MLB DFS DraftKings.com & FanDuel.com Lineups & Picks for April 5, 2018
Baseball is back with a great slate of MLB DFS games scheduled for Thursday, 4/5/18. The main slate on DraftKings includes 3 games starting at 7:05 p.m. EST, while FanDuel’s main slate includes 4 games starting at 6:35 p.m. EST.
For today, we’re listing our top MLB DFS pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target in Cash and GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. The info below can also be used for crafting your daily fantasy baseball strategy at FantasyDraft.
Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Jose Altuve can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.
Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate.
4/5/18 MLB DFS TOURNAMENT PICKS
Knuckleball: $5 entry, $125k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Fastball: $33 entry, $55k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Squeeze: $4 entry, $100k guaranteed (FanDuel)
Grand Slam: $33 entry, $50k guaranteed (FanDuel)
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Baltimore Orioles (+250) at New York Yankees (Over/Under – 8.5 runs)
This is a game to target if playing the main slate on FanDuel. Orioles RHP Andrew Cashner ($5.9k) gave up 3 HRs in his season debut and faces a Yankees lineup that can absolutely mash.
Giancarlo Stanton ($4.5k), Aaron Judge ($4.0k) and Didi Gregorious ($4.0k) are the most appealing tournament plays in pinstripes.
Masahiro Tanaka ($9.3k) is also worth using a GPP play because the Orioles have been the worst offensive team in the American League so far this season with a collective .176 batting average and league-high 28.1 percent K-Rate.
Tanaka has good career splits against the O’s and has held most of their best batters in check, although Jonathan Schoop ($2.9k) has homered three times over 23 career at-bats against the Yankees righty.
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Cincinnati Reds (+145) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Over/Under – 8)
After a terrible 2017 campaign, Homer Bailey ($6.7k, $5.7k) rebounded to start 2018 by allowing one run on four hits over 6 IP against a deadly Nationals lineup. He’s still a very risky option and might be worth targeting with Pirates bats since he posted a 5.84 SIERA with a 12% BB-Rate last season.
Bailey allowed RHB to hit .328 with an 18.4% HR/FB ratio last year, so Starling Marte ($4.9k, $3.4k) stands out as a high-upside play. He’s 6-for-16 with 4 XBH and is 3-for-3 on SB in his career against Bailey.
Josh Harrison ($4.0k, $3.1k) is a boom-bust option given his ability to hit for power or potentially steal bases and LHB Josh Bell ($4.3k, $3.4k) might be able to go yard off Bailey.
The Pirates offer decent values in Francisco Cervelli ($3.1k, $2.5k) and David Freese ($2.9k, $2.5k), who also has positive splits (8-26, 2 HR) in his career against Bailey. Adam Frazier ($3.7k, $2.4k) is a good Cash play as well.
LHP Steven Brault ($5.4k, $5.5k) really struggled to miss bats last year with a 7.9 percent swinging strike rate and 5.22 SIERA for Pittsburgh.
While Brault has never allowed a homerun to a LHB in his career, Joey Votto ($5.1k, $3.7k) could buck that trend and his ability to work counts and get on base might prevent Brault from going even five innings.
Brault did give up a 34.1 percent hard contact rate to RHB and Eugenio Suarez ($4.0k, $3.2k) posted a 42.9 percent hard contact rate when facing LHP last year, giving him GPP appeal. Adam Duvall ($4.3k, $2.8k) posted a 22.2% HR/FB ratio against lefties last season and is another worthy tournament option.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (+120) at St. Louis Cardinals (Over/Under – 7.5)
Despite his rough season debut, Robbie Ray ($10.7k, $9.6k) has the most upside of the six pitchers scheduled to start tonight. He coughed up 6 ER on 7 hits in his season debut against a familiar foe in the Rockies, but still struck out eight. With a 14.2 percent swinging strike rate and 12.11 K/9 ratio last season, Ray was a staple GPP play and he posted much better numbers away from Chase Field.
