Winning at Daily Fantasy is all about finding those cracks in the system where Fan Duel or Draft Kings have been slow to adjust to change. If you played Matt Asiata last week, you got a 30 point game for 6,300 on Fan Duel. The crazy thing about the Asiata play was how obvious it was that he was going to have a good game. The Vikings were starting a rookie quarterback, they want to run the ball in general, they have an offensive line that is very solid in the run game anchored by an incredible center in John Sullivan, they were playing the Falcons who are terrible verse the run and they were playing in Minnesota, which the Vikings are an excellent home team and the Falcons are a terrible road team. The way I saw it, Asiata had almost a 10 point floor, if you only have to drop 6,300 on a guy who has a 10 point floor, you are setting yourself up for a big week.
Well, Fan Duel has recalibrated and now Asiata is 800 more at 7,100—still, that’s a pretty good value given Asiata’s volume in the Minnesota Vikings offense (and the fact that he is actually a reasonably reliable presence in the passing game). That is a consistent theme this week, Fan Duel was slow to adjust on some up-and-coming players and there was value to take advantage of in there. Now we’ve got to recalibrate ourselves and find the new value plays for week 5.
All of these picks are based off of Fan Duel’s 60k Salary Cap Ranks:
QB: Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota—6,900: Disclaimer: It sounds like Bridgewater will most likely sit tonight. Please get him out of your Thursday night lineups. Bridgewater looked really composed and confident on Sunday, sure it helps when your first start is at home verse the tepid Atlanta Falcons secondary, but regardless he looked really good and he didn’t even throw a touchdown. The Vikings have to go on the road for his second start and face the Green Bay Packer team that finally looked like the offense many of us hoped. The Vikings are going to need to score to keep up, and hopefully they finally unleash the potentially devastating downfield passing attack of Patterson and Bridgewater on the Packers. I think Bridgewater could be in line for a big day if that happens. If you are going to use Teddy in some Thursday Night action please continue to monitor his ankle injury. If he is not 100% it will affect his running ability and potentially limits his fantasy appeal on a short week.
RB Giovani Bernard, Cinncinatti—8,800: The Nard Dog has had an epic season up to this point and looks to continue it this week when the Bengals take on the Patriots. The Patriots pass defense has looked stout, but they’ve been letting teams run at-will on them. Watch if Kansas City is able to take advantage of this run defense on Monday Night if so it boosts Gio up even more with the Pats on a short week. I like to position my Fan Duel teams to have a few studs that have prime matchups and Bernard is that guy this week.
RB Andre Ellington, Arizona—6,800: Ellington has been consistent but actually fairly boring this season, which is quite different than what most people projected him to be. That being said, he’s seeing a bunch of touches and just hasn’t had that big breakaway play yet and let loose. Therefore his price tag still comes relatively cost-effective. The Cards play the Broncos and may find themselves in a shootout, and Ellington lives for the games that get the tempo turned up to eleven.
WR: Jordy Nelson—8,500: Nelson is a fantasy god and there is no denying that. I like to go big on a few key players and Nelson is one of those guys. He is significantly less expensive than his WR peers and that is probably because of the existence of Randall Cobb (another excellent fantasy option), but both wideouts have proven they can be, not only fantasy relevant, but fantasy beasts in the same game. The Packers have the improved but still not great Vikings coming to town…I’m expecting a shootout. When there is a shootout involving the Packers, I want Jordy Nelson.
WR: Keenan Allen, San Diego—7,000: A slow start to the season has depreciated his value on Fan Duel. However, Allen came alive last week vs the feeble Jaguars pass defense to the tune of 10 catches for 135 yards. He’s still on the hunt for a touchdown, which is a good thing for you if you are considering buying him this week.
The NY Jets and their pedestrian secondary come cross country to San Diego next Sunday. This is important for two reasons. 1) The Jets are impossible to run against and easy to pass on, meaning the Phillip Rivers show will be in full effect and 2) This might be the last weekend to have Keenan Allen at the moderate budget.
WR: Brian Quick, Stl—6,000: Quick has been over 10 fantasy points in every game this season, despite general inefficiency from his QB and offense. He is a target machine and isn’t QB dependent. He fits the “Asiata-zone” of being a cheap guy who actually has a really high floor. Quick was the 33rd pick of the 2013 NFL Draft, so he’s clearly a talented guy and not just someone thriving in a system (i.e. his production could be legit). Additionally, the Rams play the Eagles who have been fairly generous in their pass defense this season.
TE: Larry Donnell, New York Giants—6,200: I’m not assuming 26 points every week, but Larry Donnell is legit. He’s a big, physical target but he moves incredibly well. He plays with a very natural and fluid sense of where he is on the field, similar to how the basketball players like Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas and Antonio Gates have. I want to use Julius Thomas this week because the matchup is way too good with Arizona, but I think Donnell has as much upside as Thomas with probably a little lower floor, but not much….Yet he comes at near 2,000 cheaper. Cost effective production is the name of the game.
K: Dan Carpenter, Buffalo—5,000: Carpenter is a good play for someone like myself, who doesn’t like investing more than I have to into kicking. While Walsh has the upside Carpenter has, they both are equally as likely to lay a goose-egg and I’d rather just use the 3-500 extra money elsewhere on my roster. Carpenter is a good kicker on a mediocre-to-bad offense. He’ll get you the nice 40 yard field goal occasionally and should be a safe bet for your money.
DST: Detroit Lions—4,700: I think this Lions DST is actually pretty good. They have an absolutely supreme defensive line, which is the main ingredient needed for big plays. D-Lines are the ones that cause fumbles, they stuff the run and force the team to throw, and get sacks—which get you points. Forcing the Bills to throw is exactly what you want to do. I think the Lions have a nice value DST at home this week.
