Week 12 Draft.com NFL DFS Lineup Picks, Promo Code, and Strategy
Week 12 of NFL DFS is here, and everyone is looking to cash in on the big money at DRAFT. Every week, we’ll bring you our top daily fantasy NFL picks for each position and recommend them as safer plays for H2H and smaller leagues and/or 6- to 10-Team league plays.
H2H and Three-Team draft choices generally come with less risk and more stable floors, while the best 10-Team plays equal lots of risk and upside. Taking a chance on players with high ceilings and low floors is a good way to separate from the field.
Let’s talk a little more strategy. As with any DFS sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, gameflow, and various other factors. This is important to remember when drafting a roster.
Best Week 12 NFL DFS DRAFT.com H2H and Three-Team Picks
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady vs. MIA
Russell Wilson @ SF
Carson Wentz vs. CHI
Cam Newton @ NYJ
The Patriots have only punted three times over their last two games. Tom Brady is the best active QB with Aaron Rodgers on the shelf, and he faces a horrible Dolphins pass defense that made Ryan Fitzpatrick look borderline elite last week. Needless to say, he’s a QB1 option at home this week.
The 49ers’ defense remains almost equally vulnerable to the pass and the run, and Russell Wilson is leading the Seahawks in both categories. He posted a 103.7 passer rating over two meetings with San Francisco last season and could see more volume than expected considering the state of the Seahawks’ defense.
Fading Carson Wentz is a dangerous proposition right now, as he simply finds ways to make plays and is getting ample opportunities to score with the Eagles’ defense shutting down opposing offenses. The Bears’ secondary is a tough matchup for most QBs, but they’re vulnerable on one side of the fielder where Kyle Fuller plays CB. The Eagles’ intelligent coaching staff will likely exploit that weakness
If you’re looking for pure upside, Cam Newton has it in spades. Because he’s the best rushing QB in the NFL, Newton has even more appeal on a 0.5 PPR site like Draft. This week, he faces a Jets team that’s giving up the second-most RuYPG (20.4) to opposing QBs this season. The Jets aren’t great in pass coverage either, and it seems that moving Kelvin Benjamin via trade has helped Newton become a more balanced passer.
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Running Backs
Mark Ingram @ LAR
Todd Gurley @ NO
Kareem Hunt vs. BUF
Le’Veon Bell vs. GB
Mark Ingram continued to find pay dirt on Sunday, collecting his eighth TD since the Saints’ bye week. He compiled 155 yards as a runner and receiver in a comeback win over Washington. Gameflow should work in his favor against an overachieving Rams team that only managed one first-quarter score in Minnesota last week. LA is giving up the fifth-most RuYPG (123.3) in the NFL this season.
Le’Veon Bell can never be counted out as an elite option, especially when the Steelers play at home. That being said, he faces a reinvigorated Packers run defense with a veritable stopper at NT in Mike Daniels. Bell might not be worth the top overall pick, as he is in some weeks.
Todd Gurley is safe to deploy despite the likelihood that the Rams fall behind at home. He’s caught 73 percent (38 receptions) of the 52 targets he’s drawn this season. Sean McVay is too smart to take his best player off the field regardless of the situation, and the Saints have been far more vulnerable on the ground, where they rank 25th in DVOA run defense this year.
Kareem Hunt couldn’t find much running room against a Giants team that seemed surprisingly motivated to play last week. Now, he faces the dumpster fire known as the Buffalo Bills. Since trading elite DT Marcell Dareus to Jacksonville, Buffalo’s coughed up an absurd 638 rushing yards and nine touchdowns over their last three games. Hunt should get back on track in this matchup.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Antonio Brown vs. GB
A.J. Green vs. CLE
Julio Jones vs. TB
Travis Kelce vs. BUF
Antonio Brown is without question the best WR in the league and a fantastic first overall pick in a home tilt against the Packers. Gameflow is a concern without Aaron Rodgers in uniform, as Brett Hundley couldn’t lead his team to any points at home last week. But the Steelers should be able to build their lead by attacking Green Bay’s below average corners on a team that ranks 23rd in DVOA pass defense and 23rd against opposing top receivers.
A.J. Green managed to produce with a huge late TD against the Broncos’ elite defense on Sunday. Now, he faces arguably the worst secondary in the league. The Browns have at least been the worst defense against opposing top receivers with Joe Haden gone, and Green waltzed to 63 receiving yards and a TD in a Week 4 meeting with Cleveland. And that’s when he was still getting acclimated to new OC Bill Lazor.
