Where there is a will there is a way, and I found that way. You didn’t think a little thing like hiding rosters was going to stop us from bringing you the FanDuel Ownership you guys crave, did you? This week we used the $1 11,000+ Entry FanDuel Dive to track ownership rates. There was very high representation across the board at all positions last night. All these numbers deserve a 30% boost with no Panthers or Saints available for Sunday. Let’s check out what the numbers show:
High Owned Guys
Quarter Back
Colin Kaepernick 10%
Russell Wilson 8.2%
Tom Brady 5.5%
Andrew Luck 5.4%
Running Back
Ahmad Bradshaw 14.1%
Marshawn Lynch 11.5%
Jeremy Hill 11.4%
Arian Foster 9.6%
Ronnie Hillman 9.2%
LeSean McCoy 6.5%
Jamal Charles 6.3%
Andre Ellington 5.9%
Wide Receiver
T Y Hilton 25.4%
Antonio Brown 12.6%
Mohammed Sanu 12.2%
Jeremy Maclin 11.5%
Brandon LaFell 11.4%
Emanuel Sanders 11.2%
Odell Beckham Jr. 9.9%
Doug Baldwin 7.3%
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski 12.3%
Travis Kelce 7.5%
Larry Donnell 6.6%
Dwayne Allen 6.4%
Jordan Reed 5.7%
Defense
Chiefs 16%
Browns 14.6%
Seahawks 13.2%
Bengals 11.1%
Analysis
The first thing that stands out to me here is that I need to rethink my QB selection for the Sunday millions. The reason I say this is that all four of the QBs on the high ownership list are guys I am on and I’m not getting good value on any of them if they are already at these levels when there was almost 30% QB usage on the two guys who already played (Cam and Brees). That means Kap and Wilson should be over 10% Sunday and Brady/Luck should be close by as they are a natural swerve for those who used Brees Thursday in the same price range. Brady, I especially am hesitant to use as the weather looks like snow is predicted and the M.O. of Pats against Peyton has been to control clock, move the chains, and keep him on the sidelines. Pats can win this game, but I do not see it happening in a shootout if they do. Luck is a guy I really like to throw it around, on the road in East Rutherford against the G Men. His price is sky high and I was hoping it would scare more people away, but while I will have exposure because he could be the top scoring QB, I will limit it because of the high price and high ownership. The next two guys I am really on the fence about. The Rams have given up some big days to running QBs on the ground so I can see why people are on Kap. Rams offense is falling apart with The #1 WR now out on top of the #1 QB being out and the #1 RB basically getting Wally Pipped by a committee of journeyman backs being given a shot. I can see Kap having a good game, but worried he will not have the reason to have a big day as I think SF controls this one and wins going away. Same thing for Wilson actually. Seattle tough at home, Raiders have struggled except for the one game where Carr went off. They may have a really good first half where Wilson’s arm and legs both pay some dividends, but I doubt it will be able to last as they should have a comfortable lead by the third quarter. What makes Russell Wilson so good is that he is a cerebral guy. He knows when he is needed and when it should be on cruise control and will not look to push the envelope if they are winning big at home. He should have a big game IF the Raiders can keep it close. I capitalized IF, because it is a very big IF.
For starters, I shutter to think what Jeremy Hill ownership will become Sunday. Bengals back up RB is $5300 against the Jags D. The reason I shutter is the news of Gio being out broke mid day Thursday. Come Sunday everyone will have heard about this and His ownership could double as the pickings down at $5300 are slim and there is really no one else at that price people will turn to. If he gets 15-20 touches against a weak Defense, then he could easily go three times Value and get you 15 points. Despite the high ownership I think he is worth it, especially if Gio is out or limited. He always grabs a few passes, so if he gets a TD and 60 yards on top of that he is Golden. Going to be high owned, but very tough to fade him in my opinion. Of the high priced backs the juiciest match up looks to belong to Marshawn Lynch. All indications are they should be winning and controlling that game from the jump and beast mode should be getting fed the ball often come the second half. Wilson has been running a little more and could vulture a TD or two from Lynch, so the play is not without risk. I liked him thinking it was going against the grain, but now seeing his popularity I will limit exposure to him as well. News of Trent Richardson playing have not scared any of you off Ahmad Bradshaw either. My beef with him is two fold. He is now back in a time share even if he gets the larger role and he is still priced up where he was as a starter. Bradshaw has been on top 10 rosters in the Millions on at least 3 weeks I can remember if not more. You cannot ignore him, but he is no longer a sneaky play at low ownership and a square price that has an above average chance to make value. Foster has been an absolute stud lately, but with his price where it is you need another 40 point game from him this week. I think he can do it and my beef with him is not directly with him, but with a price that high it will be tough to get the guys you want to round out that roster. Ronnie Hillman is another guy I really like and think he is about where he should be. Pats let Moreno go for 200+ on the ground last year and Belichick loves taking away your favorite toys. I think they dare the Broncos to beat them on the ground and Peyton has shown the willingness to take what the defense gives him. I could see a 20 touch game for Hillman with a score and a boatload of yardage. He will definitely be a back I use and ownership will not scare me too much with him.
