NASCAR DFS Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Picks for AAA 400 Drive for Autism
Each week, we’ll have an early week cheat sheet for the DFS NASCAR contests at DraftKings. This week, we look at the AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover.
NASCAR DFS CONTESTS
Piston: $10 entry, $300k guaranteed – $75,000 to 1st
Chrome Horn: $4 entry, $100k guaranteed – $10,000 to 1st
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Kyle Larson – The steep, concrete short tracks are Larson’s strong suit. He’s scored over 90 fantasy points in three of the last four Dover races. At Bristol last season, Larson scored over 70 fantasy NASCAR points in both races. A couple weeks ago at Bristol, Larson scored the most points (150 points). As the groove moves around throughout the race, Larson will only get better.
2. Kyle Busch – If Dover is the bigger version of Bristol, then the Bristol winner should be a favorite. Busch had a great long run car at Bristol. Once the snowy weather passed and the race went green, Busch started piling up the fantasy NASCAR points (104 points). Not only is Busch the last Bristol winner, he’s the last Dover winner. He won the fall race and scored 76 points. In the spring, Busch had a very fast race car at Dover, but it was ruined by a pit crew mistake.
3. Martin Truex, Jr. – An early race wreck ruined Truex’s day at Bristol. Last fall, his hopes were dashed by green flag penalty at Bristol. In the spring race, he scored the second most fantasy points. Truex has been much more consistent at Dover. Truex has two wins at his home track, and he has scored a lot of fantasy points at Dover. Over the last seven Dover races, Truex has averaged 79 fantasy points per race.
4. Kevin Harvick – This season has been defined by Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick. It has been a couple months since Harvick has visited victory lane, but that’s not because of the car or the driver. Poor starting positions and poor pit crew performances have been a thorn in Harvick’s side. Over a four race span from 2014 to 2016, Harvick averaged 124 points per race at Dover. He scored 216 points in one of those race. He clearly likes this track.
5. Jimmie Johnson – Forget about Johnson’s struggles this year. At Bristol, he made the DFSR fantasy NASCAR top 5 and went on to earn a 3rd place finish. Bristol is a good track for Johnson, but Dover is a great track. That’s an understatement. Johnson is the greatest racer at Dover ever. He earned his 11th Dover win last spring. He started that race last.
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LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Aric Almirola – In 2015, Almirola earned two top 5 finishes at Dover. The #10 car performed well at Dover with Danica Patrick behind the wheel (3 top 20s in the last four Dover races).
2. Ryan Newman – This is Newman’s best track. He has three wins at Dover, but those came 14 years ago. Neman has a top 20 finish in each of his last 13 Dover races.
3. Kasey Kahne – In the last six Dover races, Kahne’s has a top 15 average running position in each race. He no longer has Hendrick power, but he has the skill to earn a top 15 finish.
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Kyle Busch – He didn’t win last week, but he finished. Busch has the best average finish in NASCAR.
Kevin Harvick – Talladega wasn’t a win, but a top 5 is impressive. Harvick and Kyle Busch are on another level.
Joey Logano – At Richmond, Logano scored the second most fantasy points. At Talladega, Logano scored the most fantasy points.
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Kyle Busch (Fall 2017)
Jimmie Johnson (Spring 2017)
Martin Truex, Jr. (Fall 2016)
Matt Kenseth (Spring 2016)
Kevin Harvick (Fall 2015)
PICK TO WIN
Kyle Larson – First of all, I’ve picked the race winner four weeks in a row, so I shouldn’t even have to give a reason at this point. Larson is due just like Busch and Logano were, and this is one of his best tracks.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.