The Boston Celtics bring a 2-1 series lead into Game 4 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The Celtics enter the matchup as favorites by 10.5 points for the game, which airs on TNT at 7:30 PM ET. The matchup has an over/under set at 204 points.
Our computer predictions for Monday’s game will help you make an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Heat (+10.5) to Cover
- The spread for this game suggested by the model (8.1 points) is a little tighter than the 10.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Celtics, though the data still has them as the favorite.
- Miami’s ATS record is 40-39-3 this season.
- So far this season, Boston has put together a 42-36-4 record against the spread.
- When playing as at least 10.5-point favorites this season, the Celtics have an ATS record of 17-13.
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Total: Over 204
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (223.3 points) much higher than the DraftKings over/under (204 points). Bet on the over.
- Boston’s games have finished with more than 204 points 76 times so far this season.
- So far this season, 65 Miami’s games have featured more than 204 points scored.
- So far this season, 43 out of the Celtics’ 82 games have hit the over.
- The Heat and their opponents have combined to hit the over 35 out of 82 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-520)
- Prediction: Celtics 116, Heat 108
- Boston has entered the game as favorites 79 times this season and won 63, or 79.7%, of those games.
- Miami has won in 11, or 31.4%, of the 35 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Jayson Tatum Points Prop: Under 25.5
- Jayson Tatum posts 26.9 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 1.0 steal and 0.6 blocks.
- Monday’s over/under for Tatum is 25.5 points. That’s 1.4 fewer than his season average of 26.9.
- Tatum is 33-for-77 at scoring more than his points prop total this season.
- In 2023-24, the Heat are fifth-worst in the NBA on offense (110.1 points scored per game) but third-best defensively (108.4 points conceded).
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All stats in this article refer to the 2023-24 regular season.
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