MLB DFS

MLB DFS DraftKings.com & FanDuel.com Lineups & Picks for July 7, 2018

There are four games on the main MLB DFS slate for Saturday, 7/7/18. Below is a list of our best MLB DFS picks for pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target in Cash and GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. The info below can also be used for creating your daily fantasy baseball strategy at FantasyDraft.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by an unsuspecting team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate.

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Best MLB DFS Pitchers for July 7, 2018

Brad Keller vs. BOS ($4.2k DraftKings, $6.0k FanDuel)

I’m not thrilled to pick a Royals pitcher against Boston, but Brad Keller has been effective over his past two starts. Today, against the streaking Red Sox (who have won 10 of their last 13), Keller will be called upon to do one thing only: force ground balls. The Red Sox are 20th in GB/FB ratio (Ground Balls Hit/Fly Balls Hit), and they don’t draw a lot of walks (19th in BB/game). This suggests Keller should be able to pick his spots and force double-digit ground ball figures for the fourth straight game.

In his last two, he’s forced 41 ground balls compared to 24 fly balls, including a dominant seven-inning shutout against the Angels in which he forced 15 ground balls and allowed just one fly ball. Ned Yost is a believer, and so am I. Keller has the tools to go deep in baseball games and to force hitters to play by his rules. He won’t blow you away with heat, but he does have upside at these prices. He’s on my radar at DraftKings in GPPs, though you can get some major leverage by rostering him at FanDuel, as well.

Robbie Ray vs. SD ($9.2K DraftKings, $9.0k FanDuel)

I’m not saying fade Max Scherzer, but my goodness is he expensive. In his stead, Robbie Ray is an affordable stud on the final game of the slate against the Padres. San Diego strikes out at the fourth highest per game rate in the Bigs, while Ray just recently returned from the DL. He threw a six-inning shutout against Miami in June, while starting off July with a bad outing (6 earned runs in 5.0 innings) against the Cardinals. The Padres are much more like the Cards than the Marlins, so I feel good about Ray’s chances in this one.

He’s also boasted double-digit strikeout upside this season, so if you’re going to fade Scherzer, I’d argue you need Ray. There will be plenty of strikeouts on this slate, but the difference will be in whether or not it’s worth it to pay up for the Nationals ace. On DraftKings, it’s very difficult, which is why I prefer Ray on that platform. Over at FanDuel, the difference is still significant in price, but not terribly so. Ray is GPP only for me on FD, while you can play him in any format on DraftKings.

Wei-Yin Chen @ WAS ($4.2K DraftKings, $6.0k FanDuel)

Chen is ridiculously cheap over at DraftKings for a guy who has allowed one run in his last 12 innings of action (with 10 strikeouts to boot). The Nationals, meanwhile, entered their series with the Marlins having lost 10 of their last 12 games. Sure, Scherzer gives them as good an opportunity as anyone to get back on track, but, again, he’s super expensive (over $14,000 on DraftKings). Chen, on the other hand, is just $4.2k on DraftKings and $6.0k on FanDuel. While Washington boasts a plethora of dominant bats, their recent woes make me lean Chen’s way.

He’s been quite dominant against left-handed bats, allowing just a .573 OPS to them, compared to the .895 OPS he allows right-handed bats. Considering the Nats lineup consists of Bryce Harper, Matt Adams, Juan Soto, and Adam Eaton, there are plenty of left-handed hitters that will have to overcome Chen’s splits. They’re certainly capable of doing it. I’m just not sure the Nats are in much of a position to overcome anything right now. The All-Star Break can’t come soon enough for them. Roster Chen in GPPs at DraftKings and FanDuel, while I think he’s a crazy leverage cash play at DK only. I mention it simply because, with that salary, he pretty much only needs to avoid a disaster to pay it off.

Other pitchers to consider: Max Scherzer, David Price

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Best MLB DFS Hitters for July 7, 2018

Salvador Perez vs. BOS ($3.6K DraftKings, $2.7k FanDuel)

Perez likely won’t be popular on this slate, given he’s up against David Price. But in 14 career at-bats against the LHP, he’s hit three home runs. Price just got lit up by the Yankees in his last start, allowing eight runs in 3.1 innings of action. But he’s been worse on the road compared to at home all season, with a 4.74 road ERA and a 3.63 home ERA. Perez, meanwhile, is off to a decent start to July after racking up a .200 OBP in June. In his first four games of the new month, Perez hit safely in three of them, including a two-hit performance in the series opener against the Red Sox. He hasn’t hit a home run at home since May 18, but the BvP seems to suggest that Price is prone to the Royals catcher’s power. Perez is a boom-or-bust GPP play for me at DraftKings, while he’s a major leverage play at FanDuel where I expect very low ownership.

Matt Kemp @ LAA  ($4.5k DraftKings, $3.4k FanDuel)

I’ll start by saying this: I like just about any Dodgers right-hander against Deck McGuire today, but Matt Kemp stands out. In his first two games of July, Kemp went 8-for-9 with two doubles, two home runs, and eight RBIs. Deck McGuire is allowing right-handed batters to slash .351/.432/.973 with an OPS of 1.405. In his last start, he allowed five earned runs in 3.1 innings, including two home runs to right-handed batters (Manny Machado and Mark Trumbo). Kemp fits into the same hitter profile as those two, and he should continue his red-hot start to July with a big game against McGuire. He should face him at least twice, even if the Dodgers run him out of the game early.

David Peralta vs. SD ($4.7k DraftKings, $3.5k FanDuel)

You’d be hard-pressed to find another NL pitcher with splits as severe as Tyson Ross. The veteran Padre is allowing a .291 BA to left-handed hitters compared to a .163 BA to righties. Enter David Peralta, a fairly dynamic lefty bat who will likely hit lead-off for the Diamondbacks at home in the slate’s night cap. Before yesterday evening’s game, Peralta had hit safely in six consecutive games, racking up nine hits across 25 at bats, including two doubles and a triple. The real concern with Peralta is not contact—he’s got that covered with a .327 BA in June. It’s his upside that’s always questionable. As such, he’s a GPP only option for me at DraftKings, since a two single outing with nothing else won’t be enough for your cash lineup. On FanDuel, I’m more flexible. His price is extremely reasonable, and it’s $1.2k below DraftKings price.

Shohei Ohtani vs. LAD ($4.3k DraftKings, $3.3k FanDuel)

Welcome back, Shohei. The superstar returned from a lengthy absence to earn two hits and two runs over his first nine at-bats since returning. OK, not the mark of a superstar, but give him some time, or at least a few days. This evening, Ohtani will face RHP Ross Stripling, who has not had a win in his last three starts. While he’s still been solid over those past few starts, in his most recent (a no decision against the Rockies), Stripling allowed more than three runs for the first time since April. Ohtani, though a bit rusty, is crushing right-handed pitching this season, good for a 1.054 OPS and 15 extra base hits in 91 such at-bats. I like the lefty bat in this one. And his prices are still ridiculously reasonable when you consider his immense upside. He’s GPP and Cash viable for me at DraftKings and FanDuel, alike.

Other hitters to consider: Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Yasiel Puig, Paul Goldschmidt, Trea Turner, Ketel Marte, Anthony Rendon, Mookie Betts, Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, Whit Merrifield, Hunter Renfroe

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MLB DFS Stacks to Consider for July 7, 2018

Dodgers vs. Deck McGuire (Angels)
Angels vs. Ross Stripling (Dodgers)
Diamondbacks vs. Tyson Ross (Padres)

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