FanDuel Ownership rates: Week 11

Written By PlayPicks Staff on November 14, 2014 - Last Updated on June 27, 2018
FanDuel Ownership

This week we will be using the $1 NFL Dive #2 to check FanDuel ownership rates. These numbers will all be 10-15% higher Sunday, as the Bills and Dolphins are out of the oplayer pool. Last night’s game was not a very high used one for fantasy, so the bump this week is much lower. If you are interested in learning how to interrupt or understand these FanDuel ownership rates read my primer article.

 

High Owned Guys

 

QuarterBack

 

Ben Roethlisberger 8.7%

Tom Brady 7.9%

Aaron Rodgers 7.8%

Mark Sanchez 7.5%

Phillip Rivers 7.3%

RG III 6.7%

 

Running Back

 

Alfred Morris 19%

Mark Ingram 13.6%

Shane Vereen 13.3%

Jeremy Hill 13%

Le’Veon Bell 13%

CJ Anderson 11.6%

 

Wide Receiver

 

Jordan Matthews 23.7%

Martevus Bryant 19.3%

Kelvin Benjamin 18.2%

Jordy Nelson 13%

Desean Jackson 9.6%

Odell Becckham Jr. 9.2%

Antonio Brown 9.1%

Mike Evnas 9.1%

Julio Jones 8.7%

 

Tight End

 

Gronk 16.5%

Antonio Gates 12.5%

Jimmy Graham 10.5%

Dwayne Allen 8.7%

 

Defense

 

Broncos 12.8%

 

Analysis

 

First thing that jumps out to me is there are no truly highly owned QBs this week. There is a large cluster of guys at between 4-8% that are all usable and no one is too highly owned that they need to be considered for a fade. In fact on weeks like this there is no need to overthink anything at the QB position. Whoever is your top target to be the high scorer of the week is who you should roll out there without any concerns. This is a good week to play the Peyton, Andrew, and Aaron’s of the world depending on which guy you like best. At these ownership rates I will not try to get cute with a Mark Sanchez play this week. Roll out the stud of choice and ride him to the money.

 

I was surprised to see the RB numbers where they are and let me elaborate on some things I think may be out of whack here. For starters, ALFRED MORRIS at 19%? Believe me I know the case for him as I was one of those 19% who had him on a Thursday roster. I can see him having a good number of carries and most likely getting a TD, but he is not a guy who can easily pay off his number. You need about 22-24 from him to remain on Sunday Millions winning pace and due to his lack of production in the passing game, I think even a two TD game might leave him short. At 19% he is an easy fade for me as I do not like 5-1 odds on him being a top scoring RB. Jeremy Hill is another interesting guy to me. Gio Bernard is very likely out again and I was expecting much higher usage on Hill. I think everyone is still feeling the sting of his 6 FanDuel point performance at 60%+ owned last Thursday and he is being ignored and overlooked. I will be pounding him hard and making everyone else pay for sleeping on his talent. At $6500 he is the salary relief you need to fit in those high priced studs at QB, WR, and RB. He has the upside to go for over 20 FanDuel points and if everyone else is shy to pull the trigger based off his last start, then I will be the guy to do it here and you should consider the play as well. The other guys all have some chinks in the armor that I am concerned with. Ingram has been banged up and getting a lot of work. He has been great so no argument there, but he could always aggrevate that injury and put up a low score if it happens early. Yeah it’s not likely, but it’s also not unlikely to happen. Shane Vereen is so highly owned based on price. He could have a big game catching passes out of the backfield, or he could be playing a low number of snaps as a guy like a Gray or a Boldin handles much of the running duties on first and second down. While I do not hate him, I also do not love him as his upside is somewhat limited in a time share. Lev Bell is a great player on a team that thinks they are the 1969 NY Jets. Big Ben and the boys have become a little too throw happy recently and Lev Bell has had his first two games under 100 total yards in his last two. Until Pitt realizes that they need a running game and have the back with the talent to carry the load, they will continue to do things like lose to my NY Jets. CJ Anderson is getting the bump due to his big relief effort last week, but keep an eye on the news as Monte Ball is practicing and may play.

