MLB DFS DraftKings.com & FanDuel.com Lineups & Picks for May 7, 2018
Happy Monday, DFSers. We’re back for another full slate of MLB DFS games scheduled for 5/7/18. The main slates on both DraftKings and FanDuel kick off at 7:05 p.m. EST.
For today, we’re listing our top MLB DFS picks at pitcher, hitter, and stacks to target in Cash and GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. The info below can also be used for crafting your daily fantasy baseball strategy at FantasyDraft.
Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by an unsuspecting team.
Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate.
5/7/18 MLB DFS TOURNAMENT PICKS
Fastball: $33 entry, $250k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50,000 to 1st!
Knuckleball: $5 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings)
MLB Rally: $9.99 entry, $100k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $20,000 to 1st!
Grand Slam: $55 entry, $200k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $50,000 to 1st!
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Best MLB DFS Pitchers for May 7, 2018
Stephen Strasburg @ SD ($13.6k DraftKings, $10.0k FanDuel)
There isn’t much to go around on this slate as far as pitchers. Throw in that Stephen Strasburg is facing a San Diego Padres team that strikes out a lot, and you’ve got a great DFS play, albeit a chalk one. On FanDuel, where he’s just $10k, Strasburg should be popular. On DraftKings, less so, as he’s $13.6k. There, I think you don’t have to worry about as much ownership. But I digress. Strasburg is averaging 26.67 DK points per game over his last 10, the highest on the slate. And the Padres are striking out nine times per game over their last 10. Strasburg also checks out at RotoQL, where he’s the top-ranked pitcher on the slate. His 28 strikeouts over his last 20.1 innings bode well heading to Petco Park. Strasburg is a Cash and GPP play, and it’s worth mentioning this slate doesn’t have loads of value at pitching.
Michael Fulmer @ TEX ($8.0k DraftKings, $8.3k FanDuel)
One guy who falls in the mid-tier salary class is Michael Fulmer. He’s not cheap enough to open up massive savings across several offensive positions, but he’s not expensive enough to shoehorn you into, I don’t know, Freddy Galvis? Tonight, Fulmer is on the road facing a Texas Rangers team that was striking out left and right in their last series, a disastrous one against the Boston Red Sox. Over their last 10, the Rangers have a slate high 10.6 strikeouts per game. Fulmer has 27 strikeouts across six starts, which isn’t overwhelmingly encouraging, but his nine K’s against the Pirates two weeks ago could suggest he’s turning a corner. However, he’s GPP only for me. The strikeouts haven’t been consistent enough to consider him safe, but his matchup is probably the second best on the slate, at a substantial savings down from Strasburg.
Dallas Keuchel @ OAK ($9.4k DraftKings, $8.8k FanDuel)
Keuchel’s one-win 2018 season probably wasn’t what he had in mind, but here we are. The Astros ace is just 1-5 this season, but some positive regression should be in his future. Tonight, he’ll be on the road against an Oakland Athletics team that doesn’t have a great offense. Over their last 10, the A’s have 9.6 strikeouts per game, the second highest rate on the slate. And they have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last six games. Keuchel has also been better on the road than at home this season, a startling development considering his historical home performance has always exceeded his performance on the road. I’m highly confident he’ll see better than average strikeout numbers in this one, while never really getting into too much trouble. As such, I’ll take him in Cash and GPP. He’s an excellent pivot from Strasburg if you have to, as Keuchel has elite tendencies.
Other pitchers to consider: Kyle Hendricks, Fernando Romero, Jeff Samardzija
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Best MLB DFS Hitters for May 7, 2018
Brandon Belt @ PHI ($4.1k DraftKings, $3.8k FanDuel)
With five hits in his last four games (and a four-game hitting streak), Brandon Belt is in a great spot against the Phillies. Zach Eflin has made one start this year, and he dominated, more or less, with six innings of one-run ball against the Marlins. But his lone real mistake came against a lefty (and that mistake left the yard). Over his short career, he’s allowed a .932 OPS against southpaws, compared to a .784 OPS to righties. That stacks up well for the streaking Belt. He also happens to be 3-for-6 lifetime against Eflin with a double and a home run.
Nomar Mazara vs. DET ($4.3k DraftKings, $3.3k FanDuel)
While I do like Fulmer today, it’s mostly because I think he’ll see a decent amount of strikeouts, not because I think he’s going to shut the Rangers out. Enter Nomar Mazara, a lefty who has a limited but positive history against Fulmer (3-for-6, zero strikeouts). He also has a .789 OPS against lefties vs. a .577 OPS against righties. While Mazara ended his series against Boston by going 0-for-6 in the final two games, prior to those duds, he was four-for-nine with two home runs in the first two games of the series. And he had homered in four games straight before the back-to-back 0-for-3s. Fulmer is allowing a 33% higher OPS to lefties than righties. Thus, the splits tell the story here. I like Mazara here, even if I roster Fulmer, as I think you can have your cake (strikeouts) with Fulmer and still eat it, too (by taking advantage of the splits with Mazara).
Logan Morrison @ STL ($3.9k DraftKings, $2.7k FanDuel)
I went with Logan Morrison the other day, and while he fell short of the big game I had hoped for, he’s always an intriguing play when facing a non-elite right-handed pitcher. This season, his OPS against lefties is nearly twice as high as his OPS against righties. Tonight, the Cardinals trot out John Gant, a right-hander with blowup potential. In his short career, Gant has allowed 36 earned runs across 70.1 innings, including 11 home runs. And I think his three-inning gem to start this season is a total facade. Starting a game is different than a lengthy relief session, and I like all Twins bats in this one. Morrison just happens to be at the top of the list given his splits and penchant for the long ball.
Adrian Gonzalez @ CIN ($3.5k DraftKings, $2.6k FanDuel)
I’m worried about Homer Bailey today. The Reds veteran has allowed a .304 BA to this Mets squad across 79 at bats. Accounting for almost 1/3 of them is the veteran first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. He has faced Bailey 26 times, with one walk and eleven hits, including six home runs. That is a very hard stat to ignore (specifically the home runs), and while Gonzalez is well past his prime, all three of his home runs on the season have come against right-handed pitchers. Bailey’s been through a career with plenty of injuries, and at this point he’s basically throwing batting practice. He’s 0-7, thanks a lot to the team he plays on, and has allowed two home runs in each of his last three games. I like the Mets today in a stack, but Gonzalez provides some incredible value, especially at FanDuel where he’s just $2.6k.
Other hitters to consider: Alen Hanson, Pablo Sandoval, Eddie Rosario, Matt Adams, Bryce Harper, Jedd Gyorko, Todd Frazier, Asdrubal Cabrera, George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jake Marisnick, Maikel Franco, Andrew McCutchen, Trea Turner
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MLB DFS Stacks to Consider for May 7, 2018
Reds vs. P.J. Conlon (Mets)
Mets vs. Homer Bailey (Reds)
Tigers vs. Matt Moore (Rangers)
Twins vs. John Gant (Cardinals)
