Week 17 Draft.com NFL DFS Lineup Picks, Promo Code, and Strategy
Week 17 of NFL DFS is here and brings the final daily fantasy contests for the regular season over at Draft. This week is different than most with some teams in the NFL having little motivation to play their starters the entire game, or play them at all (Jags, Chiefs, Eagles). We’ll be monitoring the status of these teams all week. The NFL also arranged the week 17 schedule so that teams will not be able to know their fate before they play. If a game coule possibly mean something, then at the time of kickoff, it will still mean something.
At Draft, H2H and Three-Team draft choices generally come with less risk and more stable floors, while the best 10-Team plays equal lots of risk and upside. Taking a chance on players with high ceilings and low floors is a good way to separate from the field.
Let’s talk a little more strategy. As with any daily fantasy sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, gameflow, and various other factors. This is important to remember when drafting a roster at all daily fantasy sites.
Best Week 17 NFL DFS DRAFT.com H2H and Three-Team Picks
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady vs. NYJ
Kirk Cousins @ NYG
Cam Newton @ ATL
Even if the Patriots weren’t playing for the top overall seed in the AFC, Tom Brady and his teammates would be motivated as always to crush their hated rivals, the Jets. As is stands, they need a win to ensure home field advantage and Brady should be able to carve up a Jets team that ranks 22nd in DVOA pass defense while giving up the fourth-most passing TDs (28) in the NFL this year.
Cam Newton and the Panthers are also playing for playoff seeding as well as the pleasure of bouncing their hated rivals in the from the last spot in the NFC. Atlanta’s been up-and-down in pass defense all year, but remains vulnerable against mobile QBs and Newton maintained his solid floor with a late rushing TD in a win last Sunday.
Somehow, Kirk Cousins managed to throw three TDs against the Broncos elite defense with limited weapons at his disposal, so he’s clearly a prime draft choice this week against a Giants team that’s given up the most passing TDs (32) in the NFL this year. With top CB Janoris Jenkins (ankle) done for the season, the G-Men have fallen apart at the back end in recent weeks.
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Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell vs. CLE
Ezekiel Elliott @ PHI
Mark Ingram @ TB
Le’Veon Bell should continue to benefit from positive game flow with the hapless Browns visiting Pittsburgh this weekend. Cleveland’s run defense has improved, but LVB is such an elite dual threat that he can burn the Steelers’ winless foe in multiple ways and he should see even more work in the passing game with Antonio Brown (calf) out. The Steelers can still earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and a Patriots loss, so this game does have meaning.
Ezekiel Elliott failed to find the end zone against a desperate Seahawks team playing for their playoff lives, but this week he could be facing the Eagles backup defenders. Regardless, he’s seeing heavy volume behind arguably the best offensive line in football and should only improve in his second week back from suspension.
Give the nod to Mark Ingram over Alvin Kamara this week based on the matchup. Tampa’s holding receiving backs in check to an extent, but has allowed the third-most rushing TDs (16) in the NFL and ranks 21st in DVOA run defense this season. Both backs are great picks depending on when they’re available. Saints need a win to clinch the NFL South.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Keenan Allen vs. OAK
Julio Jones vs. CAR
Rob Gronkowski vs. NYJ
Keenan Allen provided modest production in a plus matchup against the Jets and draws an even better matchup this week against a Raiders team that could be ready to quit after suffering a heartbreaking loss in Philadelphia on Christmas Night. Allen is still capable of blowing up in the right spot and the Chargers need to go all out for a playoff spot.
Julio Jones just topped 100 receiving yards against elite young CB Marshon Lattimore and the Saints. He had the biggest game of his career with 300 receiving yards against Carolina last year and will be at home in a huge game for Atlanta. Win, and they’re in.
Perhaps the most valuable player in a Patriots uniform, Rob Gronkowski came up with an incredible TD catch on his way to five receptions for 67 yards in a win over Buffalo. The Patriots stay home to face a Jets team that coughed up 83 yards and two scores to Gronk back in Week 5 and he’s clearly worth picking early.
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Best Week 17 NFL DFS 6- to 10-Team League Picks
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger vs. CLE
Matthew Stafford vs. GB
Jameis Winston vs. NO
Jimmy Garoppolo @ LAR
Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t have much of a ceiling in a likely blowout win over the Browns this week, but he was in a similar matchup Monday and still managed solid numbers with 226 passing yards and 2 TDs in an easy win at Houston. The Browns rank 28th in DVOA pass defense and first against the run, so the Steelers should air it out despite the absence of Antonio Brown.
The Packers secondary has been awful lately and the Lions always seem to run their offense through Matthew Stafford. He threw for 361 yards and 2 TDs at Green Bay in November and now he’ll be comfortably indoors where the Lions pass-happy offense thrives.
Jameis Winston struggled earlier this year as he dealt with an AC joint sprain, but he looks refreshed after resting that ailment and is coming off an impressive performance against the Panthers last week. The Saints pass defense is strong on the perimeter, but vulnerable over the middle and Winston has sneaky mobility that can add to his floor as a late-round pick.
Speaking of players with high floors, Jimmy Garoppolo somehow managed to produce his highest FP total of the season against the Jaguars top-ranked defense last week. The Rams defense is no slouch either, but you have to believe in this kid as the real deal until he proves otherwise.
Running Backs
Kenyan Drake vs. BUF
Leonard Fournette @ TEN
LeSean McCoy @ MIA
Dion Lewis vs. NYJ
Kenyan Drake failed to find many holes against a reinvigorated Chiefs defense last week, but is a strong bounce-back candidate to consider against a Bills team that gives up the most FPPG to opposing RBs and ranks 28th in DVOA run defense this season.
Offensively, the Bills should continue to lean on LeSean McCoy as a workhorse since there is still an outside chance they could make the playoffs with a win in sunny Miami this Sunday.
Leonard Fournette is a back that needs to be watched carefully in pre-game news, as the Jaguars could rest key starters in Tennessee since they’re basically locked into the third seed in the AFC. Yet if HC Doug Marrone rebukes that strategy, Fournette would be locked and loaded as a late-round value.
Dion Lewis is an excellent pick and may even be worth taking in the early rounds of 3-team drafts. The pint-sized wonder flashed his upside with two TDs last week and he’ll continue to see heavy usage with Rex Burkhead (knee) doubtful and James White (ankle) questionable for the regular season finale.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
A.J. Green @ BAL
Adam Thielen vs. CHI
Michael Thomas @ TB
JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. CLE
A.J. Green always has the potential to blow up and he’s posted strange road splits throughout his career. The Ravens solid pass defense has become vulnerable against opposing WRs with top CB Jimmy Smith (Achilles) done for the season and that makes Green worth a look as a late-round pick.
Adam Thielen has taken the league by storm this year, but virtually disappeared on a frigid night in Green Bay last Saturday. Yet he could bounce back indoors in Minnesota against a Bears cornerback that features plus-sized corners, who might struggle to contain his quickness.
After battling through a hamstring injury in Week 16, Michael Thomas will likely be healthier ahead of an even better matchup at Tampa this week. The Bucs cough up the most passing YPG (262.5) in the NFL this season and rank 29th in DVOA pass defense.
While he’s nowhere near the same level of player as Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster is trying to step into AB’s role as the primary receiver for Pittsburgh. He corralled six of seven targets for 75 yards and a TD in a juicy matchup against the Texans on Christmas and draws a similarly plum matchup this week.
