FanDuel Ownership: Week 8

Written By PlayPicks Staff on October 24, 2014 - Last Updated on June 20, 2018

This week we are going to use the $25 Fan Duel Bomb to check on ownership percentages. Keep in mind that at every position tonight the Thursday games were well represented so these numbers should all be 30% higher Sunday with no Broncos or Chargers to choose from. Here’s a look at some guys who stood out:

High Owned Guys

QB

Russell Wilson 10.3%

Tony Romo 7.8%

Aaron Rodgers 7.3%

Carson Palmer 6.9%

RB

Jerrick McKinnon 28.5%

Shane Vereen 14.7%

Lamar Miller 10.6%

Ahmad Bradshaw 9.8%

DeMarco Murray 9.6%

WR

Jordy Nelson 20.6%

T Y Hilton 14.8%

Doug Baldwin 11.6%

Mike Floyd 11.5%

Dez Bryant 9.8%

Sammy Watkins 9.6%

Randall Cobb 9.6%

TE

Jordan Reed 19.5%

GRONK 7.9%

Zac Ertz 7.1%

D

Dallas

ANALYSIS:

I know I usually bash the high owned list and give you reasons to fade a lot of these guys, but honestly at QB this week, I think I get it. Russell Wilson to me is a stay away, but I don’t feel really good about doing it. I don’t think he goes out and does something twice that no other QB in NFL history has ever done, but he could still have a big game. My negative is he will be 12-15% owned in the Millions, his price is up, and it just feels a lot like points chasing. Romo was a top 5 QB last week and I like Dez a lot this week so I can see why people go Romo. Everyone knows they love to run, so they are going to see a few more 8 man fronts now and that’s only going to make Romo’s life easier. Rodgers has one of the best match ups today. Saints have been bad on D and he is usually good for at least a couple scores. O/U on that game is creeping up so I can’t knock a Rodgers pick, but it will cost you. Lastly Palmer is very cheap on FD for a guy with some stud WRs against a D that has been torched. I know they are getting healthy, but Cousins and Davis would be your starting NFC QBs in the pro bowl if they got the Eagles every week. I can see Palmer paying off his price and then some without it being too much of a stretch.

Before I get into individual RBs this week, I just wanted to speak of the group as a whole. A lot of the high owned guys are lower priced meaning the contrarian thing to do is pay up at RB and get yourself away from the price range most of those guys are in. Instead of trying to pick which marginal lower cost guy goes off, may be paying up to a different level will not only help you outscore others at that spot, but it will help you have a unique rosters elsewhere as most guys are going RB cheap to fit stud WR/QBs into place. Of the high owned guys I like McKinnon but will fade at 28.5% for a guy who technically is not the starter. I can fade Vereen too on a .5 PPR site when Bellichek is his coach. No telling what the mad scientist will do with touches. Miller and Bradshaw are both interesting to me. If Richardson sits then Bradshaw makes a really solid play. Miller is a solid back with no guy breathing down his neck and a pretty decent match up. I could see 80 and a score easy with a much higher ceiling. The only really pricey guy in the list is DeMarco. NFL lead rusher is talented and well used, but I prefer others in that range. It’s tough for a QB and a RB to both be highly owned as most times that works out bad for at least one of them.

At WR, Jordy is a star and a great player and my top option, but at 20% I will limit my exposure somewhat. T Y is who many believe is bumped up with Wayne out. They were more a 1 and 1a in Indy so far, but now it’s T Y’s show. Could be a Sanu for Green or Tate for Calvin situation if he takes advantage of the extra targets. Since I am off Wilson I am off Baldwin too. Two weeks ago no one roster him even on a dare. 8 days later and he is almost 12% in the bomb? Good luck with that guys, I can’t see a repeat performance. The other guys I really like and do not think are over owned are Dez and Sammy Watkins. Both guys are at 9%+ and that is not too high to scare me off. I love the production and matchup for both, so let them fly and hope for the TDs to rain down.

At TE I think Jordan Reed is criminally cheap. His price vs. potential production is too out of whack. He could be $1000 higher and still be about that highly owned. I’m not saying I agree or disagree about pricing, but that is easily the way most people saw it and bet it. Gronk and Ertz are both guys I will be using. Ownership not too crazy and both have TD upside. I obviously would take Gronk if money was no issue, but would be open to either depending on how the rest of the roster shapes up.

