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MLB DFS DraftKings.com & FanDuel.com Lineups & Picks for May 12, 2018

Welcome back to another Saturday of MLB DFS. We’re back for another full slate of MLB DFS games scheduled for Saturday, 5/12/18. The main slate on DraftKings includes eight games starting at 7:05 p.m. EST, while FanDuel’s main slate also includes eight starting at the same time.

For today, we’re listing our top MLB DFS picks at pitcher, hitter, and stacks to target in Cash and GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. The info below can also be used for crafting your daily fantasy baseball strategy at FantasyDraft.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by an unsuspecting team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate.

5/12/18 MLB DFS TOURNAMENT PICKS

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Best MLB DFS Pitchers for May 12, 2018

Zach Eflin vs. NYM ($8.8k DraftKings, $7.7k FanDuel)

First and foremost, this game could very well get rained out. There’s a high likelihood of rain throughout the afternoon and evening in Philadelphia, so Eflin is a GPP only play. He’s still worth mentioning though, as the Phillies starter is coming off a terrific 6.2 inning, 9-strikeout outing against the San Francisco Giants. The New York Mets are trailing the Phillies in the NL East, and there appears to be newfound hope in this team. While Eflin did struggle in his other start against the Mets (also at home) this season, that was just the first of three disappointing outings in a row, so I’m not that concerned about the recent history. Again, watch the weather and understand that Eflin may give you a goose-egg, but he could also be a helluva leverage play if weather cooperates.

Charlie Morton vs. TEX ($12.9K DraftKings, $9.3k FanDuel)

Morton had a rough outing last weekend, allowing three runs in five innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks (at Chase Field). Today, he is back home in Houston with a much friendlier matchup against the Texas Rangers and the top pitcher score over at RotoQL. Earlier this season, Morton dropped 29 DraftKings points and 52 FanDuel points at home against this Rangers team, striking out 12 over six innings. The Rangers strike out more than every other team (but one, the San Diego Padres) on a per-game average, and Morton already exploited that once. Look for him to do it again. He’s not going to kill your cap space at FanDuel, though he will at DraftKings. He’s GPP only in the latter, but I can see a case for cash at FanDuel.

Chad Kuhl vs. SF ($7.7k DraftKings, $7.3k FanDuel) 

The San Francisco Giants are fresh off getting swept by the Phillies in a four-game series, followed by a loss last night to the Pirates in game one of their series. I don’t think today will go much better. Kuhl, meanwhile, just dropped 33.95 DK points and 55 FD points in his last start, a seven-inning, one-hit gem against the Milwaukee Brewers. He also racked up eight strikeouts in that game, and the Giants have the fourth most strikeouts per game in the league, and they average more than 10 strikeouts per road game. No, Kuhl isn’t an ace, nor is he elite, nor can you feel great about him in cash. But there are savings to be had here, with some strikeout upside. In simpler terms, this seems like the case of a slumping offense facing off against a streaking pitcher. I’ll take Kuhl at home, especially in GPPs.

Michael Wacha @ SD ($8.0k DraftKings, $8.3k FanDuel) 

Wacha seems like a bargain at DraftKings, as the Cardinals starter gets to face a strikeout-prone San Diego team at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. However, he’s had a rocky start to the year, flashing true upside just once, racking up eight strikeouts against the New York Mets. But we’re talking about the Padres here. No team strikeouts more frequently in the league, and San Diego has scored three runs in their last three games combined. My expectation is that the majority of DFS players will completely overlook Wacha, given his game logs don’t tell a promising story. But this matchup is a great one, and the Padres are actually worse at home than on the road (8-16 at Petco, 6-9 away). Wacha has bust potential, so he’s mostly a GPP play for me. That said, I think his elevated strikeout floor and win potential gives him some cash game appeal at DraftKings.

Other pitchers to consider: Noah Syndergaard, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Gibson, Tyson Ross, Jeff Samardzija 

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Best MLB DFS Hitters for May 12, 2018

Nolan Arenado vs. MIL ($5.5k DraftKings, $5.5k FanDuel) – GPP

You’ll be tempted to go with Charlie Blackmon over Arenado, but Milwaukee’s Chase Anderson is pitching much worse against righties than lefties this season, so I actually lean toward the third basemen. Arenado hasn’t collected any major stat lines in the past few weeks, but history is on his side. Against Chase Anderson, he has four home runs in 27 at bats, good for a 1.111 OPS. This season, Anderson is allowing a 25% higher OPS to righties than lefties. This takes place at Coors Field, where, over the past three seasons, Anderson has allowed 12 runs in 14.2 innings. Give me Blackmon in GPPs, especially over at DraftKings, where he may be a few hundred under where he should be.

