Week 13 Draft.com NFL DFS Lineup Picks, Promo Code, and Strategy
Week 13 of NFL DFS is here, and everyone is looking to score the big money at DRAFT DFS. Every week, we’ll bring you our top daily fantasy NFL picks for each position and recommend them as safer plays for H2H and smaller leagues and/or 6- to 10-Team league plays.
H2H and Three-Team draft choices generally come with less risk and more stable floors, while the best 10-Team plays equal lots of risk and upside. Taking a chance on players with high ceilings and low floors is a good way to separate from the field.
Let’s talk a little more strategy. As with any daily fantasy sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, gameflow, and various other factors. This is important to remember when drafting a roster.
Best Week 13 NFL DFS DRAFT.com H2H and Three-Team Picks
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady @ BUF
Russell Wilson vs. PHI
Carson Wentz @ SEA
Philip Rivers vs. CLE
In a league short of quality coaching and quarterback play, Tom Brady remains king. His coaches put him in position to succeed, and they should find plenty of holes to exploit with the Bills coming to town. Buffalo’s given up 34 pass plays of 20-plus yards and is vulnerable at all levels despite renewed effort at Kansas City last week.
Seeing “at Seattle” on the schedule is not nearly as daunting as it used to be. Carson Wentz is playing well enough to finish as a top three QB regardless of matchup. Yet with Earl Thomas (hamstring) hobbled and both Richard Sherman (Achilles) and Kam Chancellor (neck) out for the season, the Legion of Boom is falling apart.
The Eagles are facing the most pass attempts per game in the NFL because they’re so good against the run. The Seahawks’ only consistent source of rushing yardage is Russell Wilson anyway.
It’s hard not to chase the FPs by using Philip Rivers this week since he goes from facing a crashing Cowboys team to the worst team in the last decade in the Browns. Cleveland’s been far more vulnerable against the pass than the run and will literally have no answer for an elite WR in Keenan Allen.
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Running Backs
Mark Ingram vs. CAR
Todd Gurley @ ARI
Jordan Howard vs. SF
This is a brutal slate for the top RBs in the NFL, but Todd Gurley leads the charge by default. He boasts the highest guaranteed volume next to Le’Veon Bell (who plays on MNF). His matchup is far from ideal against the Cardinals, but his floor is higher than any other back.
Mark Ingram still has tons of upside depending on how gameflow and scoring situations shake out for the Saints at home. I would be willing to fade Alvin Kamara for the first time in awhile because the Panthers have the best coverage LBs in the NFL in Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis.
Jordan Howard is an intriguing mid-round pick as he draws the best matchup on this slate. He’ll face a 49ers team that ranks 23rd in DVOA run defense and has given up the third-most RuYPG (129.5) in the NFL this year. Howard holds a tight grip on goal-line work for the Bears.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen vs. CLE
Adam Thielen @ ATL
Julio Jones vs. TB
Brandin Cooks @ BUF
Keenan Allen is on fire and has appeared completely uncoverable while catching 23-of-27 targets for 331 yards and three TDs over his last two games. Now, he faces a Browns team that ranks dead last in DVOA pass defense against the opposition’s top target.
Adam Thielen has emerged as one of the most consistent receivers in the NFL this season. His outlook could significantly improve if the Falcons’ top CB Desmond Trufant (concussion) is inactive this week. Regardless, Thielen moves around the formation and should draw his share of favorable matchups with hot QB Case Keenum delivering him the ball.
Julio Jones shouldn’t be over-drafted as you chase his output from last week, but he’s worth deploying in the hopes that new OC Steve Sarkisian figures out how to scheme him open in a very tough matchup. The Vikings have one of the best CBs in the league in Xavier Rhodes but are vulnerable in the slot. Look for Atlanta to get Jones matched up on slower DB Captain Munnerlyn this Sunday.
The Patriots are using Brandin Cooks as an all-around weapon. He’s taken advantage of a couple of plus matchups with a combined 232 receiving yards and two TDs over his last two games. He should be able to sustain that success against a struggling Bills defense with Tom Brady finding him and Josh McDaniels scheming him open.
Best Week 13 NFL DFS 6- to 10-Team League Picks
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton @ NO
Drew Brees vs. CAR
Case Keenum @ ATL
Marcus Mariota vs. HOU
The Saints’ previously staunch pass defense has sprung holes. Cam Newton should be able to exploit some of those issues if he has his top WR active in Devin Funchess (toe). Either way, Newton makes for a solid late-round pick in a potential shootout under the Superdome.
Drew Brees is always worth a look at home, and the Panthers’ ability to stop the run could actually play right into his hands. He carved up Carolina on the road for 220 yards and 3 TDs on 22-of-29 passing in Week 2 and is obviously far more dangerous on the fast turf in New Orleans.
Case Keenum is playing as well as any QB in the NFL not named Tom Brady or Carson Wentz right now. His matchup would see a significant bump if the Falcons are down their top CB in Trufant. Keenum’s also demonstrated an impressive ability to scramble and great toughness at the goal line while rushing for 40 yards and a TD over his last two appearances.
While Marcus Mariota completely flopped in a plus matchup last week, he’s worth a look against an injury-depleted Texans defense at home. You can probably snag him with your final pick in 10-team drafts, but Mariota has as much upside as any QB. He’s a true dual threat, plus he should have his favorite WR back in Rishard Matthews.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette vs. IND
Dion Lewis @ BUF
Alvin Kamara vs. CAR
Christian McCaffrey @ NO
Dion Lewis certainly doesn’t profile as an elite runner between the tackles, but he’s been the Patriots’ primary rusher while Mike Gillislee hasn’t seen the field in weeks. The Bills are ranked 31st in DVOA run defense, and the Patriots will always exploit the enemy’s weakness by playing smart offensive football.
I said I’d be willing to fade Alvin Kamara, but that doesn’t mean he should go undrafted in 10-team leagues. He’s the only RB in league history to average seven yard per carry on a legitimate amount of touches, and the Saints coaching staff will find ways to get him in the ball in positions to score.
Leonard Fournette is worth a gamble despite getting nothing going last week and having a couple of rushing TDs vultured by Blake Bortles. Now, he faces the under-sized Colts defense and could feast on carries with positive gameflow.
Christian McCaffrey faces a Saints defense that gives up the most receiving YPG (54.25) to opposing RBs this year in part because they often play such high-scoring games. Despite Jonathan Stewart’s usage at the goal line, McCaffrey remains a superior play with a higher floor.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DeAndre Hopkins @ TEN
Mike Evans vs. GB
Demaryius Thomas vs. MIA
Rob Gronkowski @ BUF
You can probably get DeAndre Hopkins in the later rounds because of his QB situation, but he draws a very favorable matchup this week against the Titans’ weak secondary. Ultimately, Hopkins is capable of blowing up no matter who throws him the ball.
Mike Evans has a shot to serve as this week’s breakout WR the same way Julio Jones blew up last week. He continues to draw double-digit targets (12 last week) and faces a Packers defense that ranks 25th in DVOA pass defense against opposing top WRs this year. Green Bay stood no chance against the last elite wideout they faced in Antonio Brown.
Demaryius Thomas fizzled along with the rest of the Broncos’ offense in a juicy matchup at Oakland. But he’ll get a shot at redemption with a more familiar QB throwing him the ball in Trevor Siemian. Miami ranks 31st in DVOA pass defense with CBs that lack physicality.
Rob Gronkowski always deserves consideration given his multi-touchdown upside as he has a higher ceiling than most WRs that makes up for low floor. The New York native has historically turned up when facing the Bills and faces a far inferior defensive unit than he’s seen in the past.
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