Week 7 Draft.com NFL DFS Lineup Picks & Strategy
Week 7 of NFL DFS is upon us, and everyone is looking to cash in on the big money at DRAFT. Every week, we’ll bring you our top DFS NFL picks for each position and recommend them as safer plays for H2H and smaller leagues and/or 6-10 team league plays. To keep up with all things PlayPicks, follow us on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
H2H and Three-Team draft choices generally come with less risk and a more stable floor, while the best 10-team plays equal lots of risk and upside. Taking a chance on players with high ceilings and low floors is a good way to separate from the field.
Let’s talk a little more strategy. As with any DFS sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, game flow, or other factors. This is important when drafting a roster.
Best Week 7 NFL DFS DRAFT.com H2H and Three-Team Picks
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady vs. ATL
Matt Ryan @ NE
Dak Prescott @ SF
Even though he’s had a couple down weeks from a statistical standpoint, Tom Brady is still the king, especially with Aaron Rodgers sadly set to miss the rest of the season. Facing the same Falcons defense he carved up in the second half of Super Bowl 51, Brady’s porous defense ensures he’ll have to throw down the stretch in this game.
For the same reason, Matt Ryan is worth an early-round draft pick in small leagues. The Patriots have allowed all six QBs they’ve faced this year to throw for 300-plus yards, including Josh McCown (who failed to top 200 yards in three of five appearances prior to facing the Pats), so they’re a great “get-right” matchup for Ryan and the struggling Falcons.
Dak Prescott has been an incredibly safe play all year and remains so ahead of a great Week 7 matchup. He’ll face a 49ers team ranked 26th in DVOA pass defense and couldn’t keep borderline dad-runner Kirk Cousins in the pocket last Sunday. Prescott has piled up 126 rushing yards and two scores on the ground this year and shredded better defenses than San Francisco’s over the past three weeks.
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell vs. CIN
Leonard Fournette @ IND
Adrian Peterson @ LAR
Jordan Howard vs. CAR
If not for his scary-looking ankle injury last week, Leonard Fournette would deservedly be the top overall choice this week in most drafts. He’s still worth taking in the first round in any format given the plus matchup against a Colts team ranked 31st in DVOA defense. They were gashed once again for 171 yards and two touchdowns on Monday night.
His usage has been extremely consistent, but still pales next to Le’Veon Bell, who has handled a ridiculous 104 touches over his last three appearances. Bell is completely matchup-proof at this point. Even though he plays a physical Bengals team that’s been good against the run, the entire Steelers offense is elevated at home. They should put him in position to score while piling up his usual 100-plus YFS.
Jordan Howard’s eruption against Baltimore might have been a bit flukey. That entire game was flukey, first of all, but if Luke Kuechly (concussion) is ruled out ahead of a Week 7 matchup against the Bears, Howard’s prospects will spike dramatically.
Adrian Peterson dominated against the Bucs, and it wasn’t a fluke. The 32-year-old still has plenty left in the tank and Saints HC Sean Payton simply refused to play toward his strengths. Bruce Arians is not as proud and should continue to ride AP in a fantastic matchup against the Rams. They’ve given up the most rushing TDs (eight) and fourth-most RuYPG (139.5) in the NFL this season.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown vs. CIN
Julio Jones @ NE
Dez Bryant @ SF
Mike Evans @ BUF
Jarvis Landry vs. NYJ
Like Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown’s usage is so secure and so consistently gargantuan that he justifies an early pick regardless of matchup. He just burned the previously undefeated Chiefs for a game-winning touchdown and tortured the Bengals for two seasons before getting held in check in two meetings with Cincy last year.
Dez Bryant makes for a great pairing with Prescott if you can manage it. Capable number one receivers have gouged the Niners, and Dez is due for a big game.
Mike Evans is a ticking time bomb, and the Bucs hope his eruption comes in the form of a multi-touchdown game rather than a tantrum on the sideline. After drawing brutal matchups against Janoris Jenkins and Patrick Peterson and fizzling on TNF due to Jameis Winston’s struggles, he gets a Bills secondary lacking a top cornerback. He’s a big enough name to require an early draft pick but might come at a surprising discount due to his recent struggles.
