Week 10 Draft.com NFL DFS Lineup Picks, Promo Code, and Strategy
Week 10 of NFL DFS is upon us, and everyone is looking to cash in on the big money at DRAFT.com. Every week, we’ll bring you our top daily fantasy NFL picks for each position and recommend them as safer plays for H2H and smaller leagues and/or 6-10 team league plays.
H2H and Three-Team draft choices generally come with less risk and more stable floors, while the best 10-team plays equal lots of risk and upside. Taking a chance on players with high ceilings and low floors is a good way to separate from the field.
Let’s talk a little more strategy. As with any DFS sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, gameflow, and various other factors. This is important to remember when drafting a roster.
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Best Week 10 NFL DFS DRAFT.com H2H and Three-Team Picks
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford vs. CLE
Tom Brady @ DEN
Dak Prescott @ ATL
Any QB facing the Browns right now is worth drafting, and Matthew Stafford might actually slip to the later rounds because he’s having a bit of a down year for the Lions (despite a good showing on Monday night against Green Bay). Cleveland ranks 26th in DVOA pass defense and is allowing QBs to post the second-highest passer rating (103) in the NFL this year.
Tom Brady may seem like a poor early draft choice against the stout Denver defense. That unit is much stronger against the run though, where the Patriots struggle, and the Broncos’ secondary was just carved up by Carson Wentz last week. Brady struggled in his last trip to Denver but completed 90 passes with 8 TDs and one pick over his previous three meetings with the Broncos and should attempt over 40 passes if Denver continues to shut down the run.
Dak Prescott bounced back with a huge box score in a win over Kansas City last week and could get into another high-scoring affair on the road at the Georgia Dome this Sunday. Atlanta ranks 25th in DVOA pass defense, and this game has the highest over/under (50.5) of Week 10, while Ezekiel Elliott is finally forced to serve his suspension starting this Sunday, pushing more onto Prescott’s plate.
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell @ IND
Leonard Fournette vs. LAC
LeSean McCoy vs. NO
Le’Veon Bell remains the best back in the NFL and an obvious first overall draft choice this week against the lowly Colts. Indy is worse against the pass, but still ranks 19th in DVOA run defense and 32nd in DVOA specifically against the running back position. Bell torched the Colts for 120 rushing yards and a touchdown last Thanksgiving.
After missing a Week 9 date against the Bengals for disciplinary reasons, Leonard Fournette is expected to return in Week 10 in a juicy matchup. Having not played since Week 7, the Rookie of the Year candidate will be well rested and could run all over a Chargers team that gives up the second-most RuYPG (135.1) at a clip of 4.6 YPC this season.
LeSean McCoy is due to bounce back after the entire Bills team fell completely flat in a Thursday night game last week. He didn’t even join in on the garbage time party hosted by Tyrod Taylor. But Buffalo is home now, where Shady averaged 102.9 RuYPG with 11 TDs over seven appearances last year. He’s posting notable home splits once again with all three of his TDs and 373 of his 546 rushing yards coming at The Ralph this year.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown @ IND
A.J. Green @ TEN
Julio Jones vs. DAL
Golden Tate vs. CLE
Antonio Brown is right there with Bell as a can’t-miss stud in a dream matchup. The Colts have been abysmal against opposing top receivers and missed top CB Vontae Davis (groin) last Sunday as they allowed DeAndre Hopkins to post another big line.
If not for a dropped TD pass, Julio Jones would’ve had yet another huge day against divisional rival Carolina last Sunday. He still caught 6-of-12 targets for a team-high 118 yards in a tough matchup and is in a potential blowup spot against a vulnerable Cowboys secondary that is missing the outside presence of Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne.
A.J. Green is slated to bounce back after getting ejected early in what was a brutal matchup against Jacksonville’s top-ranked secondary. Now, he faces a Titans team ranked 23rd in DVOA pass defense and has no top CB capable of slowing him down on the road, where he’s done most of his damage throughout his career.
Golden Tate will be the latest WR to face a Browns defense most vulnerable to the opposition’s top target. He was able to catch seven balls for 86 yards two weeks ago against Pittsburgh’s vaunted secondary, which includes former Browns top CB Joe Haden. Without Haden, Cleveland ranks 26th in DVOA pass defense and dead last in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers. Tate also totaled 113 yards on Monday night against Green Bay’s less-than-illustrious DB unit.
