I had a pretty rough week in daily leagues this past week. I vowed to never again play players in a Thursday Night game (which I will probably break this Thursday) and in general, I had the right idea with the players who I thought were going to have big weeks (Andre Ellington, Brian Quick), but never put it all together on one team.
Oh well, time to rebound.
A few thoughts on players to keep an eye out for this week.
Demarco Murray: the Cowboys running back is playing Seattle in Seattle. This is an interesting play and I don’t quite recommend it for the obvious reasons, but you can run on Seattle and Murray proved that he could still be incredibly valuable even if he is held out of the endzone. I generally prefer consolidating my big money players on WR because A) I think you can get good cheap value at RB more likely than WR (or, if nothing else, I think it’s easier to predict as a result of who’s getting carries vs what team i.e. volume specific plays) and B) I just trust the position more. A bad game from Antonio Brown still gets you 13 points….It’s always possible a team gets down early and abandons the run with a running back (know your player/team/situation). That being said, Murray’s ownership might be really low this week as a result of the matchup, and I still think he has a chance to produce. The Monday night game tonight should be monitored to see if Alf has any success running against the Seahawks Defense.
LeSean McCoy: I think McCoy is going to have a big second half of the season, but don’t think it happens this week and hope it doesn’t happen this week. The Giants have a tough run D, followed by a BYE, followed by @Arizona…That’s a rough stretch and I could see Fan Duel continuing to lower his salary as a result….I’m hoping so, the OLine is returning to health and could see a big second half of the season for Shady.
Vikings Skill Players: I certainly don’t think it’s time to panic if you are an owner of any Vikings skill players, or considering avoiding them. Christian Ponder is one of the least capable NFL Quarterbacks that will take a snap this season. He was behind on all his throws, even the ones that were completed and that allowed the Packers to stuff the run. If Bridgewater is healthy, I think you can buy with confidence in the Vikings skill game. Bridgewater is really good, their OLine is solid and the talent is there. The Lions come to town and have been surprisingly competent on D, but don’t let that scare you from buying some of the cheaper Vikings options. Jennings and Wright especially.
QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago—8,500: Generally, I prefer to roll with a more affordably priced QB as it’s a position where you can find some value and upside at easily. But Mike Glennon and Blake Bortles have tough matchups, while Austin Davis has seen his price rise to the point of not being overly valuable anymore and I think Quarterback is a position you can consolidate a lot of your cap for a guy like Cutler. Cutler is producing like a top 5 QB, yet is coming in 600-1,500 cheaper than some of his contemporaries, but for whatever reason (probably because it feels like he’s always one play away from a really crappy week) he’s been priced like he doesn’t belong with those guys. The Bears are in Atlanta, who have a fairly pedestrian pass defense and really need a win. I think a big game is coming for Cutler.
RB: Branden Oliver, San Diego—6,200: Don’t fight it. Obviously, don’t expect 30+ points next week, but Oliver looks good and he’s the only guy in San Diego. He’s cheap, he looks good and the Chargers are playing Oakland, who have looked horrendous on defense all season. Finding cheap production is always key and while Oliver isn’t as cheap as he was last week, he still is a cheap running back in an excellent offense and has an excellent situation this weekend. Continue to monitor both Ryan Mathews and Donald Brown but it is looking like all systems go for Branden Oliver to carry the workload this weekend.
RB: Lamar Miller, Miami—6,900: While the situation in Miami might be a bit murky, they have proven that they are committed to running the football with multiple running backs and appear to have a much improved offensive line. Miller has routinely made the most of moderate touches this season and has the eccentric big-play ability that you covet out of daily fantasy plays. Plus, they are at home verse a Green Bay run defense that has struggled against teams not quarterbacked by Christian Ponder. I think Miller is in line for a big game.
WR: Julio Jones, Atlanta—9,000: Atlanta returns home, where they are demonstratively better than on the road and play the Chicago Bears, who have looked dreadful against the pass. It seems like the makings of a huge week for Jones. If you are going to go big on one position player, I strongly recommend Jones.
WR: Keenan Allen, San Diego—6,700: I know, I know 3 Chargers? It seems heavy, but the San Diego Chargers have an awesome offense and are playing the Raiders. I think the biggest concern with Allen is what has happened a lot to Allen so far this season, the Chargers get up by so much that they either take Allen out or just run the clock out. Another player I considered is Michael Floyd, the Cards play the Redskins but until you know if Carson Palmer (or hell, even Drew Stanton) is playing—I don’t think you can afford to play Floyd. I’m a believer in Keenen Allen and think he’s the best position player on a great offense.
WR: Brian Quick, St. Louis—6,300: Same with Oliver, don’t fight it. I mentioned Quick last week as a great DFS play and I’m sticking with it. He’s talented. He was the 33rd pick in the 2012 draft and while that doesn’t always mean something, it goes to show he is a wide receiver with real talent who is looking to be in the middle of a breakout season. They target him all the time in St. Louis and Austin Davis looks like he is a competent quarterback. Keep running him out there until Fan Duel recognizes his talent is real and adjusts his price accordingly.
TE: Delanie Walker, Tennessee—6,000: Walker gets a lot of goal line work with both Whitehurst and Locker. Additionally, the Titans are facing off against the Jags who have been really terrible this season defensively. Thomas and Gronk are always good for consolidating money, but they play the Jets and Bills respectively—both teams have solid line backing cores and Manning and Brady might prefer to exploit the relatively weak secondaries of both teams as opposed to passing to the Tight End.
K: Justin Tucker, Baltimore—5,300: I like getting kickers on good teams as kickers are a little tough to predict. Baltimore is good and has been able to move the ball enough, but is going on the road against a Bucs team that has looked a lot better defensively as of late. I think this game is a good set up for a kicker=The Ravens should be able to move the ball, but maybe get stuck on third downs often which will allow for Tucker field goals.
DST: Denver vs NY Jets—5,000: The Jets are becoming one of those teams you just want to stream defenseS against. More so add to the fact that what they are good at is running the ball and will likely be behind by a lot in this game and be unable to run as much. I think the Broncos DST will have the Jets right where they want them all day.