Julio Jones continues to fizzle in spots both good and bad, as the Falcons’ new OC Steve Sarkisian simply hasn’t been up to snuff. Yet he’s worth a flier as a mid-round pick this week against a Tampa team that ranks 28th in DVOA pass defense and is giving up the most FPPG (41.53) to opposing WRs this season.
Travis Kelce has a fantastic floor right now because of how creatively Andy Reid is using him. He’s another player to deploy against the struggling Bills defense, which has yet to face too many elite TEs but has been vulnerable in all facets recently.
Best Week 12 NFL DFS 6- to 10-Team League Picks
Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota @ IND
Drew Brees @ LAR
Ben Roethlisberger vs. GB
Alex Smith vs. BUF
Marcus Mariota should slide under the radar after tossing four picks in a loss to Pittsburgh last Thursday. But he still produced with 306 passing yards and a rushing TD. He’s getting much healthier, adding a playmaking dynamic to his arsenal and obviously draws a plus matchup against a Colts team that’s given up the most pass plays of 20-plus yards this season (47).
Drew Brees finally came through in DFS contests as the Saints fell behind early to Washington before coming back on Sunday. That’s a possible outcome again in a road game against the high-scoring Rams. Regardless, Brees should find ways to get his playmakers the ball and could be forced into more action if Aaron Donald and company can slow down the Saints’ excellent running game.
Alex Smith and the Chiefs absolutely flopped in a winnable matchup against the Giants but now return home to face a backsliding Bills team. Buffalo has been eviscerated on the ground and through the air in three consecutive weeks.
Finally, Ben Roethlisberger is worth a look as a relatively safe play at home against a middling Packers pass defense. Since game is highly unlikely to turn into a shootout with Brett Hundley captaining the Packers, Big Ben is merely a late-round stab as a potential pairing with Antonio Brown.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette @ ARI
LeSean McCoy @ KC
Alvin Kamara @ LAR
Christian McCaffrey @ NYJ
Leonard Fournette returned to his role as a workhorse for the Jaguars last week, compiling 118 yards on 30 touches in a beatdown of the lowly Browns. He’s still a risky option given his ankle woes, the coaching staff’s willingness to bench him, and a tough matchup against the Cardinals’ front seven, but Arizona fill-in QB Blaine Gabbert is likely to struggle against the league’s top-ranked pass defense. This sets Fournette up for success with positive gameflow.
Regardless of who plays QB, the Bills want to ride LeSean McCoy and try to keep their struggling defense off the field. He draws a juicy matchup this week against a Chiefs team that ranks dead last in DVOA run defense this year. Notably, Kansas City couldn’t stop straightforward runner Orleans Darkwa last week.
Alvin Kamara continues to split work out of the Saints backfield, and he’ll remain an excellent option with as much upside as Ingram in a plus matchup. The Rams are weaker on the edges, and the Saints’ coaching staff will look to get Kamara in space and away from all-world DT Aaron Donald.
Christian McCaffrey is a great late-round option to consider as a dual threat for the surging Panthers. He was all over the field in a beatdown of the Dolphins prior to Carolina’s bye week and should see more work than Jonathan Stewart in this matchup. The Jets’ linebackers are not nearly quick enough to contain him in the passing game.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
T.Y Hilton vs. TEN
Rob Gronkowski vs. MIA
Demaryius Thomas @ OAK
Brandin Cooks vs. MIA
The Patriots’ spread-the-wealth offense makes it a bit tough to trust any particular receiving option, but both Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks ooze upside this week. They match up against a Dolphins team that ranks 23rd in DVOA pass defense against opposing TEs and 27th against opposing top WRs.
Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both have a shot at big games against the Raiders’ doormat of a secondary. Thomas has been targeted more often in the red zone, but Sanders is more of a mismatch for the Raiders hulking, slower cornerbacks. They’re both solid late-round picks as the Broncos move on from fired OC Mike McCoy and QB Brock Osweiler in favor of young Paxton Lynch.
T.Y. Hilton is always extremely dangerous at home, and he’ll be a very tough cover for a Titans team that ranks 24th in DVOA pass defense and was just torched by Antonio Brown last Thursday night. The Colts will design ways for Hilton to get open as they come out of their bye week.
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