TCU vs. SMU: College Football Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – September 23, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 17, 2023

The TCU Horned Frogs (2-1) and SMU Mustangs (2-1) square off with the Iron Skillet the prize on Saturday, September 23, 2023 at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The Horned Frogs are favored by 6.5 points. The over/under for the contest is 63.5 points.

Want to bet on TCU or SMU in this matchup? Head to DraftKings Sportsbook to place your wager today!

TCU vs. SMU Odds

Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
TCU -6.5 -108 -112 63.5 -110 -110

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Computer Pick

Computer picks for TCU vs SMU
ATS Total Score prediction
TCU (-6.5) Under (63.5) TCU 33 SMU 23

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Team Stat Comparison

Off. Points per Game (Rank) 39.7 (29) 39.3 (30)
Def. Points per Game (Rank) 21.3 (57) 14.0 (22)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank) 6 (100) 3 (34)
Turnovers Forced (Rank) 5 (43) 1 (122)

TCU vs. SMU Betting Insights

TCU Stats and Trends

  • TCU has won one game against the spread this season.
  • The Horned Frogs have covered the spread once when favored by 6.5 points or more this season (in three opportunities).
  • TCU games have gone over the point total once this season.
  • Frogs games have gone over 63.5 points just once this season (in three contests).
  • The average point total in TCU’s outings this year is 62.3, 1.2 fewer points than this game’s over/under.

Recent Head-to-Head Matchups

In the last two matchups between these two teams, SMU and TCU have an even 1-1 record. The Horned Frogs and Mustangs have split those games 1-1 against the spread while both contests went over the point total. TCU and SMU each scored 76 total points over those two head-to-head matchups.

SMU Stats and Trends

  • SMU has won two games against the spread this season.
  • The Mustangs have been an underdog by 6.5 points or more this year once, and failed to cover the spread.
  • SMU games have gone over the point total once this season.
  • The Mustangs have combined with their opponent to score more than 63.5 points only once this season.
  • SMU has a 65.8-point average over/under in their matchups this season, 2.3 more points than this game’s total.

TCU Players to Watch

  • Chandler Morris leads the team with 856 passing yards (285.3 yards per game) and has a 67.9% completion percentage this year (74-of-109) while throwing six touchdowns with three interceptions. He also has 146 rushing yards on 23 carries with two touchdowns, averaging 48.7 yards per game.
  • Emani Bailey has run for a team-leading 357 yards on 56 attempts (119.0 yards per game) while scoring one touchdown.
  • John Paul Richardson has racked up 13 receptions for 147 yards, best on his team. He averages 49.0 receiving yards per game.
  • Warren Thompson has contributed with 143 yards on 10 catches and one touchdown. He averages 47.7 receiving yards per game this year.
  • Jared Wiley has 92 receiving yards on 10 receptions, with one touchdown, averaging 30.7 yards per game.

SMU Players to Watch

  • Preston Stone has passed for 798 yards while completing 62.7% of his throws (64-of-102), with nine touchdowns and two interceptions (266.0 yards per game).
  • LJ Johnson Jr. has churned out a team-best 153 rushing yards (51.0 per game) and one touchdown.
  • So far this year Jaylan Knighton has run for 140 yards on 32 carries (70.0 ypg). Knighton also helps out in the passing game, catching five passes for 33 yards (16.5 ypg).
  • Jake Bailey has hauled in 13 receptions for 136 yards, best on his team. He averages 45.3 receiving yards per game.
  • Jordan Hudson has hauled in five catches for 109 yards (54.5 yards per game) and two touchdowns.
  • Roderick Daniels Jr. has totaled 105 yards on five receptions with one touchdown, averaging 35.0 yards per game.

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