LOW OWNED GUYS

QB

Tom Brady 4.1%

Andrew Luck 3.8%

Drew Brees 3.6%

Nick Foles 1.8%

Cam Newton 1.1%

Big Ben Roethlisberger 0.7%

RB

Jamal Charles 7%

Andre Ellington 6.7%

Matt Forte 6.3%

Marshawn Lynch 5.7%

Le’Veon Bell 5.2%

Arian Foster 5%

Eddie Lacy 2.1%

WR

Mike Wallace 5.1%

Antonio Brown 4.8%

Julian Edelman 3.4%

Julio Jones 2.3%

Vincent Jackson 1.5%

DeSean Jackson 0.8%

TE

Owen Daniel 4.5%

Delanie Walker 3.4%

Heath Miller 1.8%

Greg Olsen 1.7%

D

Texans 8.9%

Analysis:

What jumps out at me this week is the long list of high priced RB all at around the same ownership percentages. All of them could leapfrog you if you choose right. With so many people choosing to save at RB this week, it could be the time to go pricey at RB and swerve off the masses. It seems people spent up at QB and WR for Peyton and Demaryius though, so you really had to take at least one punt here and there to fit them. I can see these numbers coming off a bit, especially with less people trying to fit in Peyton, DT, JT and the boys at the high prices, but Jordy and Rodgers is not exactly a cheap combo either and they are highly owned already here. I like a bunch of these guys, and if you really need to save money by grabbing a less obvious and price friendly play I would go with Justin Forsett who is much lower owned then a McKinnon is at a similar price point.

At QB, I love the fact that Cam is only 1.1%. I think his price is friendlier on DK so maybe some people hedged against the fade here by throwing some of him in there. Pair him with his overlooked and slightly expensive TE and you got the makings of a low owned combo that can truly smash you through the big money in your GPPs. I like Brees and Luck a lot as well. Both guys run the shows and are two of the top 5 guys in the game. Both expensive, but both have the chance to be top scorer of the week. The real gems to me though are Nick Foles and Big Ben. Foles is 1.8% and can be paired with Maclin and/or Ertz with high confidence. Arizona is tough to run on, so Foles should be forced to throw more. While that might be scary to some, it is also potentially lucrative if he hits on some of those bombs to Maclin down the field. Big Ben is not a particularly good match up that has me drooling, but he is under 1% owned, his price is cheaper than most and you can pair him with another low owned pass catcher in Antonio Brown, so the combo is worth a flyer. Big ben at 0.7 means he has odds of about 1 in 140 of being the top QB this week and I think he is better than that.

At WR these a few interesting guys. Edelman is a target monster, I like him more on DK where the price is lower and those catches are a full point, but he could be sneaky here. Julio Jones at 2.3% always has GPP winning upside. Atlanta has looked bad the last few, so that’s why you get the discount here. DeSean Jackson is under 1% as well. He is a boom or bust guy if I ever saw one. He doesn’t get a huge amount of targets, but for 3 of his last five games he has made the most of them with over 100 yards and a few TDs. While he is by no means a safe play, his upside and low ownership make him a great flyer to take a shot on.

We already mentioned Greg Olsen who is flying way under the radar and has been the most consistent option at TE the last few weeks, so he is in play. Delanie Walker is polarizing for me, because they are now starting a third string rookie QB. That could be doom for him or it could help him as he is the security blanket. Either way, I think it’s going to be a long day for a rookie QB against that stud Defense. Heath Miller is very low owned and could be paired with Ben to be different. I do not love him though, so it’s more a flyer then a solid play. Owen Daniels on the other hand is sneaky and has a chance for a good game. If you want a low owned guy that is kind of cheap, He is my pick for this week. Again I still like paying up for TE production, so you will see a lot of Gronk and Olsen on my lineups.

The only defense I want to mention is the Texans this week. Rookie QB going up against a JJ Watt led defense that may have Clowney back as well. There’s no one on Titans Offense that scares me even a little. I’m not going to lie, this is the week you need to spend up, because they could put up a 20/30 point game.

 

The only question this week is how top heavy you want your payouts to be? DK has another Milly Maker and FD is upping the ante with a $2.5 million prize pool. There is no better time than now to be playing DFS, so let’s all hope this is our week on one site or the other.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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