Mets vs. Reds Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 17, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 17, 2023

The Cincinnati Reds (78-72) have a 2-0 series lead and aim to sweep the New York Mets (68-80) on Sunday at Citi Field, at 1:40 PM ET.

The Mets are favored (-135 on the moneyline) when they host the Reds (+114). The matchup has an over/under set at 9 total runs.

The insights in what follows reference odds valid as of September 17, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Mets vs Reds Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Mets -135 +114 9

Mets Betting Insights

  • The Mets have won 49, or 55.1%, of the 89 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • New York is 26-30 this season when entering a game favored by -135 or more on the moneyline.
  • The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 57.4% chance of a victory for the Mets.
  • Games involving New York has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 61 of 149 chances this season.
  • The Mets are 66-83-0 against the spread in their 149 chances this season.

Mets Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 4.3
HR 11
ERA 3.21
K/9 9.1

Reds Betting Insights

  • The Reds have been underdogs in 113 games this season and have come away with the win 56 times (49.6%) in those contests.
  • Cincinnati has a mark of 35-40 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +114 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Reds have a 46.7% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Cincinnati’s games have gone over the total in 72 of its 150 opportunities.
  • The Reds are 88-62-0 against the spread in their 150 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Reds Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 4.5
HR 15
ERA 4.80
K/9 8.5

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Mets Probable Pitcher – Jose Quintana

  • Quintana and his team are 3-7-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The left-hander gave up two earned runs and allowed five hits in five innings pitched against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday.
  • Quintana has pitched five or more innings in 10 straight games and will look to extend that streak.
  • He has one appearance with no earned runs allowed in 10 chances this season.
  • Quintana’s team has won 40% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (2-3).
  • Quintana’s team is 2-8 when he starts this season.
  • In games Quintana has started this season, the teams are 2-8-0 at hitting the over.

Mets Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Adam Ottavino 62 58.2 57 2.91 12 10
Brooks Raley 60 50.1 55 2.86 24 3
Trevor Gott 58 54.1 59 4.31 10 1
Drew Smith 57 52 57 4.50 11 3
Phil Bickford 56 63 70 5.29 4 1

Reds Probable Pitcher – Brandon Williamson

  • Williamson (4-4) takes the mound first for the Reds in his 21st start of the season. He has a 4.47 ERA in 102 2/3 innings pitched, with 91 strikeouts.
  • The lefty’s most recent time out came on Tuesday against the Detroit Tigers, when he threw four innings, surrendering five earned runs while allowing seven hits.
  • Williamson has put up 14 starts this year that he pitched five or more innings.
  • In two of his 20 total appearances this season he has not allowed an earned run.
  • The Reds have been the underdog on the moneyline in 17 of Williamson’s starts this season, and they went 8-9 in those games.
  • Williamson’s team has compiled an 11-9 record over his 20 starts.
  • Williamson has had 20 starts that sportsbooks set a total for this season, and eight of those outings hit the over.

Reds Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Ian Gibaut 66 70.1 66 3.07 22 2
Alexis Diaz 64 64.1 84 2.10 1 37
Buck Farmer 64 71 65 3.93 10 3
Sam Moll 62 56.2 64 3.34 9 1
Lucas Sims 60 56 69 3.38 22 3

Mets Hitting Trends

  • The Mets have hit two or more round-trippers in 53 games this season, and are 32-21 in those contests.
  • New York has gone 21-6 in its 27 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
  • The club is 54-26 in the games this season it has notched at least eight hits.
  • New York is 51-19 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Mets are 18-15 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Reds Hitting Trends

  • They have won 36 of the 50 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • In 39 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 30-9.
  • In 97 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 69-28.
  • In 84 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 70-14.
  • They have a 23-21 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Mets vs. Reds Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Mets (-135)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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