Ownership Percentage
Ownership Percentage

Hey guys, back again this Friday with some more ownership rates for week 6. This week we used the Thursday Start $25 Bomb on Fan Duel having 9,195 entries. There is $7 Million worth of GPPs currently listed in the lobbies of Fan Duel and Draft Kings for Sunday start NFL. If you don’t want the edge these numbers offer than please stop reading here (Just kidding my Editors would not be happy if you did).  Let’s get to the Data:

 

High Owned Guys

 

QuarterBack

 

Eli Manning 16.7%

Peyton Manning 13.8%

Matt Ryan 10.8%

Russell Wilson 8.9%

Philip Rivers 8.2%

 

Running Back

 

Branden Oliver 36.8%

Andre Williams 23%

Matt Forte 17.6%

Andre Ellington 10.6%

LeVeon Bell 9.5%

Marshawn Lynch 8.1%

 

Wide Receiver

 

Golden Tate 34.6%

Julio Jones 16.4%

Mohamed Sanu 14.9%

Demaryius Thomas 14%

Emmanuel Sanders 12.1%

Alshon Jeffery 11.2%

Brian Quick 10.3%

 

Tight End

Martellus Bennett 17.8%

Antonio Gates 12.7%

Delanie Walker 10.9%

 

Defense

Broncos 23%

San Diego 10.3%

 

Analysis

 

It’s apparently roster your favorite Manning week on Fan Duel. I think Archie is even at 3%, but I could not find Cooper on the list. In all seriousness, I can see the case for both. If I need to lay out the case for Peyton, then you should really not be playing Daily Fantasy NFL games. If you really need the help: Best QB of our generation playing one of the worst pass defenses in the league without the service of his starting running back and on the brink of setting a TD pass record. I’m not even going to waste another sentence on it, just have some exposure to him. Eli also has a plum match up against a Philly pass defense that is top five for points given up to Fantasy QBs. The Giants offense has been better lately and with Odell Beckham added to the fold, Eli has a lot of weapons. Add to it that he was very cheap on Fan Duel and the pieces of the puzzle all fit together.

 

Matt Ryan gets a Chicago pass defense minus a couple pieces and giving up yards lately. This is one of the highest O/U games of the weekend and he should have a couple TDs playing at home and with a healthy stable of WRs. Russell Wilson makes sense too because the Dallas D is a little on the weak side. I would caution people that 100 yard rushing games are not something he does often, so do not chase those points. I think Russell is a nice play, but he was a better play last week if only for the lower ownership rate.  Rivers has been en fuego and gets a bad Oakland team. He’s on the road, they are a favorite, and there are blow out concerns. He has risk, but he is also one of the guys that can throw for 3 or 4 TDs every Sunday.

 

At RB it seems everyone had one of the 6200/6300 backs every pundit is touting. Andre Williams and Branden Oliver are a combined 59.8% owned which is only 59.6% above their ownership from last week. I realize you need cheap guys to fit in some studs and there is no better cheap guy to use then a RB who just stepped into a larger role, but at those rates what do you do? Before you say it’s obvious that you roster them, just remember that last week the winners had guys like Forte, Foster, Tate and all were 5% owned or less. If you need a comparison, try Rashad Jennings or Reggie Bush. High owned, slam dunk case for starting them and where did that get you? Not saying that they are going to suck, but let’s face it they are both back up RBs who were not exactly sitting behind NFL super stars on their respective teams. We have some stud backs in this league that get fed the ball 20-25 times a game and sometimes fail to score a TD or gain 100 yards. Do not think for one second that a back up RB coming off a big yardage game is going to be able to consistently escape that fate.  Maybe they come through and maybe they do not, but at those rates I am looking for swerves off of them for a GPP.

 

Andre Ellington is about where I expected his ownership to be and I can see the appeal. He has a decent match up and is expected to get 15-20 touches. He showed his explosiveness with the long TD he had last week and that is fresh in people’s minds. I’m up in the air because rumor is Carson may be back, and honestly, if you take away that big play for a TD his game was rather pedestrian. I like that he is less owned then the other two, but I like their potential more and both are lower priced. As for Bell and Lynch, they were probably the most expensive guys that many could afford after pairing them with one of the aforementioned two popular cheapies. We will get to why that matters when we discuss the low owned guys at RB.