At WR I think I have to seriously consider the T.Y. Hilton fade this week. I like T.Y. a lot and he has done nothing to dissuade me from that. He is going to be on a quarter of rosters though and that seems high for anyone. I will have some of him as I had him as a top 5 WR, but there’s merit to fading him in GPPs in case he has a bad game. I’d be more app to take guys like Sanu, Sanders, Maclin, and Antonio Brown given that they are about 10-14% as I think they should be. T.Y. should also be in that range, so he is twice as owned as those mentioned and therefore gives me reason to look elsewhere. Brandon Lafell at 12% seems high to me as no one wanted this dude three weeks ago. He had a few good games, but with higher priced and ownership this week I will not chase those points. Remember this guy was cut twice so he is not a superstar. Odell Beckham Jr. is not cheap for a rookie Wr making his 2nd start at 10% ownership. I can see the talent this guy has and the speed to stretch the field, but listen to this first. You are taking a rookie WR who is not the #1 option on a somewhat weak passing team in a game that is supposed to be played on a Monday Night in NJ during a cold front. It’s going to be a three hot chocolate kinda night to stay warm at the Meadowlands so I don’t think it is perfect passing weather. Beckham has upside but his price is up now and I just really do not see it.
At TE The Gronk is the man once again. People needed proof he was back so he went out and got you three touchdowns. He is no where near as highly owned on Thursday as I thought, but remember we had 23% on Jimmy Graham last night and a few more people on Olsen so there’s 30% of a TE pool that now needs to find a new guy for Sunday. Gronk is slightly more expensive then Jimmy but I think a lot of the usage will move that way. Kelce is also interesting as his price went down. His talent is undeniable, but his snap count is still low. Luckily his price dropped so he is worth inclusion, but it’s not a must play.
Defense this week saw a lot of teams highly used. I like the Chiefs against my hapless NY Jets the best, but the Browns are going to be highly owned as well due to being possibly the best match up at the lowest price. I think you can use all of these as no one is too overused and these are the top match ups.
Low Owned Guys
QuarterBack
Peyton Manning 3.7%
Ben Roethlisberger 2.8%
Eli Manning 2.7%
Carson Palmer 2.7%
Phillip Rivers 2.2%
Ryan Fitzpatrick 1.1%
Running Back
DeMarco Murray 5.5%
Jerrick McKinnon 5%
Leveon Bell 4.6%
Lamar Miller 4%
Denard Robinson 3.2%
Chris Ivory 2.8%
Wide Receiver
Demaryius Thomas 7.2%
Steve Smith Sr. 6.6%
DeAndre Hopkins 6%
Martavius Bryant 6%
Rueben Randle 5.9%
Dez Bryant 4.4%
Mike Wallace 4.4%
Anquan Boldin 3.6%
Mike Floyd 3.1%
Andre Johnson 2.9%
Wes Welker 2.8%
Tight End
Julius Thomas 5.1%
Antonio Gates 3.9%
Zac Ertz 1.5%
Defense
49ers 7.2%
Chargers 3.9%
Texans 2%
Analysis
There’s a few low owned pass catching combos that could boost you up the ranks this week. At the priciest end you always have Peyton Manning and the Thomas brothers by another mother. Peyton is under 4% now and will probably go off at 6/7% Sunday. Julius is at 5.1% and I see that number bumping up to 8/9% with no Graham in the pool. Demaryius is 7.2% and tough to fit in due to price so I can see that staying put. I don’t think I need to explain the upside these guys have, so make sure you have exposure. I know NE usually plays Manning tough and everyone thinks they will play a prevent defense and let Denver run, but maybe that script doesn’t play out so neatly and the best QB of our lifetime does what he always does and wins someone a GPP with them saying why did I not start the obvious play?
