Week 10 NFL DFS Sleeper Picks & Contrarian Plays at DraftKings

Written By Nate Lawson on November 10, 2017

Week 10 DraftKings NFL DFS Pivot, Sleeper, and Contrarian Plays

Week 10 of NFL DFS is upon us, and everyone is looking to cash in on the big money DFS NFL contests at DraftKings. Every week, we’ll take a look at the top pivot plays off the chalk, as well as identify contrarian options and sleepers. And to keep up with all things PlayPicksfollow us on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

As with any daily fantasy sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player, stack, or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, gameflow, and more. This is important when constructing a roster.

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CHALK: Jared Goff ($6.7K), Matthew Stafford ($6.8K)
LEVERAGE: Tyrod Taylor ($6.3K) vs. NO

I love Jared Goff this week, but I will look to differentiate in some lineups, as I expect he’ll be extremely chalky after his massive 31.44 DraftKings points last week. Matthew Stafford also had a strong outing last week, racking up 25.4 points. He’ll land squarely in the chalk for that reason, but also because he gets a matchup against the Cleveland Browns. Both will be heavily owned and perhaps rightfully so. However, both the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions are -11 against their respective opponents.

Meanwhile, Tyrod Taylor has a tough matchup against a very good New Orleans Saints secondary. But he’s also getting Charles Clay back this week (barring any setbacks), and Kelvin Benjamin is set to make his Buffalo debut. All of a sudden, the Bills have three position players varying in skill from very good to elite (LeSean McCoy being the elite one). Further, the Bills are home underdogs, boasting a pretty good defense of their own. While Taylor is far too risky for Cash, his low ownership, rushing upside, and Benjamin-McCoy-Clay trio make him a very interesting pivot QB play in GPPs.

CONTRARIAN: Kirk Cousins ($5.9K) @ MIN
What is the Washington professional football team going to do against the Minnesota Vikings? Run the ball? Minnesota ranks fourth in DVOA vs. the run, and they’re also road favorites. Without a legitimate lead back to be found, Washington will likely be forced to move the ball through the air. That should lead to plenty of opportunities for Kirk Cousins to run this offense. He managed a good game last week against the Seattle Seahawks though he failed to find the end zone. However, the Vikings have allowed such quarterbacks as DeShone Kizer, Mitch Trubisky, Joe Flacco, and Brett Hundley to score at least one touchdown in the last four weeks. Cousins is better than all four of those QBs, and he’s proving capable of putting this team on his shoulders. It’s a risky play, but no one will be on Cousins. And the Vikings’ defense, while good, has benefited from an extremely soft schedule of late.

CHALK: Corey Davis ($4.0K) vs. CIN
PIVOT/CONTRARIAN: Tavarres King ($4.8K) @ SF 
Corey Davis should be extremely chalky this week, as the Tennessee Titans’ first-round pick looks to bring some early returns for the Titans investment. However, this feels like too much, too fast. While I think he is definitely going to be a hot play down the stretch, I don’t know if this week is the one to roll him out. The Bengals are tied for first in fewest receptions allowed, while allowing the third-fewest yards to opposing wideouts. They have given up seven touchdowns this season, but five of those came against Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger.

Meanwhile, Tavarres King is making the most of additional opportunities as a surviving member of a battered Giants receiving crew. Last week, he garnered six targets, converting three into catches for 33 yards and a touchdown. As he and Eli Manning continue to develop a rapport, King should see his role become even more solidified. Against a San Francisco defense ranked 27th in DVOA against the pass, I really like King as a pivot away from Davis. Also, you can strongly consider pivoting to him off Adam Humphries, though Humphries is a guy I like to some degree this week.

CHALK: Devonta Freeman ($6.3K) vs. DAL
LEVERAGE/PIVOT: Alfred Morris ($5.5K) @ ATL
I do really like Devonta Freeman this week, but he hasn’t been his usual self this season. As such, there’s merit in fading him. A good leverage option is Alfred Morris, who has been on standby to take over for Ezekiel Elliott since the start of the season. While many will look his way due to the new opportunities, I think his whopping $5.5K price tag will drive plenty away. After all, you can move slightly up to draft Freeman, Jordan Howard, or Carlos Hyde.

However, Morris finds himself as the likely top back in what should be a high-scoring game. While Darren McFadden is still a thing, he hasn’t seen a single carry this season. The Cowboys should look to maintain some semblance of a running game in Elliott’s absence. The bulk of the workload should go to Morris, a back who actually doesn’t get credit for some strong years in Washington. Unless there is a mad rush to him on Sunday, I’m looking at Morris as a good way to get leverage against the field.

SLEEPER: Ryan Fitzpatrick ($4.9K) @ NYJ
Ryan Fitzpatrick has a narrative working in his favor this week, facing his old team in the New York Jets. He’s extraordinarily cheap and should very easily hit value, barring injury. He showed he still can get it done with a touchdown in limited time as Jameis Winston’s replacement last week. This week, the Buccaneers will be without Winston again, which obviously makes Fitzpatrick an interesting play. That said, Mike Evans will be out due to a suspension, which downgrades “Fitz.”

The veteran quarterback will still have DeSean Jackson and Cameron Brate at his disposal, and the Jets have allowed at least 21 points to opposing team in each of the last four weeks (including the 31 against the Dolphins). If you need to open up cap space, Fitzpatrick is a no-brainer. His floor is just so much higher than the vast majority of position players in the $5K range. I also have a sneaking feeling we won’t see any 30+ point games out of any of this weeks quarterbacks, so I think you have more liberty to fade the chalk.

SLEEPER: Josh McCown ($4.6K) @ TEN
I feel like I can’t stop writing about Josh McCown and Fitzpatrick this week. Why? Because I don’t think you can afford not to have heavy exposure to one of them. I prefer Fitzpatrick, as he has a much easier path to hitting value at just $4.9K. But McCown has the better matchup and has seen much more action this year. While he, like Fitzpatrick, has limited upside, he has proven more than capable of exploiting bad defenses. McCown racked up 25 DK points against the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins last month. While I expect him to land in a similar ownership range as Fitzpatrick, I prefer McCown in Cash at this point. Tampa Bay ranks 31st against the pass in DVOA.

SLEEPER: Kendrick Bourne ($3.0K) vs. NYG
The San Francisco 49ers do not have a good team, but since when has real life had to do with fantasy? Joking aside, there are good plays here at serious discounts. Yes, Carlos Hyde is priced up, but Garrett Celek is extremely cheap for a starting tight end. And Kendrick Bourne, a wideout who isn’t on anyone’s radar, is another intriguing option. Bourne is coming in at $3.0K after a week in which he drew six targets. This is an ultra-risky play, but you saw what the Los Angeles Rams did to the Giants last week. I expect San Francisco to score, and Vegas thinks this game will stay close. I expect Bourne to see five-plus passes come his way again this week.

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Nate Lawson

Nate began playing DFS back in 2013, focusing on low stakes MLB contests over at DraftKings. Now, the vast majority of his DFS time is spent identifying optimal picks and player exposure for NBA and NFL GPPs, though MMA and eSports are his DFS guilty pleasures. With a focus on constant iteration, Nate spends a lot of his non-DFS time reading books and essays by leaders in finance and entrepreneurship for application to his DFS strategies...with a bit of cryptocurrency trading on the side.

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