 

The WR list is filled with stars, guys getting bumped up due to injured stars, and people catching passes from Peyton Manning (which makes them stars, because Peyton makes all his pass catchers stars). Golden Tate was in all my cash games last week and he did not disappoint. I will probably use him there again this week as Calvin is probably going to be held out and who else is Stafford going to throw to. If Reggie Bush was healthy I would say he gets 10 targets this week, but the high flying Lions offense people expected is missing a few key cogs. At 34.6% though you have to fade him in a GPP. If you can hit on a guy around his price that outscores him, then you knock out a third of the field with one swerve. We all know that Tate is the only option left on Detroit, so I have to think the Minnesota DC knows that too and is going to design the game plan to stop him. Mike Zimmers is one of the best defensive minded head coaches in the game and has his defense performing well. I like him as I stated, but there’s no way I play him at this level of ownership outside of cash games.

 

The other three guys bumped up because of injury are Alshon Jeffery, Mohammed Sanu, and Brian Quick. Brandon Marshall being banged up has led to Jeffery being the main target. Word is B Marsh is feeling better and he is still the Apple of Cutler’s eye. The game should be high scoring and there’s reasons not to like the other pass catching options, so Jeffery was the guy who made the most sense if you wanted exposure to the Bears not named Forte. Sanu gets the nod because AJ Green is out. He was the best of the cheap options in most people’s opinions as he catches a fair amount of TDs and is stepping into the #1 WR role. Can not really argue the reasoning, but the guy who leads both of this teams in targets tomorrow is probably not going to be playing WR or TE. Quick gets bumped up because Sam Bradford going down has allowed His bromance with Austin Davis to bloom. Davis looks deep to Quick a few times a game and he gets Red Zone targets to boot. My knock on Quick is the match up this week, along with people chasing his points. I think his ownership is more a function of his price and the comparables around him at that level.

 

TE here is a horror show to me. People are just playing the price game. Bennett is cheap for a guy with stud production to date, but he gets a Falcons D that is tough against the TE. The argument is that it’s because you can run at will and throw long to the WRs as often as you want against them, so why even bother with a TE, but the stats still say don’t do it. Delanie Walker and Antonio Gates are the other two options. I like both as the rule for Tight End is a TD minimum and the upside potential for two. Both these guys have put up 15-20 point games already this season, so I can not knock it. Neither is too highly owned that it would force me off of them like Bennett is.

 

I touted the under ownership of San Diego last week and they came through. I am a die hard Jets fan, but I’m also a realist and a DFS player, so the defense of the week again is the Jets opponent. In fact as much as it pains me to say it, that should be the way all season.

 

LOW OWNED GUYS  

 

 

QuarterBack

 

Jay Cutler 5.4%

Aaron Rodgers 3.3%

Ben Roethlisberger 1.7%

Andy Dalton 0.6%

 

Running Back

 

LeSean McCoy 7.1%

Eddie Lacy 5.6%

Ben Tate 4.7%

Gio Bernard 4.4%

Ronnie Hillman 3.9%

Doug Martin 0.4%

DeMarco Murray ????

 

Wide Receiver

 

Antonio Brown 9.3%

Victor Cruz 7.9%

Percy Harvin 7.5%

Brandon Marshall 7.3%

Rueben Randle 5.8%

Jeremy Maclin 5.8%

Odell Beckham 5.3%

Kendall Wright 4.8%

Kelvin Benjamin 3.9%

Justin Hunter 2.8%

Louis Murphy Jr. 0.9%

 

Tight End

 

Julius Thomas 8.9%

Owen Daniels 7.2%

Heath Miller 5.7%

GRONK 5.6%

Zac Ertz 3.2%

Jason Cameron 1.7%

 

Analysis

 

First thing that jumps out is Giovani Bernard at only 4.4%. I saw a tweet today that said he led the Bengals in targets last time AJ Green was out so that boosts him up right there.  On DraftKings that makes him an automatic cash game play for me with GPP upside. On Fan Duel he becomes a great swerve because he is priced right around guys like Forte, Lynch, and Lev Bell so he is being ignored a little. GPP winning upside at overlooked ownership rates is what we look for when searching through the numbers. He will definitely make a few of my Millions rosters now on FD.

 

Last week I talked about stud pass catching combos with GPP winning upside and I said that you could have Peyton, Julius, and Demaryus all for under 3.5% owned each. It worked out pretty well. This week I wanted to point out two other potential opportunities for you. The first is Aaron Rodgers at only 3.3%. I know Miami’s D is pretty solid, but this is Aaron Rodgers we are talking about here. The guy who took his foot off the gas and still ended with 200 yards and 3 TDs. If they kept the pressure rolling, he could have had 350 and 5 easily. Jordy Nelson is also somewhat highly owned, but you can have these two for about $400 more than Julio/Ryan and at half the ownership level. Throw in a single digit owned Randall Cobb and you might have a winning stack, although it may be pricey. The other option I like and is being overlooked is Big Ben/Antonio Brown. Big Ben is 1.7% and Antonio is back down to the single digits at 9.3%. We have already seen the upside this season and Stud combos being ignored peaks my interest. I would even throw in a Heth Miller at TE to complete a heavy stack of Pitt and hope they pull something like they did against Carolina. It’s definitely worth a shot given the low ownership. If it hits you could be sitting pretty again this week.

