The Denver Nuggets are favored by 4.5 points heading into a decisive Game 7 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena on Sunday, tipping off at 8:00 PM ET on TNT. The series is deadlocked 3-3. The point total in the matchup is 199.
Our computer predictions for Sunday’s game will help you place an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Timberwolves (+4.5) to Cover
- The model favors the Nuggets by 0.9 points, a much smaller margin than the 4.5-point spread set by DraftKings. Take the Timberwolves to cover.
- Minnesota is 40-40-2 against the spread this season.
- The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 4-4 when playing as at least 4.5-point underdogs this year.
- Denver is 38-42-2 against the spread this season.
- The Nuggets have covered the spread 25 times this season (25-28-2 ATS) when playing as at least 4.5-point favorites.
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Total: Over 199
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (21.5 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Denver and its opponent have broken the 199-point mark 79 times this year.
- So far this season, 72 Minnesota’s games have featured more than 199 points scored.
- The Nuggets and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 35 out of 82 times this season.
- So far this year, 41 out of the Timberwolves’ 82 games with an over/under have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-198)
- Prediction: Nuggets 111, Timberwolves 110
- Denver has won 53, or 73.6%, of the 72 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Minnesota has been victorious in nine, or 45%, of the 20 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
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Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop: Under 13.5
- Michael Porter Jr. puts up 16.7 points, 7.0 boards and 1.5 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 0.5 steals and 0.7 blocks.
- Sunday’s points prop for Porter is 13.5. That’s 3.2 less than his season average.
- This season, Porter has scored beyond the points prop number in 39 of 77 games with a set total.
- On offense, the Timberwolves are the 18th-ranked team in the NBA (113.0 points per game). Defensively, they are best (106.5 points allowed per game).
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Rudy Gobert Points Prop: Under 10.5
- Rudy Gobert is averaging 14.0 points, 12.9 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. He’s making 66.1% of his shots from the field (second in league).
- Sunday’s over/under for Gobert is 10.5 points. That is 3.5 fewer than his season average of 14.0.
- He has gone up against a points prop bet in 81 games this season, and he’s gone over 40 times.
- The Nuggets are 14th in the NBA with 114.9 points per game this season. At the other end, they rank sixth with 109.6 points allowed per contest.
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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