Phillies Vs Mets: MLB Betting Lines, Stats And Predictions – September 18, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on September 18, 2021

Bryce Harper rides a 13-game hitting streak into the Philadelphia Phillies’ (75-72) game against the New York Mets (72-76), at 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, at Citi Field. Carlos Carrasco starts for New York (-110 to win), and Aaron Nola is Philadelphia’s (-110) choice to start.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of September 18, 2021, 7:00 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to place a bet at DraftKings.

Mets vs Phillies Betting Lines

Mets Betting Insights

  • The Mets have entered the game as favorites 90 times this season and won 50, or 55.6%, of those games.
  • New York has a record of 50-37, a 57.5% win rate, when favored by -110 or more by sportsbooks this season.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 50%.
  • The Mets and their opponents have combined to hit the over six times in their last 10 games with a total.

Mets Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 3-7
Runs Per Game 4.9
HR 13
ERA 4.71
K/9 9.6

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Phillies Betting Insights

  • The Phillies have been victorous in 34, or 51.5%, of the 66 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • Philadelphia has a mark of 34-35 in contests where oddsmakers favor them by -110 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Phillies have an implied victory probability of 50% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • In their previous 10 matchups with a total posted by oddsmakers, the Phillies and their foes are 4-4-2 when it comes to hitting the over.

Phillies Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 4.8
HR 12
ERA 5.73
K/9 10.1

Phillies Probable Pitcher – Aaron Nola

  • Nola (7-8 with a 4.58 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 163 innings pitched) gets the start for the Phillies, his 30th of the season.
  • In his most recent appearance on Sunday, the right-hander tossed 5 1/3 innings against the Rockies, allowing three earned runs while surrendering five hits.
  • Among qualifying pitchers in MLB play this season, the 28-year-old’s 1.120 WHIP ranks 19th, his 202 strikeouts rank eighth, and his 11.20 K/9 ranks sixth.
  • Nola has pitched five or more innings in a game 22 times this season heading into this outing.
  • The Phillies are 2-5 in Nola’s seven starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of September 18, 2021 at 7:08 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Mets Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 72-76
Home 43-32
Road 29-44
vs LHP (Starters) 16-29
vs RHP (Starters) 53-45
Day Games 16-13
Night Games 56-63

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Mets Probable Pitcher – Carlos Carrasco

  • The Mets’ Carrasco (1-2) will make his 10th start of the season.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance was on Monday, when he threw five innings against the Yankees, giving up two earned runs while allowing three hits.
  • The 34-year-old has pitched in nine games this season with a 5.59 ERA, 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings and a batting average against of .258.
  • In nine starts, Carrasco has pitched through or past the fifth inning five times. He has a season average of 4.1 frames per outing.
  • His team has a record of 5-1 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
  • Pitchers reflected above are based on projections as of September 18, 2021 at 7:08 PM ET and may not be the pitchers at game time.

Phillies Hitting Splits

Split Record
Overall 75-72
Home 42-32
Road 33-40
vs LHP (Starters) 21-25
vs RHP (Starters) 53-47
Day Games 25-11
Night Games 50-61

Mets Hitting Stats

  • The Mets average 1.1 home runs per game to rank 24th in baseball with 163 total home runs .
  • The Mets average 0.9 homers per home game this season (70 total at home).
  • New York has hit 13 home runs over the last 10 games.
  • The Mets bring a four-game losing streak into this matchup, over which the team is batting .232 and averaging 3.3 runs per game.
  • Pete Alonso is batting .258 this season with a team-high 33 home runs and 87 RBI.
  • Jonathan Villar has 106 hits and an OBP of .329 to go with a slugging percentage of .437 this season.

Phillies Hitting Stats

  • The Phillies’ 181 home runs rank 15th in Major League Baseball.
  • They have averaged 1.3 home runs per game in their 73 road contests this season.
  • Philadelphia has hit 12 home runs over the last 10 games.
  • Harper has racked up a team-best 33 home runs and 77 runs batted in.
  • Jean Segura is hitting .298 with 25 doubles, three triples, 12 home runs and 32 walks.

Game Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Phillies (-110)

Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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