 

At WR, we have some interesting decisions to make. Chief amongst them is whether or not to use Jordan Matthews. Matthews had a monster game last week and for those of you who think it is a fluke, let me lay out the reason why people were on him then and will be on him again. Sanchez does not have a great arm strength. Therefore unlike Foles, he will not take nearly as many shots down field to Maclin as Foles did. That leaves Jordan Matthews running the short to intermediate stuff as the main weapon. As much as I like fading guys that are really highly owned, Matthews salary did not come up very much. At $5500 he needs 16.5 points to pay it off. If he gets a TD in a likely high scoring game, then he really only needs 4/5 catches for maybe 65-70 yards to be serviceable. If you look around guys at his price, I feel better with him then James Jones, Justin Hunter and Davante Adams. While he is highly owned, I think you may need to make him a play unless you think you can get that production from one of those other guys. When spending up in other places you tend to need at least one low priced guy to make it work and he is that low priced guy at WR for me this week. Martavis Bryant and Kelvin Benjamin on the other hand are guys I can see fading. Bryant is just way to expensive now. If he did not have that late TD last week in garbage time, he would have sunk a bunch of rosters. Due to his low price that TD was a saving grace as he found his way onto a few top scoring rosters. His price has jumped a bunch and now it will no longer be anywhere near that easy for him to reach value. Benjamin has the same problem as his garbage TDs made up for what was a very disappointing first 2 ½ quarters. He is a boom or bust kind of guy as a rookie who is very inconsistent. When he grabs a few TDs he will make value, but when he doesn’t he gets you a low single digit number. That offense looked horrible Monday night and Cam is hurting bad. If you roll with Benjamin it is a very high risk play and at 18% I think it will be an easy fade or at least a severe limit of exposure from me. Desean and Mike Evans seem a little high to me as well. D Jax has big play ability and RG3 has a big arm, so I guess people are looking at that, but RG3 and Garcon have the history on their side and you also have a highly owned Morris and a lot of buzz about Jordan Reed. All these guys can’t hit and if everyone loves Morris and the ground game then how many throws are we expecting D Jax to see? At $8100 price tag he basically needs to catch 2 long bombs for 6 in order to have a chance to pay that off for you. Evans has seen a few TDs lately, but the bulk of the targets are going elsewhere. V Jax had 13 of them last week and is still arguably the #1 WR on that team. Evans recent production means that defenses will start adjusting to bracket or double him a little more so that also makes V Jax life easier. Roll Evans if you want as he has been on top 10 rosters two weeks in a row, but I’m looking opposite him if I decide to play any of Josh McCown’s WRs, which is a big IF.

 

All the other guys in the WR group are about where I would expect. If anything, a few of them are a little under owned in my eyes and that is mostly because of price. It’s tough to fit one, let alone more than one of these guys in a lineup if you want any stud player at TE, QB, or RB. All the rest of these guys are pro bowlers year in and year out, so take the one you like best as all are in play.

 

Low Owned Guys

 

QuarterBack

 

Andrew Luck 4.3%

Drew Brees 4.3%

Cam Newtown 1%

Andy Dalton 0.4%

 

Running Back

 

LeSean McCoy 5.3%

Jerick McKinnon 5.2%

Eddie Lacy 4.8%

Marshawn Lynch 4%

Jamal Charles 2.2%

 

Wide Receiver

 

Brandin Cooks 7.6%

Anquan Boldin 5.9%

Randall Cobb 5.2%

Calvin Johnson 4.8%

BOTH BEARS WR 3%

AJ Green 2.7%

Jeremy Maclin 1.8%

 

Tight End

 

Julius Thomas 7.6%

Travis Kelce 5%

Mychal Rivera 4.8%

Jordan Reed 4.4%

Greg Olsen 3.1%

 

Defense

 

Detroit 4.1%

 

Analysis

 

There’s no combo I am going to mention with this guy but at 4%, Andrew Luck is being given a 25-1 chance to be the top scoring QB at home against NE in the highest O/U game this weekend. If you have not watched this guy play yet you are missing out on the next big thing in NFL QBs. Luck is a beast. I like the fact that he spreads the ball around as well, because Belichek takes away your favorite toy, but if he takes away T.Y. this week, Luck is not going to care as he does not have a favorite toy. He’s the kinda guy who plays with all the toys so none feel left out. If you want to bracket T.Y., then Luck will just go short to his TE or reignite his bromance with Reggie Wayne from earlier in the year. He is just as capable of the huge game as Manning and Rodgers are and this one should be high scoring and close, so he is definitely in play for me.

