DraftKings Fantasy Golf Picks & Plays for The Quicken Loans National
Welcome back for another week of PGA DFS at DraftKings, FanDuel, and FantasyDraft. We’re here to give you the full report on picks for The Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms.
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The Course
TPC Potomac is a par 70 that barely eclipses the 7,000-yard mark and is accentuated by Scottish-style bunkering throughout the course. This accompanies the fescues that line the fairways and bent grass greens. Situated just outside Washington DC, this beast of a course surprised many last year. It played as one of the most difficult courses in the rotation during its inaugural year back on tour.
How it Plays
With length not being an issue, premiums are placed on hitting the tight fairways, plus staying out of the lengthy rough and 10 water hazards on the property. Most will fail at that this week if last year is any indication.
Since we only have one year of data to go from regarding the new TPC Potomac, I think it is important not to get too caught up in the small sample size. Generally, this is a tough target course with greens on the small side for the tour and tight fairways with nasty bunkers. Expect players to be looking for par more often than birdie around here.
Straight and steady is a good recipe for success at this track. Good ball strikers who are bad putters can have success here as evidenced by the top of the 2017 leaderboard.
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The Breakdown
As you can see, the bulk of this par 70 course comprises the long par 4’s and par 5’s, while the par 3’s play right in the middle. Expect golfers to be plotting for par at this course. Last year, it averaged 1.46 strokes over par. With a couple of risk-reward short par 4’s and a couple of lengthy par 5’s, any golfer that finds himself off the pace this week is going to really struggle to get back on the right side of the cut.
There are a scant few birdies to be made here. All in all, this course compares well to the recent par 70’s we have played the past few weeks. Players will need strong T2G games and to avoid the big numbers if they have any hopes of competing on the weekend. Finally, I can’t overstate this: par 4 scoring is crucial this week.
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Key Stats
- Par 4 Scoring
- Good Drives Gained
- Strokes Gained Approach
- GIR Gained
- 175-225+ proximity
PGA DFS Players
In general, we have a very weak field on a very tough course this week. That’s usually a recipe for extreme variance. There are a lot of plays this week with only one or two sound reasons to roster them. Unfortunately, you will be forced into some tough decisions this week because of that. I suggest aggressively concentrating your player pool.
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Top Tier: $11.7K – $9K
Rickie Fowler ($11.7K)
The no. 1 overall player in my models, as well as in the simulations, Rickie Fowler should garner plenty of attention this week. He’ll also likely be the consensus betting favorite. Rickie has the complete game for a tough track that rewards intelligent play. Straight off the tee and ranked first in the field for long par 4 scoring, Rickie will have his eyes on repeating his top three performance from last year.
Tiger Woods ($11K)
While Eldrick certainly has the distance to compete, I feel like the shorter, more technical tracks are where he can succeed at this point in his career. This course should negate his erratic driver and help highlight his elite approach game and clutch putter. The best in the world is hungry to get back into the winner’s circle, and I won’t be surprised if this is the week he gets it done. Even if he falls short of a victory, Tiger still ranks eighth in the field for birdies per event and second in bogies avoided. “El Tigre” is stalking.
Joaquin Niemann ($9K)
The Chilean wonder kid is back this week, and despite his lack of sample data, I am going to roll out some Niemann shares this week. We only have six (non-Major) events to look at, but he has made half his cuts in those. And in the 50 percent of cuts he has made, he’s posted a top 10 all three times. When he does make the cut, he has picked up a staggering 6.1, 5.8, and 7.6 on strokes gained approach, respectively. That’s impressive. Niemann is a super talented kid who deserves some GPP shares this week.
Other to consider: Marc Leishman, Francesco Molinari, Kevin Na
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Mid Tier: $8.9K – $7.5K
Kevin Streelman ($8.7K)
Kevin Streelman posted a solid outing here last year with a T17. And that makes sense with a game like his. He’s steady off the tee, especially into the greens, but struggles if he misses them. Lately, Kevin has been putting together some really solid approach numbers, but with mediocre finishes brought about by his scrambling woes. It is tough to gain so many strokes on approach while losing over four around the greens. I am chalking his recent scrambling issues up to variance and will be rolling Kevin this week.
Stewart Cink ($8.5K)
Cink continued his strong play with another top five last week to go with his top five from two weeks ago. The form is there, and the course fit couldn’t be better for Cink this week. Short, par 70’s are Cink’s jam, and he is rocking right now. I expect Cink to plod his way around this track and nab a few birdies where others won’t and keep himself in the mix for the weekend.
Gary Woodland ($8.1K)
Gary Woodland is getting his game back in shape after adjusting to the dad life and his early season surge. A bomber who plays the shorter, tougher tracks exceptionally well, Woodland and his skills are perfectly suited for this track. And with his strokes gained ball-striking back on the positive side, look for Gary to make the cut handily and eye a top 15 by Sunday afternoon.
Billy Horschel ($7.9K)
“Billy Ho” keeps popping up in all my blended models this week, as he fits the course well on paper. Tough, par 70 tracks with bent grass are where Billy thrives. He posted a 26th here last year during a tough time in his life and career. This year, he is much more focused on his game and on course pursuits. Always a streaky golfer who rarely gives an indication of a big week ahead of time, Billy brings plenty of risk. But this week, his upside justifies it.
Others to consider: Kevin Tway, Danny Lee, Andrew Putnam, Bill Haas, Anirban Lahiri
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Value Tier: $7.5K and Lower
Joel Dahman ($7.3K)
Joel should be well informed about the course this week since his caddie posted on Twitter yesterday that he previously carded a 36 under at this event … on Sega. All jokes aside, Joel is playing some solid golf lately, and his game is well suited for a tough par 70 track. Dahman contends by grinding out his pars and snagging a birdie or two per round. Until last week, he’d been crushing it with both his off-the-tee game and his into-the-green game. Joel should bounce back from his MC last week; I expect a made cut and a surge on the weekend.
C.T. Pan ($7.3K)
My guy Pan let me down last week, but I won’t let that discourage me. Pan was a good play last week and remains a good play this week on a track very similar to ones he has favored thus far in his career. Tough par 70’s are his thing, and one missed cut doesn’t change his hot current form over the past five events.
Adam Hadwin ($7.3K)
The chalk of the cheap range, Hadwin will be very highly tagged on Fanshare this week and rightfully so. He has the most pedigree in this pricing range. Elite and with his long irons and a normally strong putter, Hadwin can certainly succeed on these shorter, tougher tracks, as evidenced by his Valspar victory last year. The only knock against Hadwin is his last two events. They saw his approach game lose a stroke to the field. Tread carefully with Hadwin this week, especially if his ownership gets over 15 percent.
Others to consider: Si Woo Kim, Troy Merritt, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Tyler Duncan, Brian Gay, Lanto Griffin, J.J Henry
That does it for this Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac breakdown. Good luck this week!
