DraftKings.com NFL DFS Divisional Round Picks and Plays for Cash Game and GPP Lineups
The Divisional Round of the 2018 NFL Playoffs is here, and everyone is looking to play for the big daily fantasy football money at DraftKings. Throughout the playoffs, we’ll bring you our top NFL DFS picks at each position, separating them into Cash and GPP plays.
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Best Wild Card Round NFL DFS Quarterback Plays
Tom Brady vs. TEN ($7.0K DraftKings) – Cash/GPP
Tom Brady is the only quarterback you can truly feel good about this week. No, the Titans aren’t expected to offer much of a challenge, but I think you may wind up needing the raw points from Brady (especially because I don’t think you go Gronk this week, so you have savings there). Plus, the all-time great has a narrative to work with this Divisional Round. Rumors are circulating about trouble in NFL paradise among Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick, and Brady. Then, there’s the fact that the Titans rank 28th in passing DVOA. Fire away on Brady at home in another playoff game he’ll almost certainly win.
Marcus Mariota @ NE ($5.8K DraftKings) – GPP
Marcus Mariota’s last week was an outlier at best. For starters, he threw a touchdown to himself. He threw the football. And he caught the football. For a touchdown on the same play. Finishing the game with 27.4 DK points, Mariota had himself a big day and brought big days to fantasy owners. They’ll be even more of those this week (the owners, not the big day for Mariota), and the Patriots do rank 21st in passing DVOA. The Titans are expected to lose by double digits, meaning there should be plenty of desperation work for the Tennessee quarterback.
Drew Brees @ MIN ($6.3K DraftKings) – GPP
This is a tough spot for Drew Brees, but, frankly, this may be his best shot at winning another Super Bowl. That’s a big assumption to make, but Brees, a true veteran and gamer, will bring his best. The Vikings, while a very good defense, did have the good fortune of playing in the NFC North this season. But the real reason this is a great spot for you to consider Brees is that so many will overrate Minnesota’s defense and underrate Brees. While he had a mediocre one-touchdown, 291-yard performance against Minnesota back in September, the stakes are much higher this time around, and perhaps highest for Brees as he polishes his legacy.
Nick Foles vs. ATL ($5.2K DraftKings) – GPP
Nick Foles isn’t an ideal play here. Then again, we don’t have a lot of options at QB this week. The Atlanta Falcons rank 19th in passing DVOA, and the masses will flock anywhere but Foles after his Week 17 dud against the Cowboys (though he didn’t play much). At $5.2K, it isn’t totally insane to think Foles, a capable QB at times in his career, can get you 3x or more back on that salary. After all, last month he threw for four touchdowns against the New York Giants. Stick to GPPs, but Foles is worth a look.
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Best Wild Card Round NFL DFS Running Back Plays
James White vs. TEN ($4.3K DraftKings) – GPP
Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis stand in the way of James White’s production. But against a Titans team projected to lose by 13 points, White should be able to steal extra snaps. While the Titans rank seventh in rushing DVOA, which doesn’t bode well for Burkhead and Lewis, they also rank dead last against pass catching RBs. Burkhead and Lewis can catch passes, specifically the former, but White is definitely a specialist in that mode. His 14 catches in the Super Bowl last year was a mark never before achieved at that stage. He attracted 12 targets in a single game earlier this season, albeit without Burkhead and Lewis healthy. Ultimately, the Titans’ defense is respectable and over-achieving, so a bunch of check-downs to White to keep the clock moving would make a lot of sense in this scenario.
Le’Veon Bell vs. JAX ($9.6K DraftKings) – Cash/GPP
This week, Le’Veon Bell gets a Jags defense that ranks 29th in rushing DVOA. While Antonio Brown missed some time at the end of the season, he does appear to be on track to play this weekend. That may seem like a reason not to play Bell, but Brown will keep that secondary honest and prevent Jacksonville from putting extra men in the box. Earlier this season, Bell put up 19.3 DK points against the Jaguars, which isn’t awe-inspiring. But his usage is insane, and the Steelers’ path to victory is much simpler if they lean into the run as opposed to testing that vaunted Jags secondary.
Derrick Henry @ NE ($7.3K DraftKings) – Cash/GPP
Announced as the starter in the Divisional Round (with or without DeMarco Murray healthy), Derrick Henry is primed to lead the Titans offense again this week. He’s averaged more than 150 yards from scrimmage over the last two weeks, and he has a rushing and receiving touchdown in that span as well. The Pats rank dead last in rushing DVOA and 24th in RB-PA DVOA (more or less, how running backs catching passes performs against that defense on average), meaning Henry can deliver on the ground and through the air. There is blowout risk, however, which makes him more appealing in GPP.