The Cardinals have dangerous batters that could make life tough for Ray, however, including slugging shortstop Paul DeJong ($4.3k, $3.7k), who posted a .392 wOBA and a lofty 28.6% HR/FB ratio when facing LHB last season.
Jose Martinez ($3.6k, $3.1k) is another tournament option to consider against Ray, as it’s worth noting that strong winds are expected to be blowing out to LF at Busch Stadium this evening.
Tommy Pham ($3.9k, $3.5k) is a decent Cash play as is Yadier Molina ($3.7k, $3.3k) as a relatively low-upside option at catcher.
Cardinals RHP Michael Wacha ($7.7k, $7.7k) was far better at home last season, but was still inconsistent and allowed a 22.2 percent line drive rate at Busch Stadium. He was tagged for 2 HRs and 4 ER over 4.2 IP in his season debut and may get overlooked, but seems like a good per-dollar option on DK.
Paul Goldschmidt ($5.3k, $4.1k) has not had success in a small sample against Wacha and he doesn’t match up well against a sinker-heavy pitcher. A.J. Pollock ($5.4k, $3.6k) seems grossly over priced on DK in this matchup but is worth deploying on FD.
Wacha has been more vulnerable in RvR matchups throughout his career, so those players have some GPP appeal, but it may be wiser to target a value righty in Chris Owings ($3.4k, $2.6k) or Nick Ahmed ($3.7k, $3.2k) if he’s able to return from an illness.
If Ahmed is out, Daniel Descalso ($2.6k, $2.3k) could draw another start against his former team and he’d be a value to consider along with potential leadoff man Jarrod Dyson ($2.8k, $2.4k).
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Chicago Cubs (-120) at Milwaukee Brewers (Over/Under – 9)
Jon Lester ($10.6k, $8.9k) appears to have run out of gas at this stage in his career and he’s a very risky option to consider even on a short slate. The 34-year-old southpaw lasted just 3.1 innings against a Marlins team that is barely fielding an MLB caliber lineup and he’ll now face the boom-or-bust Brewers lineup.
Familiar foe Ryan Braun ($4.3k, $3.3k) presents a tough matchup for Lester given his history of success against the platoon. However, the more appealing play may be Lorenzo Cain ($4.5k, $3.9k) given his ability to hit for power and steal bases.
Lester notably can’t throw to first base due to some mental block and Cubs catcher Willson Contreras (if he starts) posted the sixth-worst caught stealing percentage (.274%) amongst qualified catchers last year.
In addition to Cain, Jonathan Villar ($3.3k, $5.4k) is a great tournament play after stealing 85 bases the past two seasons and Keon Broxton ($3.3k, $5.4k) is another burner with 44 steals over the last two seasons.
Hernan Perez ($2.9k, $2.0k) would also be worth a look if starting. He’s 2-for-2 in SB attempts against Lester and hit .316 with a 32.6 percent hard contact rate against LHP last season. Perez or Domingo Santana ($3.4k, $3.0k) should start in the OF with Christian Yelich (oblique) ruled out tonight.
Brewers LHP Brent Suter ($6.3k, $6.5k) was hit hard in his season debut (giving up a 26.7% line drive rate) and he draws a brutal matchup against the Cubs at a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Kris Bryant ($5.6k, $4.2k) could serve as the centerpiece of a Cubs stack considering he posted a .405 wOBA with a 35.6 percent hard contact rate against lefties last year. Anthony Rizzo ($5.3k, $4.0k) remains deadly in LvL matchups and is also worth paying up for as part of a stack.
This game has the highest Over/Under on tonight’s 3-game slate and multiple Cubs RHB could jump in on potential rallies, including Javier Baez ($3.8k, $3.0k), Ben Zobrist ($3.8k, $2.4k) and if he’s starting, Willson Contreras ($4.7k, $3.2k), who sports a 23.1% HR/FB ratio in his career against LHP.
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