Patriots Vs Saints: NFL Betting Trends, Stats And Computer Predictions – Week 3

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 26, 2021

A Week 3 matchup features the New England Patriots (1-1) taking the field against the New Orleans Saints (1-1). The Patriots (-2.5) welcome the Saints (+130 to win on the moneyline) on September 26, 2021 at 1:00 PM ET on FOX. The over/under for the game is set at 43.5 points.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of September 26, 2021, 2:48 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Patriots Vs Saints Odds

Computer Pick

Computer picks for Patriots vs Saints
ATS pick Over/Under pick
Patriots (-2.5) Under (43.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Team Stat Rankings (2020)

Patriots Saints
Off. Points per Game (Rank) 20.4 (27) 30.1 (5)
Def. Points per Game (Rank) 22.1 (7) 21.1 (5)
Off. Yards per Play (Rank) 5.3 (21) 5.8 (11)
Def. Yards per Play (Rank) 5.8 (22) 5.0 (4)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank) 19 (14) 17 (7)
Turnovers Forced (Rank) 22 (10) 26 (3)

Patriots Betting Insights

  • Against the spread, New England was 7-9-0 last season.
  • Against the spread, as 2.5-point favorites or greater, the Patriots went 3-4 last season.
  • There were five New England games (out of 16) that hit the over last year.
  • New England’s games had more than 43.5 points scored on seven occasions last season.
  • The point total average for Patriots games last season was 44.8, 1.3 more points than the over/under for this matchup.

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Saints Betting Insights

  • New Orleans’ record against the spread last season was 9-7-0.
  • The Saints won once ATS (1-1) as underdogs of 2.5 points or more last year.
  • In 16 New Orleans games last season, 10 of them went over the total.
  • There were 11 New Orleans games last year with more than 43.5 points scored.
  • The average total for Saints games last season was 47.8 points, 4.3 more than this game’s over/under.

Patriots Players to Watch

  • Damien Harris picked up 691 rushing yards (57.6 per game) and two touchdowns last season.
  • James White ran for 121 yards on 35 carries (7.6 yards per game), with two rushing touchdowns last year. He also made his name known on the passing side with 49 receptions for 375 yards (23.4 per game) and one TD.
  • Nelson Agholor reeled in 48 catches for 896 yards (56.0 per game) while being targeted 82 times. He also scored eight touchdowns.
  • Jakobi Meyers also impressed receiving last season. He collected 59 receptions for 729 yards. He was targeted 81 times.
  • Kendrick Bourne reeled in 49 passes for 667 yards and two touchdowns, putting up 41.7 yards per game last year.
  • Matthew Judon did his thing last season with an incredible stat line of 6.0 sacks, 9.5 TFL and 68 tackles.
  • Adrian Phillips was a wrecking ball on the field, collecting 142 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 1.0 sack, and two interceptions last year.
  • J.C. Jackson intercepted nine passes last year while also totaling 46 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 14 passes defended.

Saints Players to Watch

  • Taysom Hill threw four touchdowns and two interceptions while accumulating 928 yards by the end of last season (58.0 ypg). He led the team on the ground, scoring eight touchdowns on 28.6 rushing yards per game.
  • Alvin Kamara averaged 58.3 rushing yards per game and collected 16 rushing touchdowns last year. Kamara complemented his rushing performance with 5.5 receptions per game to average 47.3 receiving yards.
  • Marquez Callaway caught 21 passes last season on his way to 213 yards.
  • Deonte Harris averaged 14.3 receiving yards per game on 2.8 targets per game a season ago.
  • Last year Cameron Jordan put pressure on opposing quarterbacks with 7.5 sacks, and added 13.0 TFL and 68 tackles.
  • Demario Davis put together a strong stat line last year, collecting 165 tackles, 11.0 TFL, and 4.0 sacks.
  • Marcus Williams came up with three interceptions in addition to 79 tackles, 0.5 TFL, and seven passes defended a year ago.

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