DraftKings.com NFL DFS Week 7 Stack Picks for Cash and GPP Lineups
Week 7 of NFL DFS is upon us, and everyone is looking to cash in on the big money daily fantasy football contests at DraftKings. Every week, we’ll take a look at the top stacks for players over at DraftKings, finding optimal combinations based on matchup, usage, and recent performance, among other noteworthy metrics. And to keep up with all things PlayPicks, follow us on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
As with any DFS sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player, stack, or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, gameflow, and more. This is important when constructing a roster. And if you’re looking for a new way to play DFS, be sure and give DRAFT a try.
Now, let’s dive into our Week 7 stacks.
Week 7 DraftKings.com NFL DFS Top Stacks
Brett Hundley ($5.1K), Davante Adams ($5.8K), Jordy Nelson ($6.8K) vs. NO – GPP
I’m coming around on Brett Hundley this week, as he gets an exploitable New Orleans defense; they’re 15th in DVOA this year. While I don’t think the matchup makes this play risky (gameflow should benefit Hundley, and the Saints defense isn’t one to avoid), any stack with an Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay squad is going to be very risky, especially with first-time starter at the helm.
But Hundley brings some upside. While he did throw three picks last week against a tough Minnesota Vikings defense, and he only managed 7.6 points, he actually can do damage with his legs. In college, he threw for 75 touchdowns and rushed for 30, which is a notable ratio. I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees a red-zone rush or two, nor would I be surprised to see him pick up incremental points on the ground.
But let’s get back to gameflow because that’s the real reason this stack is in play. The Saints are above average in pace this season, but more importantly, they can score. Averaging 29 points per game, the Saints are fourth in the league in that category. The Packers’ defense is average in terms of DVOA, and the Saints have an implied total of 26.8 points.
I expect them to hit that figure, which will mean a lot of throwing from Hundley. The Saints are 19th against WR1 and WR2 (DVOA), but they’re fifth against the TE. Last week, Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson were each targeted 10 times. I expect them to combine for more than 20 targets this week, meaning there are enough points to go around if Hundley can avoid turning the ball over. Stick to tournaments, but consider this stack as a way to differentiate your line. Plenty will be on Hundley, but very few will be stacking the Packers.
Chris Ivory ($4.8K), Jacksonville D/ST ($3.7K) @ IND – GPP/Cash (if Fournette sits)
This play is a little simpler — either Leonard Fournette plays or he doesn’t. He sat out practice Wednesday, and the Jags aren’t giving much info on the likelihood of his availability Sunday. But it feels like that questionable tag is closer to doubtful given a missed practice and no real clarification on his status.
If, and only if, Fournette sits can you stack Chris Ivory and the Jacksonville defense in Cash. Ivory has a limited, but consistent role in this offense already (at least eight touches each game this season), and he showed some flash last week against the Los Angeles Rams, racking up 22.7 DK points thanks to 10 targets (just two carries).
Meanwhile, Ivory’s upcoming opponent, the Indianapolis Colts, rank 31st in DVOA, while the Jacksonville Jaguars defense tops the league in that metric. This game should consist of a ton of work out of the Jacksonville backfield. If Fournette sits, roster Ivory and the Jags D/ST with confidence. The upside, plus savings, will allow for roster flexibility without punting.
Kyle Rudolph ($3.8K), Vikings D/ST ($3.3K) vs. BAL – Cash/GPP
The Baltimore Ravens defense is very good, fifth overall in DVOA. The one glaring weakness is they rank dead last in DVOA against tight ends. Now, with an O/U of 40, I don’t think there is a ton of upside in playing most of the Vikings offense. I just don’t see how, without Dalvin Cook and Sam Bradford, this offense finds a way to get much going.
That said, the Vikings are -5.5 and should have a very healthy time of possession (thanks to the horrible Baltimore offense). While I fully expect the Ravens’ defensive backs to shut down the Vikings’ wideouts (especially if Stefon Diggs remains out), and I also just don’t think the Vikings’ run game is good. There’s one clear path of least resistance, and that’s Kyle Rudolph, who garnered nine targets in consecutive weeks. I expect him to be the lone bright spot in the offense, while the Vikings defense owns the spotlight with a dominant performance against whatever you want to call that Joe Flacco-led offense in Baltimore.
