DraftKings Fantasy Golf Picks & Plays for Wells Fargo Championship

Welcome back for another week of PGA DFS at DraftKings, FanDuel, and FantasyDraft. We’re here to give you the full report on The Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. Fresh off hosting the PGA Championship last year and a sizable remodel, Quail Hollow will have some question marks this year as far as how difficult it will play with a non-Major setup. Let’s get started.

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The Course

Welcome to Quail Hollow, Rory’s old stomping grounds and a course that has everyone guessing this week. Since the renovation for the PGA Championship last year, no one has played this place competitively. Plus, there’s the renovation to consider.

Quail can play easy or tough depending on conditions and setup by the grounds crew. I doubt they try to dial it up too much this week.

Here are a couple of the things that should differ from last year’s PGA Championship. The greens should be a bit softer and run much slower. The greens will soften due to the new Bermuda grass maturing. The grounds crew will also likely elect for some favorable pin placements this week, especially on the long par-4s and the par-5s.

The rough should also be noticeably shorter than during the Major, helping the players get in scoring position more often. Even before the redesign, Quail Hollow had one of the worst percentages on tour for fairways hit. Expect plenty of approaches from the rough this week.

Taking a look at the ATK Card from the PGA Championship (the only current data to use), we can see this course is all about scoring on the par-5s and the short par 4. Otherwise, this course is just a bunch of bogey’s waiting to happen.

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For me this week, it is all about the par-5s and SG:BS (with a heavy bomber lean). Failing to birdie a par 5 this week can take you right out of contention. I think James Hahn was nine under on the par-5s the year he won here.

Since we have quite a few question marks this week in terms of setup, I am focusing on the few things that have almost always correlated to historical success at Quail Hollow. That means being long and efficient off the tee, strong proximity from 175-200, and Par 5 scoring.

Key Stats:

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (Favor OTT)

2. Par 5 Scoring

3. Long Par 4 Scoring

4. Prox 175-200

5. 3 Putt Avoid

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PGA DFS Players:

Top Tier: $11.8K – $9K

Rory McIlroy ($11.8K) wins the API, contends all the way to Sunday at the Masters, and is now coming to arguably his favorite course on tour, where he has had the most success of anyone in the field. He knows all the breaks and has the ability to dominate the par-5s, likely racking up DK points on his way to another top 10. Yes, he is expensive and popular, but Rory could be the guy you need to have to cash anything this week if he repeats his 2015 performance.

Justin Thomas ($11.3K) is coming back for the first time since his maiden major victory here. He’s set up perfectly to repeat that feat. Thomas bombs it, scores better than anyone in the field, and does it with exceptional long irons. Basically repeat what I said about Rory, but with a better putter.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9.4K) has improved his results at this track with every return, culminating in a 5th at the PGA and an 11th the previous time. With an elite tee-to-green game and a putter that comes and goes, Matsuyama could provide some positive variance with the flat stick this week. Among the guys in the 9K part of this range, Deki seems to fit best for DK scoring and ready to notch a win after his solid Masters.

Other to consider: Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Tommy Fleetwood

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Mid Tier: $8.9K – $7.5K

Louis Oosthuizen ($8.8K) is still looking for his first win stateside. He’s sneaking into form with some decent showings early in the year and popped up on the team event leaderboard last week. While he is GPP only and risky to say the least, Oosthuizen makes for a solid pivot in this range with his world-class ball striking to navigate around Quail. If it turns into a scoring fest, I’m not confident he can sustain back to back 65’s, but he always seems good for a scorching round at least one day per tourney and top 15 potential at extremely low ownership.

Tony Finau ($8.7K) is looking to break out on a track that favors his skills and negates his mediocre putter. He comes off some solid results recently, contending last week in the team event. Finau is going to get a lot of attention, and rightfully so, this week. Don’t overlook Finau just because he gets popular in GPPs. His game fits well here despite his past results. Finau is poised for a top 10 this week.

Bryson DeChambeau ($8K) is going to be extremely chalky this week. Expect to see him heavily tagged at Fansharesports.com, likely right behind Rory this week after the hype train gets going. He’s in excellent recent form and is a strong par 5 scorer. He also rates really well in long par 4 scoring. Bryson has it all, funny hat included. Measure your exposures in GPP as Bryson will likely get close to 20-25 percent ownership

Daniel Berger ($8K) makes for an interesting GPP play this week, especially with the course changes and how they suit his game. Berger struggles on par 5 scoring a bit more than I would like but makes up for it with exceptional par 4 scoring, especially on the long par-4s and that bears out in his results here. Berger will come in as one of the lowest owned in this range but with decent upside, especially if he finds a way to score on the par-5s this week. I like him as a pivot off the super chalk of DeChambeau.

Others to consider: Brooks Koepka, Alexander Noren, Keegan Bradley, Emiliano Grillo, James Hahn, Chesson Hadley

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Value Tier: $8.5K and Lower

Luke List ($7.4K) will be chalky once again despite his missed cut the previous time out and his two previous missed cuts at this course. I was hoping to get List at a bit of reduced ownership this week because he does set up really well for this course on paper. I can understand the hype for List given his recent good form, but $7.4K and 20 percent ownership is tough to stomach.

Beau Hossler ($7.4K) is a name to remember, and here’s hoping after this week, a name no one in the DFS community forgets. Of course, that could be because he misses the cut in spectacular fashion. But I am betting it’s because he posts a top 10 here this week. A bomber who gains all his strokes off the tee and can get super hot with his putter, Beau makes for a nice GPP play in this range.

Kevin Streelman ($7.2K) will likely be on the chalkier side of the players in this range based on his tags at Fanshare. But that is because he makes for a great play this week. He boasts solid course history and hot recent form, plus tons of value. Streelman comes in as a great bet to make the cut and has proven his ability to post upside results here.

Grayson Murray ($6.9K) is certainly a polarizing player from a fan perspective. But he’s talented regardless and has started to post some impressive (if erratic) results in strong fields. A Carolina guy who knows how to play the Carolina courses well, Murray fits well here. He is a bomber who is heating up with his putter. I look for Grayson to be aggressive this week on his way to a top 15.

Others to consider: Xander Schauffele, Francesco Molinari, Sean O’Hair, Adam Scott, Keith Mitchell, Trey Mullinax

That does it for the Wells Fargo Championship breakdown. Good luck this week, and I’ll see you next for The Players at TPC Sawgrass.

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