Tevin Coleman @ PHI ($4.4K DraftKings) – Cash/GPP
With Devonta Freeman questionable (but likely on track) to play this weekend, Tevin Coleman does hold something of an upside cap. However, Freeman didn’t look great last week with 18 carries for just 66 yards (though he added a touchdown). Coleman, meanwhile, looked much better — 14 carries for 40 yards and three receptions for 28 yards. Is that really better, you ask? Sure, Coleman was just $4.1K last week. He’s just $4.4K this week. I’ll take carries in the mid-teens plus a handful of targets for $4.4K on just about any short slate. This slate is not an exception.
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Best Wild Card Round NFL DFS Wide Receiver Plays
Corey Davis @ NE ($3.4K DraftKings) – GPP
The Titans have their hands full this weekend as 13-point underdogs. Corey Davis stands to benefit. The rookie has underachieved this season as a top-five pick, but he did see seven targets last week, converting four of those for 35 yards. At $3.4K against a Pats defense ranking 26th in WR1 DVOA — and in a game in which Tennessee will have to pass a ton — Davis is primed for another high-target game. Plus, he has the athletic upside to deliver on his low price tag.
Antonio Brown vs. JAX ($8.1K DraftKings) – GPP/Cash
I don’t care who he is playing, at $8.1K, I’ll always take a hard look at Antonio Brown. The league’s top wideout is facing the league’s top secondary this weekend, a secondary that allowed him to go for 28.7 DK points earlier this season. If you think any defense can wholly shut down Brown, this Jags team would seem the one. But they failed the first time. Brown’s versatility likely will be too much for them to avoid a similar fate.
Nelson Agholor vs. ATL ($4.8K DraftKings) – GPP
Nelson Agholor is not a guy you’re playing with a ton of confidence, but with the wideout position extremely shallow this week, he’s in play. In the past two weeks, WR1 Alshon Jeffery saw just four targets. Agholor saw 10, and the Falcons rank 26th in WR2 DVOA, which is slightly worse than their 24th rank against WR1. He’s a dart, but you’re going to have to throw some this week. Algholor appears to be in a slightly better spot than Jeffery, considering the salary disparity.
Dede Westbrook @ PIT ($4.4K DraftKings) – GPP
With an average of eight targets over the past three weeks, Dede Westbrook seems embedded in this Jacksonville offense. They’ll need him this week, as the Steelers’ offense offers two of the best weapons in the league. With such offensive firepower to deal with, the Jags will need to muster a response of their own. Westbrook’s solid target floor and extremely affordable price make him another dart if you need salary relief.
Secondary options: Stefon Diggs, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks
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Best Wild Card Round NFL DFS Tight End Plays
Zach Ertz vs. ATL ($5.8K DraftKings) – GPP/Cash
Just two games removed from a 14-target, nine-reception outing, Zach Ertz is primed to deliver a similar workload this week against the Falcons. Foles will need an anchor in this passing offense. Ertz is his most reliable option. Why is he in a better spot than Rob Gronkowski? Given the blowout potential against Tennessee, Gronkowski will likely be limited to a blocking role. Ertz will have a broader role because, well, the Eagles can’t afford not to leverage him at full capacity. Finally, the Falcons rank 22nd in TE DVOA.
Kyle Rudolph vs. NO ($4.7K DraftKings) – GPP
There isn’t much to go off here, but I am off Gronk this week given the matchup issues. Kyle Rudolph is an interesting, upper-mid range play at the position because he played this Saints team earlier this season and found his way into the end zone in that matchup. Greg Olsen, for one, caught eight passes for 107 yards last week against this Saints team. That seems ambitious, considering he also scored a touchdown, but not totally out of reach for Rudolph.
Best Wild Card Round NFL DFS Defense Plays
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST vs. JAX ($3.8K DraftKings) – Cash/GPP
Against a Blake Bortles-led offense, the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored to win by more than a touchdown. The Jags also have an implied total of 16.75, the lowest on the slate. That all adds up to a good day for the Steelers D/ST, especially in a stack with Le’Veon Bell.
New England Patriots D/ST vs. TEN ($3.2K DraftKings) – Cash/GPP
The Titans deserve an immense amount of credit for their comeback win against the Chiefs last week. But it’s going to be hard to repeat that inspired performance on the road against New England. Honestly, this is somewhat of a gut call, and the Pats’ defense has its fair share of holes, but the Titans are +13 underdogs. I just don’t think Mariota can avoid turnovers if his passing volume skyrockets. This also just feels like a good defensive touchdown spot for New England in a game I expect to be over very early.
