Week 16 NFL DFS DraftKings Stacks & Lineup Picks

Written By Nate Lawson on December 22, 2017

DraftKings.com NFL DFS Week 16 Stack Picks for Cash and GPP Lineups

Week 16 of NFL DFS is already here, and everyone is looking score in one of the big-money daily fantasy football contests at DraftKings. Every week, we’ll take a look at the top stacks for players over at DraftKings, finding optimal combinations based on matchup, usage, and recent performance, among other noteworthy metrics.

As with any daily fantasy sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player, stack, or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, gameflow, and more. This is important to keep in mind when constructing a roster at any daily fantasy sports site.

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Week 16 DraftKings.com NFL DFS Top Stacks

Kirk Cousins ($5.4K), Vernon Davis ($3.6K) vs. DEN – GPP
Make no mistake, Denver is good against the run. They rank second in rushing DVOA. But they’re average (15th) in passing DVOA and 26th in TE DVOA. It should come as no surprise why I’m leaning toward a Kirk CousinsVernon Davis stack then. With Jordan Reed out for the year, Davis is the top TE option in Washington, and Denver has long struggled to defend that position.

With no strong running game to be found in yet another Washington season (though Samaje Perine has been OK at times), I really don’t think they’ll be able to run it at all against Denver. That should lead to more work for Cousins, who has fewer than 30 attempts in each of his past two games. While his past several outings have led to DK-point totals in the mid-teens, at just $5.4K, he’s in a great buy-low spot against a shaky Denver team. Oh, and Cousins has that whole big contract he’s still playing for. Look for him to at least attempt to take a big step up in what could be his final Washington home game.

Drew Stanton ($4.6K), Larry Fitzgerald ($6.8K) vs. NYG – GPP
As I mentioned yesterday, the Giants’ defense is without their best player and just isn’t very good this year. That defense has also allowed 64 points over its last two games. With a $4.6K price tag, Drew Stanton is just too cheap not to consider, even if we only really have a two-game sample size this year.

And if you’re going Stanton, you should also consider Larry Fitzgerald. He is most primed to succeed against this battered Giants secondary. In the last game Stanton started, Fitzgerald saw a whopping 14 targets, 10 of which he reeled in for 113 yards. And that was against Seattle. The Giants rank 25th in passing DVOA, which gives Stanton a better floor. These two make a sneaky stack in GPPs, specifically the Milly Maker, as ARI vs. NYG is the latest game on the slate.

Drew Brees ($6.5K), Mark Ingram ($8.1K) vs. ATL – CASH
I wrote about these two yesterday, so it only makes sense that they end up here a day later. Like I said in the top plays piece, I wasn’t originally targeting the Saints offense. But then I saw the 29 implied points they’re expected to score this week. While they did only score 17 points in their first meeting against Atlanta this season, Drew Brees at home is a force to be reckoned with. The Saints also need this win to ensure they remain at least tied for first in the NFC South. That seems like motivation enough for Brees, and it doesn’t hurt that Atlanta’s defense ranks 25th in DVOA.

As for Mark Ingram, he’s averaging six targets and five receptions per game over his last three. As his Saints are -5.5 home favorites, he should see a carry total in the low to mid-teens. Also, Atlanta ranks 30th in rushing DVOA, which gives Ingram, like Brees, a very solid floor. They also provide ample upside with that Vegas implied score and home-field advantage.

Kareem Hunt ($8.3K), Kansas City D/ST ($2.8K) vs. MIA – CASH
The former frontrunner to win Rookie of the Year, Kareem Hunt flashed his early-season upside last week with 42.6 DraftKings points. The week prior, he scored 25.8. He certainly seems “back” after nine consecutive games with less than 20 DraftKings points, with three of those games being single-digit performances. The Chiefs welcome Miami this week, and KC are 10-point favorites to win. The blowout potential is real, which should lead to more work for Hunt. Miami ranks 26th in DVOA and just allowed LeSean McCoy to rack up 95 total yards and two touchdowns last week.

