Astros vs. Orioles Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 18, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 17, 2023

The Houston Astros (84-66) and Baltimore Orioles (93-56) square off on Monday at 8:10 PM ET, beginning a three-game series at Minute Maid Park.

The Astros are favored at home (-194) against the Orioles (+161). The contest has an over/under of 8.5.

The insights in the article below reference odds valid as of September 18, 2023 at 9:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Astros vs Orioles Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Astros -194 +161 8.5

Astros Betting Insights

  • This season, the Astros have won 59 out of the 110 games, or 53.6%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • This season Houston has won 17 of its 26 games, or 65.4%, when favored by at least -194 on the moneyline.
  • The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 66% chance of a victory for the Astros.
  • Houston’s games have gone over the total in 78 of its 150 chances.
  • The Astros are 75-75-0 against the spread this season.

Astros Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.8
HR 15
ERA 4.30
K/9 8.3

Orioles Betting Insights

  • The Orioles have come away with 43 wins in the 75 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • Baltimore has a win-loss record of 3-2 when favored by +161 or worse by bookmakers this year.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Orioles have a 38.3% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Baltimore and its opponents have gone over in 78 of its 149 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Orioles are 91-58-0 against the spread in their 149 games that had a posted line this season.

Orioles Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.7
HR 14
ERA 3.86
K/9 7.1

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Astros Probable Pitcher – Justin Verlander

  • Verlander’s team is 11-13-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance was on Wednesday, when he threw seven innings against the Oakland Athletics, giving up five earned runs while allowing eight hits.
  • Verlander has 17 starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • He has five appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 24 chances this season.
  • Verlander’s team is 11-8 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Verlander’s team is 13-11 when he starts this season.
  • In games Verlander has started this season, the teams are 10-12-2 at hitting the over.

Astros Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Bryan Abreu 65 66 90 1.91 24 4
Kendall Graveman 63 63.1 63 3.27 12 8
Héctor Neris 62 60.2 68 1.93 27 2
Phil Maton 62 61.2 69 3.21 8 1
Rafael Montero 62 63.1 73 4.83 10 1

Orioles Probable Pitcher – John Means

  • Means (0-1) pitches first for the Orioles to make his second start of the season.
  • In his last appearance on Tuesday, the left-hander threw five innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, allowing three earned runs while surrendering five hits.
  • The Orioles have not been a moneyline underdog when Means starts this season.
  • His team has lost the only matchup he’s made an appearance in this season.
  • Means’ only start with a total this season went under.

Orioles Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Yeinier Cano 64 68.2 58 1.97 29 6
Cionel Pérez 58 50.1 42 3.22 9 1
Michael Baumann 56 62.1 60 3.75 6 0
Jorge López 55 55 46 6.22 10 3
Danny Coulombe 54 46.2 53 2.31 22 2

Astros Hitting Trends

  • The Astros are 40-13 this season in games when they hit at least two bombs.
  • Houston has put up at least five extra-base hits in 34 games this season, and has gone 27-7 in those outings.
  • The club has totaled eight or more hits in 103 games this season, and is 78-25 in those contests.
  • Houston has a 73-12 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Astros have gone 39-8 in the 47 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Orioles Hitting Trends

  • They have won 42 of the 56 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • Baltimore has won 35 of its 38 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • They have won 70 of the 97 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • Baltimore has won 73 of its 84 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • In 37 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 28-9

Astros vs. Orioles Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Astros (-194)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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