There are other combo’s with potential as well. I really like Rivers and Gates this weekend. I know Miami pass D has been very good, but Rivers has been very good as well. Gates and him are both being overlooked and you can make a pretty nice stack if you add Floyd, Allen, or Royal depending on your feelings. If Gates gets his TD or two and Rivers finds Floyd down field for a long TD, then a 300 yd 3 td day is not out of the realm of possibility against a stout D. His low ownership means he’s worth the gamble, like Big Ben was last week and Peyton was when he helped someone win a ton of money. It’s risky yeah, but remember that you do not get studs at low ownership when they have cupcake match ups.
Palmer to Fitz/Floyd, Eli with Randle, and Fitzpatrick with DeAndre/Johnson are others to consider. All have some positives and negatives, but each is low enough owned to propel you to the top on a big day, especially if you nail the right pass catcher to pair with them if they do go off.
At RB, I think Le’veon Bell and Lamar Miller are the two guys who are slipping under the radar. Both guys are workhorses now that see close to 20 touches. Both guys have seen price kind of stagnate recently and both guys have the potentially for 100 yards, a score, and some catches. I was on both a little bit before this, but seeing them slip through the cracks makes me want to up my exposure to them both.
At WR, we mentioned some of the studs to pair, but many of them are good plays regardless of what QB you go with. Of those listed I really like Hopkins, Randle, Floyd, Boldin, and Welker. Hopkins looks so much better then Johnson at the moment and Eagles D has been beat through the air a bunch this year. I will definitely be firing him up. Randle is the top target guy for the Giants and the red zone man. Beckham has the flash and gets the pub lately, but the numbers still say Eli looks Randle’s way first despite others trying to beat this Eli/Beckham connection to death. Floyd got banged up last game and finished with a goose egg. The DFS community as a whole is off of him because of it and new players see that zero and stay away. Word is he practiced in full all week and if you scratch last game, he is still the most explosive and highly used Cards WR weapon for Palmer. Boldin has been getting a lot more targets then he gets credit for. Rams have a good D Line and have been in some high scoring games lately, so this could be a nice spot for him if the game does not get out of hand. Welker is revenge factor #narrativestreet. Pats let him go and when they play Peyton they tend to play an umbrella type secondary to limit the pass, therefore guys who can make the short catch like Welker and Julius should be at a premium over Demaryius Thomas and Sanders here. I can see Manning looking to get Welker in the endzone and hope it happens before he breaks Billy Bob’s record for concussions in Varsity Blue’s.
At TE, I already mentioned I think Julius Thomas is being really overlooked this week. His price is close to Gronk and that 3 TD game from last week is drawing in a lot of attention. Both Thomas and Antonio Gates have the multiple TD ability we look for in our TE and both are in play. If you need to go cheap it seems the guy being passed over is Zac Ertz so keep that in mind as he is same price as Larry Donnell, Kelce, and Reed basically.
At Defense I want to mention one I really like and that is 49ers. The 49ers have not been as good this season as in years past, but remember they are playing a Rams team with the best QB and WR now on the shelf. After releasing Pettis, they now have only Britt, Tavon Austin, Chris Given, and someone who was just added in the rotation. The RB spot is a mess with Stacy, Mason, and Cunningham all seeing about equal work and none of them being overly impressive doing it. The 49ers at 7.2% could be the team that snags a pick 6 or two and gets a bunch of sacks, so work them in your line ups where you can.
Good luck this weekend guys. $2.2 mill on DraftKings and $3 mill on FanDuel is a lot of cash available for the taking. Hopefully these plays help you reach the top of one or both of them and remember if you do and want to say thanks I am accepting donations to my kid’s college funds.