Against the Bills, the Dolphins scored just 16 points. Plus, Jay Cutler threw three interceptions. The Chiefs’ biggest challenge will be stopping Kenyan Drake, and they do rank a horrible 31st in rushing DVOA. However, the Chiefs have played inspired football of late, shutting down the Chargers and Oakland, who combined for just 28 total points in the past two weeks against Kansas City. Miami is far worse than both those offenses. And Jay Cutler’s turnover-prone style opens up the potential for points off interceptions with upside for a defensive touchdown. Hunt and the KC D/ST are viable options to stack in both Cash and GPP.

Todd Gurley ($9.1K), LA Rams D/ST ($3.6K) @ TEN – GPP
Unlike the last play, Todd Gurley and the LA Rams D/ST is strictly a tournament play in my book. Gurley’s price tag really kills your cap, and I’m not sure you can afford him without taking some drastic risks elsewhere. That said, I think the markup to the elite pricing tier (>$9K) should scare off the majority of DFS players, even after Gurley’s four-TD performance last week.

This week, he and the Rams get a Tennessee Titans team that has lost control of the AFC South. The streaking Jaguars are likely too much for the struggling Titans to overcome. Plus, Tennessee, while ranking 10th in rushing DVOA, are terrible at defending pass-catching backs. Gurley has the explosiveness to overcome any defense, let alone one that gets so little support from its offense. Between that and his workload, Gurley carries massive GPP appeal. His floor isn’t bad either. He’s totaled 100 total yards in each of the past four weeks.

As for the Rams D/ST, they just shut down a Seattle team to the tune of just seven points allowed. While LA have been burned by good offenses before, Tennessee hardly qualifies for that category. Further, LA ranks third in DVOA and third in passing DVOA. While they can be exploited in the running game (where they rank 19th), Tennessee’s lack of a clear back has prevented them from truly mounting consistency out of the backfield. Aaron Donald and company should be able to hold their own, with plenty of upside, as Tennessee is fourth in the league in interceptions on the season, while also throwing the third-fewest touchdown passes.

Philip Rivers ($6.8K), Keenan Allen ($7.7K), Antonio Gates ($2.5K) @ NYJ – GPP
I almost never stack more than two guys from the same team, but Hunter Henry’s trip to the IR changes things this week. At just $2.5K, Antonio Gates is an absolute steal. Plus, the nearly retired all-time great just caught a touchdown last week. Keenan Allen, meanwhile, is a usage monster, with eight 10+ target games this season. As I wrote yesterday, he’ll get plenty of work against a bad Jets secondary.

Of course, there’s the man throwing these two the ball. Philip Rivers looked bad last week against Kansas City. Now, he and the Los Angeles Chargers are in a must-win game on the road. Fortunately, the Jets rank 22nd in passing DVOA and dead last in WR1 DVOA. Rivers and Allen should continue connecting at one of the highest rates among all QB-WR combos in the league. For what it’s worth, Rivers has averaged 28 DK points per game over his last five games, even with last week’s dud. Look for these two to really reap the benefits of a good passing day, while Gates gets the most run he’s seen all season.

Other Stacks to Consider:
Jared Goff, Robert Woods
Cam Newton, Greg Olsen
Matthew Stafford, Eric Ebron
Blake Bortles, Dede Westbrook

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Nate Lawson

Nate began playing DFS back in 2013, focusing on low stakes MLB contests over at DraftKings. Now, the vast majority of his DFS time is spent identifying optimal picks and player exposure for NBA and NFL GPPs, though MMA and eSports are his DFS guilty pleasures. With a focus on constant iteration, Nate spends a lot of his non-DFS time reading books and essays by leaders in finance and entrepreneurship for application to his DFS strategies...with a bit of cryptocurrency trading on the side.

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