NASCAR DFS Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Picks for Geico 500
Each week, we’ll have an early week cheat sheet for the DFS NASCAR contests at DraftKings. This week, we look at the Geico 500 at Talladega.
NASCAR DFS CONTESTS
Big One: $10 entry, $300k guaranteed – $75,000 to 1st!
Slingshot: $3 entry, $90k guaranteed
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Brad Keselowski – There are three fantasy NASCAR strategies this week. Pick drivers that finish plate races, pick drivers that win plate races, and intense prayer or meditation depending on your rules of worship. Keselowski wins at plate tracks. He’s won three out of the last seven plate races. The Penske Fords are the fastest plate track cars, and Keselowski has master all of the plate race driving techniques.
2. Kyle Busch – A fourth win in a row is a lot to ask from any driver. Winning the fourth at Talladega is nearly impossible. Talladega is one part skill and one part luck. Winning three races in a row requires a lot of skill and a lot of luck. Kyle Busch started the season out with terrible luck. He fell short week after week, but his luck swung the other way. If plate racing is all about being lucky and avoiding the wrecks, then Kyle Busch is your man. No one is luckier than Kyle Busch right now. No one has more skill either.
3. Joey Logano – You will notice in the track history section below that Team Penske is really good at Talladega. They win at the restrictor plate track in Alabama a lot (5 wins in the last 7 races). Logano has three plate track wins, but this year he became an even bigger plate track threat. TJ Majors joined Team Penske as Joey Logano’s spotter. Majors was Dale Jr.’s longtime spotter. His strength is plate racing.
4. Kevin Harvick – When all else fails, pick a fast car. Harvick has not won at a plate track in a while. In fact, he hasn’t earned a top 20 at a plate track since 2016. That’s plate racing. From 2014-2016, Harvick had 10 top 15 finishes in the 12 plate races. The Fords have been the premier cars at the plate tracks, and Harvick’s team has been a premier team this season.
5. Aric Almirola – It’s the Daytona 500, not the Daytona 499. If it was the Daytona 499, then Aric Almirola would have been the winner. Unfortunately for him, in the last mile he was dumped by Austin Dillon. Since that race, Almirola has a top 15 finish in all but one race. Austin Dillon on the other hand, has sunk back into irrelevance. It’s not just the Daytona 500 that makes Almirola a great fantasy NASCAR play. He’s the highest ranked plate racer in NASCAR. Since NASCAR implemented its latest low downforce package, Almirola has the best average finish at plate tracks.
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LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Paul Menard – One spot behind Almirola in average finish at the plate tracks in the new low downforce package is Menard. It’s not an exciting pick, but it’s a plate track. Exciting picks wreck. Dull picks survive.
2. David Ragan – Once upon a time, David Ragan drove his little Front Row Motorsports car to victory lane at Talladega. Last year, Ragan earned 3 top 10s at the plate tracks.
3. Matt DiBenedetto – Fantasy NASCAR players are going to fill their lineups with long shot drivers starting in the back of the field. The stats go out of the window. Why not pick a driver that has lived a charmed life this season?
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RECENT SUCCESS
Kyle Busch – Texas, win. Bristol, win. Richmond, win. The definition of recent success.
Kevin Harvick – Atlanta, win. Las Vegas, win. Phoenix, win. The definition of recent success.
Clint Bowyer – It’s been a month and a half since someone not named Kyle Busch won a race. That driver was Clint Bowyer. He has 6 top 10s, too.
TRACK HISTORY
Brad Keselowski (Fall 2017)
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (Spring 2017)
Joey Logano (Fall 2016)
Brad Keselowski (Spring 2016)
Joey Logano (Fall 2015)
PICK TO WIN
Joey Logano – It’s been over a year since Logano last won a Cup race. This is the week the streak ends.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