 

For those of you who look forward to my underused stack of the week, I would say that this week’s underused backbone I will be rolling out is Drew Brees with Cooks and Graham. Brees is 4% at home in the dome where he plays his best football. Cooks also plays better at home as his speed is a true weapon on that fast track turf surface they have. Jimmy Graham is not low owned per se, but he is lower owned then Gronk which makes him a slight swerve and one that I think pays off as I expect him to outscore Gronk. Gronk is in that obnoxiously high O/U game so that is where most people are clicking given the pricing on both is basically the same.

 

At RB, I think every single guy on the low owned list is both usable and a good start. The ony one that gives me some pause in Jerick McKinnon. His price is right and the match up is not a red flag, but getting his TDs Vultured by Asiata is a killer. Lev Bell has been on a lot of people’s No play list because he does not score TDs despite the massive yards. Without getting a 6 point boost every now and then it is very tough to make value. Without a Td at his price, McKinnon would need 16/17 points and that would be 6 catches and 140 yards of total offense. Not out of the question, but also not very likely. I still like him, because if he can break a 30 yard TD run, then he basically makes value for you easily with 9 of those 16 coming on one play. If his big run gets him tackled inside the 5 though you can bet the VULTURE will be swooping in to pick the carcass clean and take that easy +6. He is priced at $5500 like Matthews though and should be a more highly used guy for salary relief. Since people are sleeping on him, I will be using him more than I originally thought I would.

 

Every single guy on the WR list above is both in play and should be highly used by me this week with the exception of Maclin for the reasons I gave above. All these guys are clear stud options and #1s on the team. They all have 20+ FD point upside and you can not go wrong getting any of them for 20-1 odds at 5% or below. Pick your favorites and go with them. I will be rolling a lot of Aj/Calvin myself with Cooks and Boldin sprinkled in. I will sub in a little bit of Cobb too as this could be his week. I like Bears WR normally, but that offense is a mess and the forecast is calling for snow and freezing weather, so just keep an eye on that if you decide to roster either of them. I give Alshon the nod over B Marsh, due basically to injury concerns. I really am not loving either of them though.

 

JT is still cheap and worth a look at tight end. I’m not sure if Manning goes back to him this week as it should be D. Thomas’s turn in the carousel. Peyton makes sure he gets some looks to the guys who did not get fed last week to keep all his guys involved, happy, and in the game. St. Louis has a decent pass rush and shorter corners that may struggle a little with his size. I can see going JT based on ownership, but the game script for him is not ideal. Olsen is always overlooked and he always produces a decent game. He had 7 catches and 100 yards again last week. There’s a reason he is priced just a notch below the studs and his work so far this year proves he belongs there. Kelce could see more work if Fasano is out, so that could be sneaky. I do not get the Jordan Reed love, but go ahead and roll him out too if you want, just do not think I am going to give it my blessing. He is losing snaps to Niles Paul and some other blocking TE. He does line up at WR sometimes, especially in the red zone and they do use him because they have no big strong WR that can get position in that part of the field, but his game logs have slowly looked worse and worse.

 

The Defense I love this week is Detroit. I know some people predict a shoot out and a good game from Stanton, but I am not a fan and that D line is vicious. I can see a few sacks and them forcing him into a bad throw or five and running at least one back for an easy 6 points.

 

Good luck this weekend guys. There’s value to be had to allow you to get studs in this week and more people going cheaper at QB, so the contrarian thing to do is pay up at QB, take the obvious value at WR and RB and then build around it with a stud TE and quality mid range everywhere else. That approach will be the one that likely wins someone a lot of cash this weekend.

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