The Cincinnati Reds (78-72) have a 2-0 series lead and aim to sweep the New York Mets (68-80) on Sunday at Citi Field, at 1:40 PM ET.
The Mets are favored (-135 on the moneyline) when they host the Reds (+114). The matchup has an over/under set at 9 total runs.
The insights in what follows reference odds valid as of September 17, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Mets vs Reds Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | -135 | +114 | 9 |
Mets Betting Insights
- The Mets have won 49, or 55.1%, of the 89 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
- New York is 26-30 this season when entering a game favored by -135 or more on the moneyline.
- The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 57.4% chance of a victory for the Mets.
- Games involving New York has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 61 of 149 chances this season.
- The Mets are 66-83-0 against the spread in their 149 chances this season.
Mets Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.3 |
| HR | 11 |
| ERA | 3.21 |
| K/9 | 9.1 |
Reds Betting Insights
- The Reds have been underdogs in 113 games this season and have come away with the win 56 times (49.6%) in those contests.
- Cincinnati has a mark of 35-40 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +114 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Reds have a 46.7% chance of walking away with the win.
- Cincinnati’s games have gone over the total in 72 of its 150 opportunities.
- The Reds are 88-62-0 against the spread in their 150 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Reds Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.5 |
| HR | 15 |
| ERA | 4.80 |
| K/9 | 8.5 |
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Mets Probable Pitcher – Jose Quintana
- Quintana and his team are 3-7-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The left-hander gave up two earned runs and allowed five hits in five innings pitched against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday.
- Quintana has pitched five or more innings in 10 straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- He has one appearance with no earned runs allowed in 10 chances this season.
- Quintana’s team has won 40% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (2-3).
- Quintana’s team is 2-8 when he starts this season.
- In games Quintana has started this season, the teams are 2-8-0 at hitting the over.
Mets Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ottavino | 62 | 58.2 | 57 | 2.91 | 12 | 10 |
| Brooks Raley | 60 | 50.1 | 55 | 2.86 | 24 | 3 |
| Trevor Gott | 58 | 54.1 | 59 | 4.31 | 10 | 1 |
| Drew Smith | 57 | 52 | 57 | 4.50 | 11 | 3 |
| Phil Bickford | 56 | 63 | 70 | 5.29 | 4 | 1 |
Reds Probable Pitcher – Brandon Williamson
- Williamson (4-4) takes the mound first for the Reds in his 21st start of the season. He has a 4.47 ERA in 102 2/3 innings pitched, with 91 strikeouts.
- The lefty’s most recent time out came on Tuesday against the Detroit Tigers, when he threw four innings, surrendering five earned runs while allowing seven hits.
- Williamson has put up 14 starts this year that he pitched five or more innings.
- In two of his 20 total appearances this season he has not allowed an earned run.
- The Reds have been the underdog on the moneyline in 17 of Williamson’s starts this season, and they went 8-9 in those games.
- Williamson’s team has compiled an 11-9 record over his 20 starts.
- Williamson has had 20 starts that sportsbooks set a total for this season, and eight of those outings hit the over.
Reds Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Gibaut | 66 | 70.1 | 66 | 3.07 | 22 | 2 |
| Alexis Diaz | 64 | 64.1 | 84 | 2.10 | 1 | 37 |
| Buck Farmer | 64 | 71 | 65 | 3.93 | 10 | 3 |
| Sam Moll | 62 | 56.2 | 64 | 3.34 | 9 | 1 |
| Lucas Sims | 60 | 56 | 69 | 3.38 | 22 | 3 |
Mets Hitting Trends
- The Mets have hit two or more round-trippers in 53 games this season, and are 32-21 in those contests.
- New York has gone 21-6 in its 27 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
- The club is 54-26 in the games this season it has notched at least eight hits.
- New York is 51-19 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Mets are 18-15 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Reds Hitting Trends
- They have won 36 of the 50 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- In 39 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 30-9.
- In 97 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 69-28.
- In 84 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 70-14.
- They have a 23-21 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Mets vs. Reds Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Mets (-135)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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