Astros Vs Red Sox: ALCS Game 1 Betting Lines, Stats, And Predictions – October 15, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on October 15, 2021

The Houston Astros (95-67) meet the Boston Red Sox (92-70) in Game 1 of the ALCS at Minute Maid Park, on Friday at 8:07 PM ET. Framber Valdez takes the mound first for Houston (-150 to win), and Chris Sale is Boston’s (+130) pick to start.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of October 15, 2021, 8:00 PM ET. See the table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to place a bet at DraftKings.

Astros vs Red Sox Betting Lines

Astros Betting Insights

  • This season, the Astros have won 82 out of the 135 games, or 60.7%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • Houston is 62-34 this season when entering a game favored by -150 or more on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Astros, based on the moneyline, is 58%.
  • The Astros and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times in their last 10 games with a total.

Astros Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 6.1
HR 16
ERA 4.45
K/9 9.1

Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Red Sox Betting Insights

  • The Red Sox have been victorous in 27, or 50.9%, of the 53 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • Boston has a win-loss record of 8-6 when favored by +130 or worse by bookmakers this year.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Red Sox have a 42% chance of walking away with the win.
  • In their previous 10 games with a total, the Red Sox and their opponents have combined to clear the over/under on three occasions.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 8-2
Runs Per Game 5.6
HR 20
ERA 3.62
K/9 11.1

Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Chris Sale

  • The Red Sox will send Sale (5-1) to the mound for his 10th start of the season. He is 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 42 2/3 innings pitched.
  • The lefty’s most recent time out came on Friday, Oct. 8 against the Rays, when he tossed one inning, surrendering five earned runs while giving up four hits.
  • The 32-year-old has an ERA of 3.16, with 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings in nine games this season. Opponents are hitting .269 against him.
  • Sale has pitched five or more innings in a game seven times this year heading into this outing.
  • The Red Sox were named the moneyline underdog for one Sale start this season — they won.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of October 15, 2021 at 8:03 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Astros Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 96-67
Home 51-30
Road 45-37
vs LHP (Starters) 35-28
vs RHP (Starters) 61-39
Day Games 3-6
Night Games 93-61

Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Astros Probable Pitcher – Framber Valdez

  • Valdez (11-6) will take the mound for the Astros, his 23rd start of the season.
  • The left-hander’s last start was on Friday, Oct. 8, when he tossed 4 1/3 innings while giving up four earned runs on seven hits in a matchup with the White Sox.
  • The 27-year-old has an ERA of 3.14, a 2.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.240 in 22 games this season.
  • Valdez has started 22 games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings 20 times. He averages 6.0 innings per appearance.
  • His team has been victorious in 63.2% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 12-7.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of October 15, 2021 at 8:03 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Red Sox Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 92-70
Home 49-32
Road 43-38
vs LHP (Starters) 35-31
vs RHP (Starters) 56-39
Day Games 1-3
Night Games 91-67

Astros Hitting Stats

  • The Astros rank ninth-best in MLB play with 221 total home runs.
  • The Astros average 1.3 homers per game when playing at home this season (107 total in home contests).
  • Houston has hit 16 home runs over the last 10 games.
  • Yuli Gurriel leads Houston with a .319 batting average. He’s also hit 15 homers and has 81 RBI.
  • Carlos Correa has collected 155 hits this season and has an OBP of .366. He’s slugging .485 on the year.

Red Sox Hitting Stats

  • The Red Sox’s 219 home runs rank 10th in Major League Baseball.
  • They have averaged 1.4 home runs per game in their 83 road contests this season.
  • Over the last 10 games, Boston has hit 20 home runs.
  • Rafael Devers paces the Red Sox in home runs (38) and runs batted in (115).
  • J.D. Martinez is batting .284 with 42 doubles, three triples, 28 home runs and 55 walks.

Game Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Red Sox (+130)

Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

Powered By Data Skrive using data from

PlayPicks Staff Avatar
Written by
PlayPicks Staff

PlayPicks staff has years of sports betting and DFS knowledge and we share all of that with you for free daily.

View all posts by PlayPicks Staff
Privacy Policy