Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 17, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 16, 2023

The Boston Red Sox (74-75) take a three-game losing streak into a home matchup versus the Toronto Blue Jays (82-67), at 1:37 PM ET on Sunday.

The Red Sox are an underdog away (+123) at the Blue Jays (-146). The matchup has an over/under of 8 total runs.

The betting trends in the article below use the latest odds as of September 17, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Blue Jays -146 +123 8

Blue Jays Betting Insights

  • The Blue Jays have been favorites in 113 games this season and won 62 (54.9%) of those contests.
  • Toronto has a record of 35-25 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -146 on the moneyline.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Blue Jays have a 59.3% chance to win.
  • Toronto and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 64 of 149 opportunities.
  • The Blue Jays are 68-81-0 ATS in their 149 games with a spread this season.

Blue Jays Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 3.3
HR 9
ERA 4.74
K/9 9.0

Red Sox Betting Insights

  • The Red Sox have been victorious in 35, or 46.1%, of the 76 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • Boston has a win-loss record of 18-10 when favored by +123 or worse by bookmakers this year.
  • The Red Sox have an implied victory probability of 44.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Boston and its opponents have hit the over in 79 of its 149 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Red Sox are 72-77-0 against the spread in their 149 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 2-8
Runs Per Game 3.8
HR 9
ERA 4.75
K/9 10.1

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Blue Jays Probable Pitcher – Hyun-Jin Ryu

  • Ryu and his team have a record of 5-3-0 against the spread when he starts.
  • The left-hander’s last appearance was on Tuesday, when he threw six innings against the Texas Rangers, giving up three earned runs while allowing five hits.
  • Ryu has six starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • He has made eight appearances and finished three of them without allowing an earned run.
  • When Ryu starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 5-2.
  • Ryu’s team has a 5-3 record in his starts this season.
  • In games Ryu has started this season, the teams are 6-2-0 at hitting the over.

Blue Jays Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Tim Mayza 66 50.2 49 1.24 22 1
Yimi Garcia 65 59.1 71 4.25 16 3
Erik Swanson 62 60.2 68 2.97 28 4
Jordan Hicks 59 59.2 74 3.32 10 12
Jordan Romano 54 55 68 2.45 2 35

Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Nick Pivetta

  • Pivetta (9-9) is looking for his 10th victory when he gets the starting nod for the Red Sox in his 14th start of the season. He has a 4.56 ERA in 122 1/3 innings pitched, with 160 strikeouts.
  • The righty’s last time out was on Tuesday against the New York Yankees, when he went 5 1/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing four hits.
  • Pivetta has pitched five or more innings in a game 13 times this season heading into this matchup.
  • He has held his opponents without an earned run in 13 of his 35 appearances this season.
  • The Red Sox have a 4-5 record in Pivetta’s nine starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Pivetta’s team has compiled a 6-7 record in his 13 starts.
  • Pivetta has had 13 starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in five of those games.

Red Sox Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Chris Martin 53 49.1 44 1.09 23 1
Josh Winckowski 53 77 71 2.92 19 3
Brennan Bernardino 42 46.1 54 3.50 4 0
John Schreiber 39 42 47 3.86 10 1
Mauricio Llovera 25 30 26 4.20 0 0

Blue Jays Hitting Trends

  • The Blue Jays are 31-14 this season in games when they hit at least two homers.
  • Toronto has racked up five or more extra-base hits in 31 games this season, and has gone 23-8 in those outings.
  • The team has put up eight or more hits 107 times this season, and has a 72-35 record in those games.
  • Toronto is 59-15 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
  • The Blue Jays have drawn at least five walks in 43 games this season, and are 30-13 in those contests.

Red Sox Hitting Trends

  • They are 33-14 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • Boston has gone 30-12 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have a record of 61-41 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • In 77 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 62-15.
  • They have a 17-14 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Blue Jays (-146)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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