Padres Vs Braves: MLB Betting Lines, Stats And Predictions – September 26, 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 26, 2021

The Atlanta Braves (82-72) will try to sweep a three-game series versus the San Diego Padres (78-77), at 4:10 PM ET on Sunday. Joe Musgrove pitches for San Diego (-130 to win) while Atlanta (+110) will answer with Jesse Chavez.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of September 26, 2021, 4:00 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to place a bet at DraftKings.

Padres vs Braves Betting Lines

Padres Betting Insights

  • The Padres have entered the game as favorites 118 times this season and won 68, or 57.6%, of those games.
  • San Diego is 59-45 this season when entering a game favored by -130 or more on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Padres, based on the moneyline, is 54.3%.
  • In their last 10 games with a total, the Padres and their opponents are 8-2 when it comes to hitting the over.

Padres Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 3-7
Runs Per Game 5.0
HR 13
ERA 5.90
K/9 9.2

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Braves Betting Insights

  • The Braves have been chosen as underdogs in 48 games this year and have walked away with the win 22 times (45.8%) in those games.
  • This year, Atlanta has won 13 of 32 games when listed as at least +110 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Braves have a 45.7% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • When it comes to the total, the Braves and their foes are 6-4 in their previous 10 contests.

Braves Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 5.7
HR 15
ERA 3.45
K/9 8.0

Braves Probable Pitcher – Jesse Chávez

  • The Braves are sending Chavez (3-2) to the mound for his third start of the season.
  • His most recent time out came out of the bullpen on Saturday when the righty threw two scoreless innings against the Padres without allowing a hit.
  • The Braves were the underdog on the moneyline for one Chávez start this season — they lost.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of September 26, 2021 at 4:03 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Padres Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 78-77
Home 45-35
Road 33-42
vs LHP (Starters) 23-20
vs RHP (Starters) 50-57
Day Games 6-6
Night Games 72-71

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Padres Probable Pitcher – Joe Musgrove

  • The Padres’ Musgrove (11-9) will make his 30th start of the season.
  • The right-hander gave up five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings pitched on Wednesday in his last outing, a matchup with the Giants.
  • Among qualified pitchers this campaign, the 28-year-old’s 3.15 ERA ranks 14th, his 1.050 WHIP ranks 10th, his 190 strikeouts rank 17th, his 10.00 K/9 ranks 15th, and his 2.50 BB/9 ranks 14th.
  • Musgrove has 25 starts of five or more innings this season in 29 chances. He averages 5.2 innings per outing.
  • His team is 14-9 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of September 26, 2021 at 4:03 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Braves Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 82-72
Home 37-37
Road 45-35
vs LHP (Starters) 23-18
vs RHP (Starters) 57-52
Day Games 14-13
Night Games 68-59

Padres Hitting Stats

  • The Padres rank 22nd in MLB play with 175 home runs. They average 1.1 per game.
  • The Padres have put up two or more long balls in 47 games this season, and are 32-15 in those contests.
  • San Diego has hit 13 home runs over the past 10 games.
  • Manny Machado leads San Diego in runs batted in with 100 while batting .279.
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. is slugging .618 this season, with a team-best 41 homers while driving in 95 runs.

Braves Hitting Stats

  • The Braves’ 231 home runs rank third in Major League Baseball.
  • They’ve hit 122 homers, an average of 1.5 per game, in 80 road contests this season.
  • Over the last 10 games, Atlanta has hit 15 home runs.
  • Austin Riley leads the Braves with 32 home runs and has accumulated a team-high batting average of .304.
  • Freddie Freeman is batting .299 with 25 doubles, two triples, 31 home runs and 67 walks.

Game Prediction

Moneyline Pick:
Padres (-130)

Over/Under Pick: Over (8)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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