Matt Ryan ($7.5K), Julio Jones ($8.5K), Tevin Coleman ($4.8K) @ NE – GPP/Cash
I had to include an alternative slate stack. After all, a good amount of the elite options (at least at quarterback) aren’t on the Milly Maker slate. I’m not going to go into a ton of detail: the over/under for this game is 55. Both teams are going to score. I know the Pats are known for taking away the opposing team’s best weapon, but does anything about the 2017 Pats defense make you think they can stop Julio Jones, Matt Ryan, or Tevin Coleman? Josh McCown just threw for 354 yards and two scores against New England last week. The Pats are 28th in DVOA to pass-catching running backs. The Falcons will likely be throwing much more than running.
There are plenty of reasons to get exposure to the Falcons’ top pass-catching weapons, as well as the one throwing those passes. The Falcons and Patriots should combine for a massive total. I think these three will be the key pieces come Sunday night.
Tom Brady ($8.0K), Dion Lewis ($4.7K), Rob Gronkowski ($7.3K) vs. ATL – GPP
Since I’m following the last stack up with another from Sunday Night Football, I’m making it a contrarian stack of sorts. Of course, everyone will be on Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, but with a 55-point over/under, there are plenty of scores to go around.
Last week, the Patriots’ offense had the most success scoring through Rob Gronkowski and Dion Lewis. Lewis led the team in rushing yards and scored one of three touchdowns. Brady connected with “Gronk” on the other two.
The Patriots appear, based on last week, to be working Lewis back into this system in earnest. In the last three games, Lewis has carried the ball four, seven, and 11 times. I expect him to wind up with double-digit carries, plus some work in the passing game. And then Brady and “Gronk” will just do what they always do, especially since they’re facing the 27th ranked defense in DVOA.
Cam Newton ($7.0K), Kelvin Benjamin ($6.9K) @ CHI – GPP
The weather makes me a bit nervous, as it’s expected to storm in Chicago this Sunday. I’ve already said I’m on Cam Newton as he has returned to form with three consecutive 20+ DK-point performances. This week, he gets a Bears defense that isn’t terrible overall (16th DVOA) but ranks 29th in DVOA vs. WR1.
Kelvin Benjamin hasn’t scored less than 15.8 points in any of his past three games and boasts tremendous upside whenever healthy. Keep an eye on the weather, as this is GPP-only if the outlook is bleak. And keep an eye on Benjamin’s knee injury; he’s questionable heading into Thursday.
Marcus Mariota ($6.9K), Delanie Walker ($5.8K) @ CLE – GPP
Marcus Mariota looked OK in the pocket in Week 6, which is good since he could barely move at all. This week, I expect he’ll still be limited to the pocket. Fortunately, he faces a Cleveland Browns team last in DVOA vs. the pass and second-to-last in DVOA vs. TE.
That leads us directly to Mariota and Delanie Walker, who have the best matchups in a game in which the Titans are favored and have an implied total of 26. Obviously, Mariota won’t be operating at 100 percent, which makes him somewhat risky for Cash. But couple that with Walker’s high price point, and I think you’ll have exposure to two great plays at relatively low ownership, facing a terrible Cleveland defense.
C.J. Anderson ($7.2K), Demaryius Thomas ($5.8K) @ LAC – GPP/Cash
I mentioned Demaryius Thomas yesterday in my top plays piece, as I think he’ll benefit the most from Emmanuel Sanders’ absence. But there’s more value to be derived from the Denver Broncos’ battered receiving core.
While I think Sanders’ injury downgrades Trevor Siemian, and the Chargers are 17th in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, Siemian looked solid against them in Week 1, racking up 23.7 fantasy points. I don’t think he’ll fare as well on the road, but I do expect him to focus a high percentage of targets to Thomas, who is far and away the best Broncos wideout this week. His 14 targets last week should help back that up.
With Thomas getting the most looks through the air for the Broncos, I don’t think the pass will be the primary focus of their offensive gameplan. Instead, I think they’ll look to run on a Chargers defense that ranks 28th against the rush. This should mean more work from C.J. Anderson, who will be slimly owned after an abysmal performance last week (mostly thanks to gameflow).
With Thomas and Anderson, you’ll have exposure to the Broncos’ two highest-volume offensive weapons. I think they could very realistically combine for 30+ touches, and I’m interested in that kind of upside in my GPP lineups.
Other Stacks to Consider:
Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz
Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST
Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott
Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams D/ST
Russell Wilson, Jimmy Graham
