for Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
Each week, we’ll have an early week cheat sheet for the DFS NASCAR contests at DraftKings. This week, we look at the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol.
DFS NASCAR Contests
Piston: $10 entry, $225k guaranteed – $50,000 to 1st!
Chrome Horn: $4 entry, $100k guaranteed – $10,000 to 1st
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TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Kyle Busch
He’s a seven-time Bristol winner, including the last two races here. He scored over 100 fantasy points in each of those races. That’s all anyone needs to know, but it usually takes five sentences to seem convincing. Busch was amazing at the old multi-groove Bristol. After a track surface modification, Bristol became a single groove track. Busch underperformed at Bristol from 2012 to 2017. Last fall, Bristol perfected their application of track bite and recreated Bristol as a two groove track. Busch has won both races since that change.
2. Kyle Larson
If a track has a dangerous, but fast groove near the wall, then that is where you will find Kyle Larson. Bristol is Kyle Larson’s favorite track. If it wasn’t for Kyle Busch, Larson would be considered the king of Bristol. That’s a bold statement considering he’s never won at Bristol. In the spring race, Larson was cruising to a win until a late caution reset the field. On the last run, his car tightened up, and he was passed by Kyle Busch. Last fall at Bristol, Larson scored the third-most hog points. He scored the most fantasy points in the 2017 spring race, but finished sixth because of a late race penalty.
3. Kevin Harvick
It’s hard to fade Kevin Harvick. Last week at Michigan, his didn’t look like the best car in practice. He didn’t look like the best car to start the race either. But when the race was over, Harvick had led over half of the laps. In the spring Bristol race, Harvick didn’t lead a lap. He still scored the third-most points because he started in last place. It’s hard to tell how good Harvick was at Bristol because he was always mired in traffic. He ran 21 fast laps and drove from 39th to seventh in a beat-up race car.
4. Martin Truex, Jr.
Throw out his spring race. He got caught in a wreck on Lap 5. Throw out his fall 2017 race. He earned a penalty while pitting under green. In the spring 2017 Bristol race, Truex scored 73.5 hog points and had the best average running position. He finished eighth because he earned a late-race penalty. Truex may not be able to compete with Harvick at the intermediate tracks, but Bristol is another story.
5. Brad Keselowski
This is the second Bristol race. The cars that were good in April will likely be good in August. Ryan Blaney scored 37 hog points before he got wrecked by a lapper. He could be fast again, or it could be Keselowski. He scored 30 hog points and had the fourth-best average running position. Unfortunately, he suffered a mechanical failure after completing 90 percent of the laps. Last week, Keselowski earned his best finish of the year by finishing second at Michigan.
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LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Alex Bowman – Last week, he finished fifth at Michigan. It wasn’t flukey. The Hendrick Motorsport cars have turned a corner. Way back in the spring, HMS was struggling at every track except Bristol. Bowman finished fifth at Bristol.
2. Bubba Wallace – The No. 43 car is not very good, but Bubba got everything out of it at Bristol (finishing 16th). It helped that nearly half of the field was involved in wrecks, but Bubba deserves credit for keeping his car clean.
3. Ryan Newman – He wrecked and was forced to pit seven times to fix the damage at Michigan. Newman still finished 10th. At Bristol in the spring, he refused to be lapped and wrecked the leader. He went on to finish 10th. Newman doesn’t go away.
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RECENT SUCCESS
Kevin Harvick – It’s easier to point out the bad races than name all of the good races. Harvick wrecked in two plate races. He made a dumb mistake at Fontana and blew a tire at Charlotte. That’s it. The rest are awesome.
Kyle Busch – Throw out Daytona; it’s Daytona. Busch hasn’t finished worse than fifth since the middle of May. He has four bad races this season: a mechanical failure at Dover and three wrecks at plate tracks.
Kurt Busch – His winless streak extended to 58 races, but most of the drivers have lengthy winless streaks. Kurt has earned a top 10 finish in five straight races.
TRACK HISTORY
Kyle Busch (Spring 2018)
Kyle Busch (Fall 2017)
Jimmie Johnson (Spring 2017)
Kevin Harvick (Fall 2016)
Carl Edwards (Spring 2016)
PICK TO WIN
Kyle Larson – He always loses to Kyle Busch, but this is the week it changes. Larson breaks through and earns his first win at Bristol.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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