Braves Vs Brewers: NLDS Game 4 Betting Lines, Stats, And Predictions – October 12, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on October 12, 2021

Christian Yelich has 99 hits, and will try to notch his 100th when the Milwaukee Brewers (95-67) play the Atlanta Braves (88-73) at 5:15 PM ET on Tuesday. Charlie Morton is pitching for Atlanta (-155 to win), and Eric Lauer is Milwaukee’s (+135) choice to start.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of October 12, 2021, 5:00 PM ET. See the table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to place a bet at DraftKings.

Braves vs Brewers Betting Lines

Braves Betting Insights

  • The Braves have entered the game as favorites 112 times this season and won 65, or 58%, of those games.
  • Atlanta is 35-20 this season when entering a game favored by -155 or more on the moneyline.
  • The Braves have a 58.8% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • When it comes to hitting the over, the Braves and their opponents are 4-6 in their last 10 games with a total.

Braves Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 8-2
Runs Per Game 3.9
HR 11
ERA 1.82
K/9 8.9

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Brewers Betting Insights

  • The Brewers have won in 19, or 52.8%, of the 36 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
  • This season, Milwaukee has been victorious five times in 13 chances when named as an underdog of at least +135 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Brewers have a 41.2% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • In their previous 10 games with a total, the Brewers and their opponents have combined to clear the over/under on six occasions.

Brewers Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 3-7
Runs Per Game 3.1
HR 7
ERA 4.93
K/9 8.3

Brewers Probable Pitcher – Eric Lauer

  • Lauer (7-5) gets the starting nod for the Brewers in his 21st start of the season. He has a 3.03 ERA in 118 2/3 innings pitched, with 117 strikeouts.
  • In his most recent appearance on Saturday, Oct. 2 against the Dodgers, the lefty tossed five innings, allowing five earned runs while surrendering six hits.
  • The 26-year-old has an ERA of 3.03, with 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 24 games this season. Opponents have a .210 batting average against him.
  • Lauer has pitched five or more innings in a game 16 times this season heading into this matchup.
  • The Brewers have been the moneyline underdog in five of Lauer’s starts this season, and they went 1-4 in those matchups.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of October 12, 2021 at 5:03 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Braves Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 88-73
Home 42-38
Road 46-35
vs LHP (Starters) 23-18
vs RHP (Starters) 63-53
Day Games 15-13
Night Games 73-60

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Braves Probable Pitcher – Charlie Morton

  • Morton (14-6) will take to the mound for the Braves and make his 34th start of the season.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance was on Friday, when he threw six innings against the Brewers, giving up two earned runs while allowing three hits.
  • The 37-year-old’s 3.30 ERA ranks 17th, his 1.030 WHIP ranks seventh, his 216 strikeouts rank ninth, his 10.50 K/9 ranks 10th, and his 2.80 BB/9 ranks seventh among qualified pitchers in the majors this year.
  • In 33 starts, Morton has pitched through or past the fifth inning 29 times. He has a season average of 5.2 frames per outing.
  • His team has won 51.7% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (15-14).
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of October 12, 2021 at 5:03 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Brewers Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 95-67
Home 45-36
Road 50-31
vs LHP (Starters) 20-17
vs RHP (Starters) 75-45
Day Games 28-18
Night Games 67-49

Braves Hitting Stats

  • The Braves are third-best in MLB play with 239 total home runs.
  • The Braves average 1.4 homers per home game this season (117 total at home).
  • Atlanta has 11 home runs during the past 10 games.
  • Austin Riley leads Atlanta in home runs with 33, runs batted in with 107 and his batting average of .303 is also best on his team.
  • Freddie Freeman has 180 hits and an OBP of .393 to go with a slugging percentage of .503 this season.

Brewers Hitting Stats

  • The Brewers have hit 194 homers this season, which ranks 18th in the league.
  • In 82 games on the road this season, they’ve hit 99 homers, an average of 1.2 per contest.
  • Milwaukee has hit seven home runs over the last 10 games.
  • Willy Adames has six doubles, a triple, five home runs and 10 walks while batting .197.
  • Luis Urias is hitting .249 with 25 doubles, a triple, 23 home runs and 63 walks.

Game Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Brewers (+135)

Over/Under Pick: Over (8)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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