NASCAR DFS Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Picks for O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Each week, we’ll have an early week cheat sheet for the DFS NASCAR contests at DraftKings. This week, we look at the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Kevin Harvick – This is the fastest car in fantasy NASCAR. Harvick won three in a row (Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Phoenix), and it could have been four, but his anger got the best of him and he put his car in the wall at Fontana. Last week’s race is meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Martinsville is an anachronism. Winning at a flat, half-mile track is about as telling as winning at a restrictor plate track. The NASCAR circuit is made up of one to two-mile ovals where the fastest engineered car usually wins. This year, Harvick is driving that car. If you’re still not convinced, he won at Texas last fall.
2. Martin Truex, Jr. – Harvick won at Texas last fall, but Truex has been the fastest at Texas over the last four races. This track was repaved and reconfigured between 2016 and 2017, but that didn’t seem to bother the #78 Furniture Row team. Treux has at least 26 hog points (combined total of fast lap and laps led points) in each of the last four Texas races. In the last intermediate track race this year at Fontana, Truex scored 65.75 fantasy NASCAR hog points.
3. Kyle Busch – Don’t worry about his races at Texas last year. He started in the back in the spring race and his car got hit on pit road. In the fall race, he had already qualified for the championship and was looking ahead to Homestead. He proceeded to wreck in the first turn of the race. This week his desire is on the opposite end of the spectrum after a five-race streak of runner-up/third place finishes. Throw out Daytona and Busch is averaging 76 fantasy points per race this season.
4. Kyle Larson – Texas was one of the playoff races where everything went wrong for Larson. His pit crew failed to secure a lug nut, so Larson had to pit an additional time. Larson pushed the car to the limit to make up for lost positions, and he hit the wall. He believed that he has the fastest car at Texas, and his 41.5 hog points confirms this belief. Larson has been a step behind Harvick, Busch, and Truex this year, but any week he could close that gap.
5. Jimmie Johnson – The seven-time Texas winner has to make the list. Johnson has 8 wins at Texas’ sister track in Charlotte. Last year, Texas reconfigured the race track. It’s not the spitting image of Charlotte anymore, but don’t tell that to Johnson. He earned his seventh Texas win at the new reconfiguration last spring. The Hendrick Chevys have struggled in the new Camaro body, but the week off likely closed the speed gap. Johnson won’t be out front all day, but he knows how to be out front on the lap that matters.
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LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Ryan Blaney – Is he a true fantasy NASCAR long shot? No, but he’s pretty close when you consider who he has to beat. Last spring at Texas, Blaney started on the front row and scored 25.5 fast lap points and 37 lap led points. He’s one good qualifying run away from being on everybody’s short list.
2. Erik Jones – No one believes that Jones is going to beat Harvick, et al., but everyone believes he’s a top 10 driver. That says a lot. At the intermediate tracks this season (throw in Phoenix, too. Dale Jr. says that it is an intermediate track), Jones has finished 11th or better in each race.
3. Alex Bowman – Every race this year, Bowman has improved. Hendrick struggled out of the gate with the new Chevy Camaro ZL1 body, but the west coast swing is over. The team had a week off to work on adjustments.
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RECENT SUCCESS
Kevin Harvick – After a stupid wreck at Fontana, Harvick bounced back with a top 5 at Martinsville. Harvick has three wins this year, get used to him being on this list for a while.
Kyle Busch – In the last four races, Busch has three second-place finishes and a third-place finish. Kissing all the sisters.
Clint Bowyer – He won for the first time in 2012. That qualifies as recent success. Last week’s win was a short track victory, but Bowyer has finished 11th or better in the 4 of the 5 non-plate races this season.
TRACK HISTORY
Kevin Harvick (Fall 2017)
Jimmie Johnson (Spring 2017)
Carl Edwards (Fall 2016)
Kyle Busch (Spring 2016)
Jimmie Johnson (Fall 2015)
PICK TO WIN
Kyle Busch – Simple put, he’s due. The car is fast enough and the driver is hungry enough.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
