Red Sox Vs Astros: ALCS Game 4 Betting Lines, Stats, And Predictions – October 19, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on October 19, 2021

The Boston Red Sox (92-70) host the Houston Astros (95-67) in Game 4 of the ALCS, Tuesday at 8:08 PM ET. The Red Sox have a 2-1 lead. Boston (-130 to win) has Nick Pivetta on the hill, while Houston (+110) counters Zack Greinke.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of October 19, 2021, 8:00 PM ET. See the table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to place a bet at DraftKings.

Red Sox vs Astros Betting Lines

Red Sox Betting Insights

  • The Red Sox have won 65, or 59.6%, of the 109 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • Boston is 51-26 this season when entering a game favored by -130 or more on the moneyline.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Red Sox have a 54.3% chance to win.
  • In their last 10 games with a total, the Red Sox and their opponents have combined to hit the over three times.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 8-2
Runs Per Game 6.9
HR 24
ERA 4.21
K/9 10.2

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Astros Betting Insights

  • The Astros have come away with 13 wins in the 27 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • Houston has a mark of 5-4 in contests where sportsbooks favor them by +110 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Astros have a 45.7% chance of walking away with the win.
  • In their last 10 games with an over/under, the Astros and their opponents have combined to clear the total four times.

Astros Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 6.7
HR 18
ERA 5.93
K/9 9.6

Astros Probable Pitcher – Zack Greinke

  • Greinke gets the start for the Astros, his 30th of the season. He is 11-6 with a 4.16 ERA and 120 strikeouts in 171 innings pitched.
  • The righty last appeared in relief on Monday, Oct. 11, when he threw one scoreless inning against the White Sox while giving up two hits.
  • Among pitchers who qualify in MLB play this season, the 37-year-old ranks 20th in WHIP.
  • Greinke has pitched five or more innings in a game 20 times this season heading into this game.
  • The Astros are 3-4 in Greinke’s seven starts this season that they were the moneyline underdog.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of October 19, 2021 at 8:02 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Red Sox Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 92-70
Home 49-32
Road 43-38
vs LHP (Starters) 35-31
vs RHP (Starters) 56-39
Day Games 1-3
Night Games 91-67

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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Nick Pivetta

  • Pivetta (9-8) will take to the mound for the Red Sox and make his 31st start of the season.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Sunday, Oct. 10 against the Rays, throwing four scoreless innings of relief and allowing three hits.
  • The 28-year-old has an ERA of 4.53, a 2.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.290 in 31 games this season.
  • Pivetta has started 30 games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings 20 times. He averages 5.2 innings per appearance.
  • His team is 11-7 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of October 19, 2021 at 8:02 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Astros Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 96-67
Home 51-30
Road 45-37
vs LHP (Starters) 35-28
vs RHP (Starters) 61-39
Day Games 3-6
Night Games 93-61

Red Sox Hitting Stats

  • The Red Sox rank 10th in MLB action with 219 home runs. They average 1.4 per game.
  • The Red Sox are 48-13 this season in games when they hit at least two home runs.
  • Boston has 24 home runs over the last 10 games.
  • Rafael Devers leads Boston in home runs with 38 and runs batted in with 115.
  • J.D. Martinez has collected 162 hits this season and has an OBP of .348. He’s slugging .516 on the year.

Astros Hitting Stats

  • The Astros rank ninth in Major League Baseball with 221 home runs.
  • They’ve hit 119 homers, an average of 1.4 per game, in 84 road contests this season.
  • Over the last 10 games, Houston has hit 18 home runs.
  • Yuli Gurriel has racked up a team-best batting average of .319.
  • Kyle Tucker is batting .294 with 37 doubles, three triples, 30 home runs and 53 walks.

Game Prediction

Moneyline Pick:
Red Sox (-130)

Over/Under Pick: Over (10)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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