Red Sox Vs Astros: ALCS Game 5 Betting Lines, Stats, And Predictions – October 20, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on October 20, 2021

The Boston Red Sox (92-70) host the Houston Astros (95-67) for Game 5 of the ALCS, at 5:08 PM ET on Wednesday, with the series tied up at 2-2. Chris Sale pitches for Boston (-125 to win) while Houston (+105) will answer with Framber Valdez.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of October 20, 2021, 5:00 PM ET. See the table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to place a bet at DraftKings.

Red Sox vs Astros Betting Lines

Red Sox Betting Insights

  • This season, the Red Sox have been favored 109 times and won 65, or 59.6%, of those games.
  • Boston is 52-31 this season when entering a game favored by -125 or more on the moneyline.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Red Sox have a 53.2% chance to win.
  • In their last 10 games with a total, the Red Sox and their opponents have combined to hit the over three times.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 6.6
HR 23
ERA 4.70
K/9 9.6

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Astros Betting Insights

  • The Astros have been underdogs in 27 games this season and have come away with the win 13 times (48.1%) in those contests.
  • This season, Houston has come away with a win six times in 11 chances when named as an underdog of at least +105 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The Astros have an implied victory probability of 46.8% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
  • In their last 10 matchups with a total posted by oddsmakers, the Astros and their foes are 4-6 when it comes to hitting the over.

Astros Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 7.0
HR 19
ERA 5.42
K/9 9.4

Astros Probable Pitcher – Framber Valdez

  • Valdez gets the start for the Astros, his 23rd of the season. He is 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 125 strikeouts over 134 2/3 innings pitched.
  • The lefty’s most recent time out was on Saturday against the Red Sox, when he tossed 2 2/3 innings, surrendering two earned runs while giving up six hits.
  • The 27-year-old has an ERA of 3.14, with 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings in 22 games this season. Opponents are batting .220 against him.
  • Valdez heads into this matchup with 20 outings of five or more innings pitched this year.
  • The Astros have been the underdog on the moneyline in three of Valdez’s starts this season, and they went 1-2 in those games.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of October 20, 2021 at 5:03 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Red Sox Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 92-70
Home 49-32
Road 43-38
vs LHP (Starters) 35-31
vs RHP (Starters) 56-39
Day Games 1-3
Night Games 91-67

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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Chris Sale

  • Sale (5-1) will take to the mound for the Red Sox and make his 10th start of the season.
  • The left-hander last pitched on Saturday, when he gave up one earned run and allowed five hits in 2 2/3 innings against the Astros.
  • The 32-year-old has pitched to a 3.16 ERA this season with 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 2.3 walks per nine across nine games.
  • In nine starts this season, Sale has lasted five or more innings seven times, with an average of 4.1 innings per appearance.
  • His team has been victorious in 75% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 6-2.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of October 20, 2021 at 5:03 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Astros Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 96-67
Home 51-30
Road 45-37
vs LHP (Starters) 35-28
vs RHP (Starters) 61-39
Day Games 3-6
Night Games 93-61

Red Sox Hitting Stats

  • The Red Sox are 10th in baseball with 219 home runs. They average 1.4 per game.
  • The Red Sox have a 48-13 record in games this season when they hit two or more homers.
  • Boston has hit 23 home runs over the past 10 games.
  • Rafael Devers is batting .281 this season with a team-high 38 home runs and 115 RBI.
  • J.D. Martinez has 162 hits and an OBP of .348 to go with a slugging percentage of .516 this season.

Astros Hitting Stats

  • The Astros rank ninth in Major League Baseball with 221 home runs.
  • They’ve hit 121 homers, an average of 1.4 per game, in 85 road contests this season.
  • Houston has 19 homers over its last 10 games.
  • Yuli Gurriel leads the Astros with a team-best batting average of .319.
  • Carlos Correa is hitting .279 with 34 doubles, a triple, 26 home runs and 75 walks.

Game Prediction

Moneyline Pick:
Red Sox (-125)

Over/Under Pick: Under (9.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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