NASCAR DFS Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Picks for Food City 500
Each week, we’ll have an early week cheat sheet for the NASCAR DFS contests at DraftKings. This week, we look at the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway.
NASCAR DFS TOURNAMENT PICKS
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1.Kyle Busch – Bristol has undergone a handful of changes over the last eight years. Busch was unbeatable at Bristol from 2005 to 2011 (5 wins). After 2011, Bristol continuously tinkered with the track, and Busch’s dominance faded. He still led laps, but he could not finish. That changed last fall. Kyle Busch returned to victory lane at Bristol for the first time in seven years. Busch has been the most consistent top-tier driver this season.
2. Kevin Harvick – Last year wasn’t great for Harvick at Bristol. That shouldn’t surprise anyone. The Stewart-Haas Fords were dealing with a manufacturer switch. Harvick didn’t find speed until the playoffs. That being said, Harvick’s average running position was inside the top 10 in both Bristol races last season. In 2016, Harvick scored 65 hog points (combined fast lap and laps led points) in the fall race and 43 hog points in the spring race.
3. Kyle Larson – In the fall 2017 Bristol race, Larson scored the 4th most fantasy points. He scored the most fantasy points in the spring race. So far this season, Larson has not been as fast as Harvick and Busch, but he’s right behind them. It appears that the aerodynamic disadvantage experienced by the Chevy teams following the switch to the new Camaro ZL1 has become less of an issue. At Bristol, these cars bump into each so much that the new body won’t be a factor. It’s all about skill and setup, and Larson has both.
4. Martin Truex, Jr. – It’s really easy to forget the events that unfold in each race. Most daily fantasy NASCAR players will see Truex’s fall race and fade him. On lap 207, Truex had to serve a pass through penalty. That’s a death sentence at Bristol. In the spring race, Truex scored the most fantasy NASCAR hog points (73.5 points). He should have won that race, but got hit with a penalty with 73 laps left. If he can clean up the pit road mistakes, he should be fine at Bristol.
5. Erik Jones – This might seem a little bit out there, but Jones nearly won this race last fall. He led 260 laps at Bristol. His team will likely unload fast this weekend, and Jones clearly knows how to get around this race track. Jones led those 260 laps with Kyle Busch in his rearview mirror. He has proven himself. This season, Jones has been a top 10 car every week.
LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Matt DiBenedetto – The chaos at Bristol opens the door for low priced fantasy NASCAR drivers to score big. Don’t get it wrong. DiBenedetto’s success is not solely based on others wrecking. This is his best race track (4 top 25s in 6 races – including a top 10).
2. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – Talladega and Bristol have always been Stenhouse’s best race tracks. In 10 Bristol races, he has 5 top 10s and 9 top 20s. His only finish outside of the top 20 was a 21st place finish.
3. Jamie McMurray – Based on track history, McMurray should not be a long shot. He has 14 top 15 finishes in his last 20 Bristol races. The only problem is that 2018 has been a disaster for Jamie Mac.
Kevin Harvick – No one has led more laps this season, and last week he extended his lead.
Kyle Busch – Wins are great, but fast laps and laps led are the biggest statistic in daily fantasy NASCAR. Busch has the second most this season.
Erik Jones – A lot of really good race cars wrecked last week, but Jones kept his car clean. He finished 4th and earned his 4th top 10 this season.
Kyle Busch (Fall 2017)
Jimmie Johnson (Spring 2017)
Kevin Harvick (Fall 2016)
Carl Edwards (Spring 2016)
Joey Logano (Fall 2015)
PICK TO WIN
Kyle Busch – Despite not winning at Bristol for almost a decade, Busch was routinely the fastest car on the track. He got the monkey off of his back last year. Busch is primed for another win streak at Bristol.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.