 

The next guy I really liked is Ronnie Hillman. He has been named the starter in Denver and had a decent fill in performance last week. The reason I like him is that he is cheaper ($5900) then Williams and Oliver yet has the same opportunity. In fact I would even argue his is better, because everyone expects the Broncos to be up a few scores and running the clock the whole second half. Value for Hilman is 80 total yards, 3 catches, and a TD which I think is very attainable. If he gets you a second TD, then you are going to be golden. I’m not saying any of this is a slam dunk, but the idea here is to use the guys with the highest probability of success that others are overlooking. To round out the RB discussion, Ben Tate is cheap and overlooked again. Maybe he misses those lofty yardage total he had last week but he could score a TD this week to make up for it. Steelers are stingy against the run, but none of these swerves are without a few warts or they would be on the high owned list. If you want an absolute flyer then Doug Martin might be that guy. He is 0.4% owned and I think that is going to be a low scoring slug fest. With V Jax probably out, I can see a run heavy game plan for the Bucs and this guy is only a year removed from being a top 5 pick in season long, so he has upside potential. As a side note the NFL’s leading rusher gets the vaunted Seattle defense this week and is getting no FanDuel love at his high price. I could not even find him on any rosters so I have no idea what his ownership was. My guess though is he will be another overlooked superstar who could win you a GPP as is his teammate Dez Bryant.

 

Moving on to WR, there’s a few interesting names on the list. For starters, if everyone loves Eli the question then becomes Cruz, Randle, or Beckham? Philly is one of the worst defenses in terms of fantasy points to QB and WR so all of them are in play. Beckham is the home run threat with the cheap price, but he only works for me if he was 1% owned. At 5% there’s less value in it from my point of view. I would prefer instead to take Cruz who is more expensive, but should get more looks and just as many shots down the field as his young teammate. The best option in my eyes though is Rueben Randle. At $5900 on FanDuel I love his potential to hit value. He has seen 10 targets the last few weeks each game and is becoming a Red Zone threat for Eli. His other WRs are small, quick, catch and run guys which works great between the twenties but not so much around the end zone. Randle has less explosive ability, but he’s pretty cheap and could easily pay it off with a TD. He has a high probability of getting a chance or two for that.

 

B Marsh and Harvin are also interesting to me at the same price point. Marshall is in the highest O/U game of the week and he is thee red zone target on Chicago. Others get some looks, but Marshall catching TDs is just what he does. Harvin on the other hand had 3 of them last week called back and gets a Dallas D that has secondary problems. I do not put stock in the “They are going to get him a TD to make up for it” narrative, but I just flat out think he is going to get one based on his talent.

 

Maclin is also in that high O/U Giants vs. Eagles match up and makes a nice play on the other side for stacking purposes with Eli and some of his WRs. The Titans pass duo is most likely not going to repeat the exploits from last weekend, but at those rates if they do it will buoy your roster nicely. If V. Jax is out than Louis Murphy Jr. goes from unemployed to default #1 WR in less weeks than it takes to set up this season of Sons of Anarchy. Last guy I want to mention is going to sting a little bit, but now is the time to roster Kelvin Benjamin. He burnt so many people last week that there is a lot of that “Never roster again” garbage going on. Watch the game rewind and you will see Cam missed him when he got turned around while having steps on his man in the end zone. Then later you will also see a pass interference on a fade that prevented him from getting a sure six. That’s two TDs that he could have had very easily. There was also a 20 yard pass play down the seam where the CB just got his hand in to jar the ball loose. He had a tough game, but it was not for lack of chances as he saw a normal amount of targets. Remember this is still a rookie wide receiver that is taking his bumps learning the riggers of the NFL game.

 

There’s a list of overlooked TEs above, but I’m only going to mention one. GRONK saw 11 targets last week and as always added a red zone TD. He is back and Bellichek/Brady are going to use him to avoid slipping out of contention.  There’s very few guys who have 2 TD potential which is a huge boost at TE in DF NFL. He is not overly expensive yet, but I think he will be next week after a huge game upcoming.

 

Remember the key to this daily fantasy sports game is putting the pieces of the puzzle together. I don’t think all the high owned guys are going to whiff anymore then I think all these low owned guys are going to shine. Whoever pairs them all together best is going to win the big prize. The idea when you swerve is to try and match or outscore the guy you are fading. If you can outpace him at a lower cost then you are going to be in position to move ahead of the pack. Good luck finding the right situations to use both.