Ian Desmond vs. MIL ($3.9k DraftKings, $3.3k FanDuel)

Remember when I just called out Anderson’s 12 ER over 14.2 innings at Coors Field from 2015-2017? Yeah, well, like Arenado, Desmond has a good matchup and a good, albeit short history against Anderson. In five at bats, he’s hit safely three times, which, yea — that’s not a major sample size. But I project a Chase Anderson implosion, which makes a lot of Colorado guys in play for me. Desmond, to be fair, has struggled at Coors Field this season, with a .433 OPS. But I can’t imagine that will last long, considering from 2015-2017 he boasted a 1.021 OPS in 189 at bats at Coors. This is a bit like trying to catch a falling knife, but I predict some positive regression for Desmond. While we’re at it, I think Charlie Blackmon may manage to break his Coors Field struggles today, too. As for Desmond, he’s GPP only, and preferably at FanDuel, where he comes in $600 below DraftKings.

Alex Bregman vs. TEX ($4.0k DraftKings, $3.3k FanDuel)

Doug Fister has struggled historically against this Astros lineups, against righties in particular. George Springer is an excellent play, but if you’re looking to pay up for Morton or Syndergaard, you may need to take the savings at most of your infield positions. Bregman is cheap at FanDuel, and probably just right at DraftKings. However, he is relatively safe and carries some upside, as he’s three-for-four lifetime against Fister, is better against RHP than against LHP, and has a 1.037 OPS over the past seven days. During that span, he’s racked up seven hits in 24 at bats. Oh, and two of those hits were home runs. He’d hit just one home run in his previous 119 at bats.

Joey Votto @ LAD ($4.5k DraftKings, $4.1k FanDuel)

Three things: Votto crushes righties, he has a better OPS on the road vs. at home, and he has a much better OPS play at night than during the day. Now, it’s a reach to say that any, or even all of these factors make Votto an elite play today. No, that would be the pitcher he’s facing, Ross Stripling, a relief pitcher making another spot start. At the top level, Stripling is having a good year. He has a sub-2.00 ERA, has two holds, and strikes guys out at a decent clip (just over 9 K/9). But he’s allowing opponents to hit for a .994 OPS as a starter (compared to a .556 OPS as a reliever), and he’s winless as a starter this season, granted that only consists of two outings. But he’s also never made it beyond the fourth inning this season. Votto, and several other Reds, should be on your radar. To be more specific, Votto is a solid GPP play across the industry, and I don’t hate him in cash either, considering the matchup and Votto’s consistency.

Bobby Wilson @ LAA ($2.4k DraftKings, $2.0k FanDuel)

Make sure he suits up, as he is sharing duties. But Wilson did catch for Kyle Gibson in his last start, and Gibson is back on the mound today. Many will fade Twins bats against Shohei Ohtani, but Ohtani is exploitable, especially with right-handed bats. Wilson is basically a punt with upside, as he’s fresh off a double and two RBIs in his second Major League game as a Twin. The 35-year-old probably wouldn’t have seen the big league’s without Jason Castro’s injuries, but, as of this writing, he’s ranked atop the list of best batter matchups for DK over at RotoQL. And he gets you impressive savings with realistic potential for a return on that investment.

Update: Wilson is out. I recommend paying up for Francisco Cervelli against Jeff Samardzija, or pay down for Jeff Bundy at Coors. 

Other hitters to consider: Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, Brian Anderson, Ozzie Albies, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez, Nomar Mazara, Gregory Polanco, Eugenio Suarez, Matt Kemp, Lorenzo Cain, Jordy Mercer

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MLB DFS Stacks to Consider for May 12, 2018

Twins vs. Shohei Ohtani (Angels) — deep GPP
Rockies vs. Chase Anderson (Brewers)
Reds vs. Ross Stripling (Dodgers)
Astros vs. Doug Fister (Rangers)
Miami Marlins vs. Jarlin Garcia (Braves)

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Nate began playing DFS back in 2013, focusing on low stakes MLB contests over at DraftKings. Now, the vast majority of his DFS time is spent identifying optimal picks and player exposure for NBA and NFL GPPs, though MMA and eSports are his DFS guilty pleasures. With a focus on constant iteration, Nate spends a lot of his non-DFS time reading books and essays by leaders in finance and entrepreneurship for application to his DFS strategies...with a bit of cryptocurrency trading on the side.