Celtics vs. Heat Predictions & Best Bets: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under and Props | Game 4

Written By PlayPicks Staff on April 28, 2024

The Boston Celtics bring a 2-1 series lead into Game 4 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The Celtics enter the matchup as favorites by 10.5 points for the game, which airs on TNT at 7:30 PM ET. The matchup has an over/under set at 204 points.

Our computer predictions for Monday’s game will help you make an informed wager by picking the best bets available.

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Spread: Heat (+10.5) to Cover

  • The spread for this game suggested by the model (8.1 points) is a little tighter than the 10.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Celtics, though the data still has them as the favorite.
  • Miami’s ATS record is 40-39-3 this season.
  • So far this season, Boston has put together a 42-36-4 record against the spread.
  • When playing as at least 10.5-point favorites this season, the Celtics have an ATS record of 17-13.

Think the Heat will cover? Sign up and bet with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Total: Over 204

  • In this matchup, the model projects a total (223.3 points) much higher than the DraftKings over/under (204 points). Bet on the over.
  • Boston’s games have finished with more than 204 points 76 times so far this season.
  • So far this season, 65 Miami’s games have featured more than 204 points scored.
  • So far this season, 43 out of the Celtics’ 82 games have hit the over.
  • The Heat and their opponents have combined to hit the over 35 out of 82 times this season.

Will this matchup go over the total? Check out DraftKings Sportsbook for the latest odds and to get the best signup offer using our link!

Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-520)

  • Prediction: Celtics 116, Heat 108
  • Boston has entered the game as favorites 79 times this season and won 63, or 79.7%, of those games.
  • Miami has won in 11, or 31.4%, of the 35 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.

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Jayson Tatum Points Prop: Under 25.5

  • Jayson Tatum posts 26.9 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 1.0 steal and 0.6 blocks.
  • Monday’s over/under for Tatum is 25.5 points. That’s 1.4 fewer than his season average of 26.9.
  • Tatum is 33-for-77 at scoring more than his points prop total this season.
  • In 2023-24, the Heat are fifth-worst in the NBA on offense (110.1 points scored per game) but third-best defensively (108.4 points conceded).

Explore all available player props for Jayson Tatum and other Celtics players in this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.

All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.

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