Winning money in daily fantasy football is all about money management. You identify players you want and you budget your way around getting the right kind of guys you think are going to have big weeks. This money management column will attempt to give you a look at how to efficiently use your money to avoid the let down and hit the jackpot
Red Flag Players: Players I’m Worried About
QB: Drew Brees—9,100: The Lions D might actually be legit. They’ve played like the best defense in the NFL this season and get to return home. Brees has a 3 year stretch of 25%+ or less production on the road vs at home in New Orleans…Brees is always a threat to go off, but I think your money is better spent elsewhere this week.
RB: Demarco Murray-–9,400: This might come off as sacrilegious, as it seems the only fantasy player worth counting on is Murray. He has a favorable matchup vs the Giants at home and is on pace for an epic amount of carries. Trust me, I’m not predicting a bad game for Murray….but I think his ceiling might be limited this week. NYG have a strong D Line and the Cowboys have openly talked about getting Joseph Randle more carries to spell Murray (which is a great idea to ensure the longevity of his career). Additionally, I am thinking there is a big time blowout potential in this game for the Cowboys.
All that leads me to suspect this is more of a pedestrian game for Murray. Yes, a pedestrian game for Murray still might be 16/17 fantasy points, but at 9,400 you’re paying way too much here. Jamaal Charles is nearly 1,000 cheaper and has a pretty similar chance of having a really productive week for you.
WR: Demaryius Thomas—-9,100: San Francisco gets destroyed when teams go over the top and try to beat them downfield. While Thomas looks like a great down field threat, that is not how the Broncos consistently use him—they go over the middle a lot with Thomas and get him in space. The 49ers are very good when they have the ability to stay in front of their man, something’s got to give and I think Thomas has a more tepid week then his past two performances.
Green Light Players: Players I Love
QB: Aaron Rodgers—9,700: Andy Dalton with no AJ Green just torched the Carolina secondary for 323 yards and 2 TDs. I can’t wait to see what Rodgers, Nelson and Cobb do this week. He’s the best QB start in football and it’s not close. The beauty of this start is that the Panthers offense is also clicking, that matters because the need for Rodgers to keep airing it out will likely be there for all 4 quarters…..This has 40 point potential written all over it.
RB: Gio Bernard—-8,9000: The Bengals lean on Bernard so much both in the running game and the passing game it’s tough to see a situation where he doesn’t come away with 20 points. The Colts can be run on, as shown by Arian Fosters huge week last Thursday and they are also susceptible to RB receptions. As a bonus, Vonte Davis anchors an extremely solid secondary and the Colts’ coaching staff is very creative at creating QB pressure—-i.e. Andy Dalton will be check-down Charlie all day. Like I mentioned earlier, I think you’re looking at like a 18/20 point floor for the Nard Dog this week.
WR: Jordy Nelson—-8,9000: (See Rodgers, Aaron)
QB: Carson Palmer—7,300: While 7,300 isn’t exactly cheap, it is affordable for a QB like Palmer. He’s got a very juicy matchup vs the Oakland Raiders and is in an ideal system for his strengths. The Cardinals like to throw deep and there is nothing that Palmer does better then chuck it downfield. Injuries have slowed down what was once the best deep ball in the NFL, but he still has the velocity and downfield accuracy to get Floyd and Fitzgerald the rock for a huge game.
RB: Isaiah Crowell—5,300: If you are looking to save money on one of your two RB’s, I highly recommend looking into Crowell. Crowell is a really talented rookie that is only being held back by the veteran presence of Ben Tate. I fully expect Tate to have a huge week vs Jacksonville, but Crowell scored a TD last week and I think the Browns run away with this one. Crowell could pretty easily get you 12+ points, especially with the expected junk time work.
WR: Jarius Wright—4,800: The Vikings go to Wright a lot with Bridgewater at the helm. My theory is they finally have a QB that can complete a 10 yard crossing route and lead Wright to space where he can do his thing. Don’t expect a huge week from Wright, but if you want to go really big in a few areas and can only drop 5,000 or so on a WR. Wright should be able to adequately get you points, especially in a matchup vs the blitz-happy, poor pass defending Bills.
TE: Timothy Wright—5,300: Timothy Wright is a really interesting football player. I think it’s no surprise that the Pats’ use of him has coincided with their improved passing offense in general. Even though he only had 1 catch last week, it was still a touchdown and still a fantastic play. He’s got size and speed and the ability to lineup inside and outside….Plus the Jets are an extremely bad pass defense (especially vs Tight Ends). If you’re looking for a place to cut corners…Consider Wright.