The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) and the Atlanta Falcons (3-3) square off on Sunday, October 22, 2023 at Raymond James Stadium in a battle of NFC South opponents, and here are best bets recommendations.
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Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this matchup is within 0.1 points of the model. Stay away from this one.
- Tampa Bay is 3-2-0 ATS this season.
- The Buccaneers are yet to lose ATS (1-0) as a 2.5-point favorite or greater this season.
- Tampa Bay is 1-2 against the spread over its last three games, and has a 1-2 straight-up record in those matchups.
- Atlanta is 1-5-0 against the spread this season.
- The Falcons have not covered the spread this season (0-2 ATS) when playing as at least 2.5-point underdogs.
- Atlanta is winless against the spread (0-3) and 1-2 overall in its past three matchups.
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Total: Under 37
- DraftKings and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this game, within 0.9 points of each other.
- Atlanta has played in three games this season where they and their opponents combined to score more than 37 points.
- Games featuring the Buccaneers have hit the over just once this season.
- Games featuring the Falcons have gone over the point total just once this season.
Moneyline Winner: Buccaneers (-155)
Tampa Bay 19 – Atlanta 17
- Tampa Bay has been listed as the moneyline favorite only one other time so far this season, a game they won.
- Atlanta has lost both games it has played as underdogs this season.
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Buccaneers and Falcons Splits
|On the Road||2-0||0-2|
|One Possession Games||1-0||2-1|
Want more information about this game? Take a look at the full preview here!
Desmond Ridder Passing TDs: Under 1.50 (-245)
- 2023 Season: 1,380 PASS YDS / 230.0 YPG / 64% / 6 TD / 6 INT
- In Falcons’ Last 5 Games: 1,265 PASS YDS / 253.0 YPG / 62.2% / 5 TD / 6 INT
- In Falcons’ Last 3 Games: 827 PASS YDS / 275.7 YPG / 65.2% / 4 TD / 5 INT
- Ridder has thrown for a touchdown five times this year in six games played, including multiple passing TD once.
Rachaad White Rushing Yards: Under 46.50 (-115)
- 2023 Season: 70 CAR / 232 YDS / 46.4 YPG / 1 TD
- In Buccaneers’ Last 5 Games: 70 CAR / 232 YDS / 46.4 YPG / 1 TD
- In Buccaneers’ Last 3 Games: 70 CAR / 232 YDS / 46.4 YPG / 1 TD
- White gains 46.4 rushing yards per game this season, which falls shy of Sunday’s prop total of 46.5 yards.
Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards: Under 25.50 (-120)
- 2023 Season: 26 REC / 189 YDS / 31.5 YPG / 2 TD
- In Falcons’ Last 5 Games: 20 REC / 162 YDS / 32.4 YPG / 1 TD
- In Falcons’ Last 3 Games: 12 REC / 87 YDS / 29.0 YPG / 1 TD
- Robinson’s 31.5 receiving yards per game average are 6.0 more than his prop bet over/under in Sunday’s outing (25.5).
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