What to Expect?
At last check the tournament is on pace to fill but I still am not fully convinced that it will. It would be an awesome sign for the industry if it did but I expect it to finish at right around 85% capacity which would still offer some overlay. It seems that DraftKings has promoted this tournament quite well and are getting lots of new action to play this weekend for $27. It may take a frantric rush from regulars shoving in last minute entries in order to fill but I am not sure savvy players will see any sort of value in pushing it to full capacity. This is my reasoning for thinking it will get to about 85% capacity and do not think we will see the 92,400 max entries.
Payout and Prize Structure
This tournament was setup to be a headline grabbing attention getter. Hence the 1 million dollar first place prize, the issue is that this creates a very uneven prize pool payout structure with the top being so heavily weighted. The first place prize is 45.5% of the overall prize pool and 2nd place is only 4.5%. This is incredibly skewed as 3rd place is only 2.3% of the actual prize pool. On a flatter payout structure you would want to see a much lower percentage of the player prize pool paid out to 1st and much higher for 2nd and 3rd on down. For example Fanduel has their $25 $1,500,000 guaranteed prize pool tournament running as well this weekend. 1st place receives $150,000 which is only 10% of the prize pool. 2nd receives 5% and 3rd receives 2.6%. It is not so much the percentage of the prize pool but the skewed difference between 1st and 2nd and 3rd in DraftKings tournament that needs to be accounted for. Does this mean it is 1st place or bust? Obviously all of us would be happy with the 2nd place prize of $100,000 but with such a difference in payouts you have to believe most people will be going for it all or nothing it at all. Is the correct strategy to swing for the fences, maybe but maybe not?
The Strategy
With an understanding of how heavily shaded the top prize pool is it is almost certain that most will go into battle with the intent of winning the million dollar prize pool. This thinking will lead to some very interesting and diverse lineups that are constructed for various “contrarian” reasons. The issue is that most of these lineups will fail probably miserably and create a number of entries that have no chance of getting to the 15,500 place that pays out $40. If we expect this tournament to get to 85% capacity that gives us 78,540 lineups entered into the tournament. This means that right around 20% of the entries will cash. If we go in with the assumption that 40% of lineups will contain some sort of contrarian plays that have a real chance of hitting only on the most perfect of days we can see that there is an interesting middle ground of lineups that with a high enough floor could limit our upside but also offer us an opportunity to have a safe but profitable weekend. I will give a made up example to hopefully shed some light on a different strategy that some might find as a worthwhile approach to the Sunday Millionaire this weekend. Say that you are a mid-stakes player that generally doesn’t play any tournaments above the $25-$27 dollar range. You generally wager between $300 and $600 on any one week of the NFL season and due to the promotions that DraftKings has done for this tournament you have two free $27 entries into the millionaire maker. Your bankroll allows you to get in 4 more entries bringing your total to 6 entries. You feel pretty confident knowing you have some entries to play around with but are concerned with the Pros and other syndicates who could have upwards of 100+ entries into this one tournament. What is your best course to a profitable and successful weekend? Is it constructing those 6 lineups to give you a very small chance at 1 million dollars? Or is it constructing those lineups to cash in what could very likely be one of the easiest tournaments to finish in the money in this NFL Season? I cannot answer that question for you as I do not know your desires or what you hope or goal in playing daily fantasy sports is. For some though it may be a better proposition to construct lineups to finish in the money and provide another profitable weekend in which to grow their bankroll instead of taking a lottery ticket chance at one million dollars when the odds are severely stacked against you. All I am trying to do is offer a different way of attacking the Sunday millionaire maker this weekend. If your one goal is being profitable and to continue to grow your bankroll you may be better off taking a 30% chance of cashing for $500 in the tournament then a .0001% chance of cashing the $1,000,000. But that all comes down to what type of player you are and what you are looking to get out of daily fantasy sports. I hope that you weigh your own goals to align your teams with the proper decision that you have made that is best for you and your bankroll. The glitz and glamour of trying to win 1 Million Dollars has cost a lot of players some or all of their bankroll on numerous occasions. Sometimes it is best to not succumb to the forces telling you to buy that lottery ticket in hopes of cashing the 1 million first place prize. That may be the best contrarian play of all this weekend.
