Red Sox Vs Astros: ALCS Game 3 Betting Lines, Stats, And Predictions – October 18, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on October 18, 2021

The Boston Red Sox (92-70) host the Houston Astros (95-67) for Game 3 of the ALCS, at 8:08 PM ET on Monday, with the series tied at a game each. Boston’s (-120 to win) Eduardo Rodriguez and Houston’s (+100) Jose Urquidy will be the starting pitchers.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of October 18, 2021, 8:00 PM ET. See the table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to place a bet at DraftKings.

Red Sox vs Astros Betting Lines

Red Sox Betting Insights

  • This season, the Red Sox have won 65 out of the 109 games, or 59.6%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • Boston has a record of 56-36 in games where oddsmakers favor them by at least -120 on the moneyline.
  • The oddsmakers’ moneyline implies a 52.2% chance of a victory for the Red Sox.
  • When it comes to hitting the over, the Red Sox and their opponents are 3-7 in their last 10 games with a total.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 8-2
Runs Per Game 6.1
HR 22
ERA 4.11
K/9 10.3

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Astros Betting Insights

  • The Astros have won in 13, or 48.1%, of the 27 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
  • This season, Houston has come away with a win nine times in 16 chances when named as an underdog of at least +100 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Astros have an implied victory probability of 47.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • When it comes to the total, the Astros and their foes are 4-6 in their previous 10 contests.

Astros Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 6.7
HR 18
ERA 4.96
K/9 9.4

Astros Probable Pitcher – Jose Urquidy

  • Urquidy (8-3) gets the starting nod for the Astros in his 21st start of the season. He has a 3.62 ERA in 107 innings pitched, with 90 strikeouts.
  • His most recent time out was on Sunday, Oct. 3 against the Athletics, when the right-hander tossed six innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing four hits.
  • The 26-year-old has amassed an ERA of 3.62, with 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings in 20 games this season. Opponents are hitting .218 against him.
  • Urquidy heads into the game with 14 outings of five or more innings pitched this season.
  • The Astros have been the moneyline underdog in three of Urquidy’s starts this season, and they went 2-1 in those games.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of October 18, 2021 at 8:03 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Red Sox Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 92-70
Home 49-32
Road 43-38
vs LHP (Starters) 35-31
vs RHP (Starters) 56-39
Day Games 1-3
Night Games 91-67

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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Eduardo Rodríguez

  • Rodriguez (13-8) will take to the mound for the Red Sox and make his 32nd start of the season.
  • The left-hander’s last start was on Monday, Oct. 11, when he tossed five innings while giving up two earned runs on three hits in a matchup with the Rays.
  • The 28-year-old has an ERA of 4.74, 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings and a batting average against of .277 in 32 games this season.
  • In 31 starts this season, Rodríguez has lasted five or more innings 22 times, with an average of 4.1 innings per appearance.
  • His team has won 56.5% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (13-10).
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of October 18, 2021 at 8:03 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Astros Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 96-67
Home 51-30
Road 45-37
vs LHP (Starters) 35-28
vs RHP (Starters) 61-39
Day Games 3-6
Night Games 93-61

Red Sox Hitting Stats

  • The Red Sox rank 10th-best in MLB play with 219 total home runs.
  • The Red Sox have racked up two or more dingers in 61 games this season, and are 48-13 in those outings.
  • Boston has hit 22 home runs over the last 10 games.
  • Rafael Devers leads Boston in home runs with 38 and runs batted in with 115.
  • J.D. Martinez has 162 hits and an OBP of .348 to go with a slugging percentage of .516 this season.

Astros Hitting Stats

  • The Astros have hit 221 homers this season, which ranks ninth in the league.
  • They’ve hit 118 homers, an average of 1.4 per game, in 83 road contests this season.
  • Houston has 18 homers over its last 10 games.
  • Yuli Gurriel leads the Astros with a team-high batting average of .319.
  • Carlos Correa is hitting .279 with 34 doubles, a triple, 26 home runs and 75 walks.

Game Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Astros (+100)

Over/Under Pick: Under (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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