Best Week 10 NFL DFS 6- to 10-Team League Picks
Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan vs. DAL
Drew Brees @ BUF
Ben Roethlisberger @ IND
Cam Newton @ MIA
Matt Ryan got on track despite drawing a brutal matchup at Carolina last weekend. His day would’ve looked much better if Julio Jones had held on for what would’ve been a wide open 39-yard touchdown. Next up is a Cowboys team that’s allowed 14 passing TDs through eight games and might struggle to control gameflow if “Zeke” is suspended.
Drew Brees continues to play very well for the Saints, but an improved running game and defense continues to lower his ceiling in DFS contests. That could change this week if the Bills open a lead at home and stop the run, which they have done quite easily over four home games this season. Jameis Winston was able to rack up FPs in garbage time in a trip to Buffalo three weeks ago, and Brees is obviously a superior passer.
Despite his horrible road splits, Ben Roethlisberger is worth a look against a Colts team that’s given up the most pass plays of 20-plus yards (44) and most PPG (28.9) in the NFL this season. Big Ben has a new downfield threat in JuJu Smith-Schuster, and it’s possible Pittsburgh reintegrates Martavis Bryant after teaching him a lesson in Week 8.
Cam Newton continued to flash upside with his legs while beating Atlanta, and he draws a much better matchup in Week 10 against a porous Dolphins defense. Miami sells out to stop the run and leaves its young corners exposed on the outside, where Newton can target Devin Funchess, as well as rookie Curtis Samuel, in an encore effort.
Running Backs
Todd Gurley vs. HOU
Lamar Miller @ LAR
Carlos Hyde vs. NYG
Devonta Freeman vs. DAL
Todd Gurley is still a fantastic play and is worth taking in the early rounds where available this week. While Jared Goff is a fade after his monstrous game in Week 9, the fact that Gurley still posted great numbers despite everything going through Goff early is very encouraging. He’s an absolute workhorse with a very high floor.
The Texans should lean on Lamar Miller and their running game much more often with Deshaun Watson done for the year. Miller only managed 91 scoreless yards on 14 touches in a surprising home loss to the Colts last week, but has the potential to bounce back against a Rams team that’s giving up the eighth-most RuYPG (121.6) in the NFL this year.
Carlos Hyde is a great option simply because the Niners are hosting a doormat team in the Giants. New York is giving up the fourth-most RuYPG (125.9) in the NFL this year. Hyde has multi-touchdown upside if San Francisco can finally earn a positive game script.
Devonta Freeman continues to cede work to Tevin Coleman and watched the slimmer back burst in for a TD last week, but he’s historically been much better at home and is worth a late-round pick this Sunday against the Cowboys 30th-ranked run defense.
Wide Receivers
T.Y. Hilton vs. PIT
Demaryius Thomas vs. NE
JuJu Smith-Schuster @ IND
T.Y. Hilton could come crashing back to earth in a tough matchup against the Steelers, but it’s encouraging to note how the Colts used him last week. He moved all over the formation on his way to 175 receiving yards and a TD. Similar movement would allow him to occasionally avoid shutdown CB Joe Haden this Sunday.
Demaryius Thomas had a big day in a blowout loss to the Eagles last week and should remain a favorite target for whichever QB Denver decides to roll with this Sunday night. Emmanuel Sanders (ankle) is banged up and seemed to aggravate his injury on his only catch last Sunday. Facing the Patriots struggling pass defense certainly doesn’t hurt Thomas’ prospects.
No, it wasn’t a flash in the pan for JuJu Smith-Schuster, who became the youngest player in NFL history to top 175 yards in a game two weeks ago. He’s going to see a lot of single coverage with Antonio Brown drawing tons of attention and draws a very appealing matchup against the Colts this week.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski @ DEN
Evan Engram @ SF
Rob Gronkowski may be the only TE worth drafting in contests this weekend, as the rest of the position is very weak: Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz are on their bye weeks. Gronk might see even more work in the middle of the field with Chris Hogan (shoulder) out, and Denver has been quite vulnerable against the TE position.
Evan Engram is operating as the Giants de facto top receiver. He’s drawing a lot of looks from a limited QB in Eli Manning, who would prefer to find his athletic TE rather than force the ball downfield to fourth- and fifth-string receivers.
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