Before the 2021-22 season kicks off, there is a wide array of betting markets to consider at online sportsbooks, including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and more.
Here at PlayPicks, we’ve combed through the NBA odds and analyzed the regular season win totals market to bring you the best season-long wagers on teams that are likely to go over or under their predicted total in the first full 82-game season since the 2018-19 season.
For other preseason picks including bets for the NBA title, conferences, divisions, and more, check markets for teams to win the title, conference winners, and division winners, check out our NBA futures betting breakdown.
2021-22 NBA Win Total Predictions | Best Bets For Going Over
Atlanta Hawks Over :
We begin with the first team on the board by alphabetic order. The Hawks are an easy team to back this regular season after Trae Young led them to a surprising appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals.
They went 41-31 last year (on pace for 47 wins in an 82-game sample) with a 29-15 record at home in a season where fan attendance was limited. Young and company tested their mettle on the road in raucous playoff environments, and this team will be more experienced and deeper this year with De’Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, and Bogdan Bogdanovic ready to bounce back from injuries.
Capitalize on the 46.5-win mark at DraftKings (-115 odds) since FanDuel has the Hawks implied to win 47.5 games. Atlanta has the sixth-easiest schedule in the NBA this year according to last season’s win totals and it’s important to note that once Nate McMillan took over as head coach, the Hawks were on pace to win a league-high 58 games.
Los Angeles Clippers Over :
This low projection implies that the Clippers won’t be able to stick towards the top of the loaded Western Conference with Kawhi Leonard (ACL) out until at least March. Yet didn’t we just watch this team plow through regular-season powerhouse Utah en route to the conference finals?
Tyronn Lue is an excellent coach, who is capable of adjusting his teams’ style of play on a nightly basis to offset the absence of Leonard. New addition Eric Bledsoe may take flak for previous playoff performances, but he’s objectively a better regular-season player than Patrick Beverley, and Reggie Jackson, Terrance Mann, and Paul George should all be brimming with confidence after their respective postseason performers. The public expects LAC to take a step back after they were on pace for 54 wins last year, so you can actually get +116 odds at FanDuel for the Clips to top 45 wins.
Charlotte Hornets Over :
The Hornets are projected to win 38.5 games at DraftKings, but the over is even more exploitable at 37.5 wins at FanDuel. Charlotte went 24-20 with Gordon Hayward active last season and just 9-19 when he was out due to injury. Hayward has had a lot of bad luck since suffering a catastrophic ankle injury in Boston, yet he’s now 4 years removed from that traumatic experience and he was scoring 19.6 PPG while shooting 41.5% from 3-point range when active last season.
LaMelo Ball obviously had a huge impact during his Rookie of the Year campaign and new addition Kelly Oubre Jr. should fit in well with a young team that likes to run. Mason Plumlee and Ish Smith are valuable veteran additions to bolster the Hornets bench and James Borrego had his squad on pace to win 38 games last year despite a rash of injuries.
2021-22 NBA Win Total Best Bets | Predicting Which Unders To Take
New York Knicks Under :
Most NBA pundits expect the Knicks to take a step backward this season, for good reason. They were certainly fortunate that opponents posted a league-worst 33.8% from deep against Tom Thibodeau’s pack-it-in defense last year, and their offensive struggles continued into the playoffs, as they were waxed by the Hawks.
The Knicks will hope that Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier can help rectify some of their offensive issues, but Walker is significantly diminished at this stage in his career and his ongoing knee troubles could knock him out of action at any point. The health of New York’s centers, Mitchell Robinson and Nerlens Noel, is also fair to question given their histories and the fact that Robinson is coming off foot surgery. The Eastern Conference is much stronger this year towards the bottom and Thibs might not be able to play the “underdog card” as often for this squad as it deals with increased expectations.
Golden State Warriors Under :
Former GM turned analyst John Hollinger projects the Warriors to win just 39 games this season. The fact that Golden State is projected to win nearly 48 games and is listed as the second favorite to win the championship (+1100 at DraftKings) seems to be far afield from how savvy basketball minds evaluate this team.
Steph Curry is a transcendent talent and the Warriors should be fine on offense while they wait for Klay Thompson to return a couple of months into the season. Yet Thompson is coming off a pair of devastating injuries and there are no guarantees about his playing time, or his ability to return as a top-tier defender. The Warriors of last decade depended on Thompson and Draymond Green playing elite defense and rebounding the ball near the top of the league.
They’ve been among the worst teams in the NBA in total rebounding rate over the past two seasons and James Wiseman is trending towards a bust as their pick to help Green down low. With Jordan Poole and Curry jacking threes, this team should be exciting to watch, but they may not win too many close games against Western Conference powers.