With Jarvis Landry, you can get a very safe play with blowup potential if DeVante Parker (ankle) remains inactive or limited in Week 7. The Jets’ defense, while improved at the back end, is extremely vulnerable in the slot, and Landry has averaged six catches per game over seven career meetings with Gang Green.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski vs. ATL
Simply head and shoulders above the rest of the tight ends in the league, Rob Gronkowski is worth an early-round pick against the Falcons. Atlanta’s giving up the sixth-most receiving YPG (70.4) to opposing TEs despite the fact that Charles Clay is the best oversized target they’ve faced through five games. Tom Brady is peppering Gronk with targets in the red zone, and he’s virtually unstoppable when he draws single coverage.
Best Week 7 DFS NFL 6- to 10-Team League Picks
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees @ GB
Marcus Mariota @ CLE
Cam Newton @ CHI
Drew Brees may be undervalued this week because his defense carried the day in a wild 52-38 win over the Lions last Sunday. Historically, he’s been far worse outdoors, but he shredded an excellent Panthers defense and threw for 291 yards against the capable Vikings secondary in his two road appearances this season.
You can’t beat the matchup for Marcus Mariota against a Browns team that’s been a doormat all season. The last 4 quarterbacks to face Cleveland have thrown for 2 or more TDs and Mariota showed that he’s healthy enough to pick apart a bad defense by going for 300-plus yards in a 29-22 win over the Colts on MNF.
Even when he plays poorly in actual football terms, Cam Newton can be a fantasy monster. His latest exhibit is a loss to Philadelphia in which he completed 28-of-52 passes with three interceptions, but cracked 23 FPs for a third consecutive game by rushing for 71 yards and a TD (and erroneously getting another rushing TD taken away despite crossing the plane in true Superman fashion). The Bears’ undersized corners will be hard-pressed to contain 6’5 monsters Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess on the outside.
Running Backs
LeSean McCoy vs. TB
Todd Gurley vs. ARI
Ezekiel Elliott @ SF
Devonta Freeman @ NE
Jerick McKinnon @ BAL
Todd Gurley remains a poor man’s Leonard Fournette, yet he’s fully healthy and that may help him outscore the likely Rookie of the Year in the Rams’ tough matchup at home against Arizona.
LeSean McCoy is a better bet for a big game. The Bills host a Bucs defense that was just eviscerated by a Cardinals offensive line that came into Week 6 ranked dead last in run blocking. “Shady” had a bye week to rest up, and he’s been handling a massive workload under new HC Sean McDermott.
Ezekiel Elliott was once again granted an injunction on his suspension and will be allowed to suit up for a juicy Week 7 matchup against the 49ers. San Francisco’s been vulnerable on the ground despite facing some weak competition this year, ranking 22nd in scheduled-adjusted DVOA run defense, so “Zeke” should continue to eat.
Like most Falcons, Devonta Freeman has great bounce-back potential against a Patriots defense among the worst in the league. Jerick McKinnon, meanwhile, proved that his Week 5 breakout was no fluke by dropping 99 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Packers last Sunday. He faces a Ravens team that surprisingly ranks dead last in non-adjusted DVOA defense after getting run over by Jordan Howard and the Bears last week.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones @ NE
Michael Thomas @ GB
Chris Hogan vs. ATL
Brandin Cooks vs. ATL
Julio Jones has somehow failed to find the end zone over five games this year. Like his quarterback, he draws a perfect get-right matchup in the Patriots this Sunday. New England has allowed the most passing TDs (14) and passing YPG (324.8) this season, and Malcolm Butler is not playing nearly well enough to handle Jones in single coverage.
Michael Thomas is in a prime bounce-back spot after getting locked down by the Lions elite secondary and suffering from wacky gameflow in last week’s win. The Packers will look to rally around a backup QB at home in Week 7, but their secondary is still deficient and ranks 26th in DVOA pass defense against opposing top WRs.
It’s something of a crapshoot predicting which Patriots receiver will be schemed open this week, but either Brandin Cooks or Chris Hogan will make plays against Falcons whipping boy Robert Alford while the other draws coverage from elite CB Desmond Trufant. Cooks has been moving all over the formation and is clearly the better bet for production, whereas Hogan could likely be selected with one of your final picks in a draft after last week’s dud.
Tight Ends
Cameron Brate @ BUF
Delanie Walker @ CLE
Austin Seferian-Jenkins @ MIA
Cameron Brate has quietly enough caught a touchdown in four consecutive games and in 10 of his last 14 games dating back to last October. He has incredible hands and uses his 6’6 frame to seal defenders in the red zone, while he’s demonstrated a rapport with both backup Ryan Fitzpatrick and starter Jameis Winston, who is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Delanie Walker is always a reliable pick, and he has tons of upside this week against a Browns team ranked 31st in DVOA pass defense and 30th against the TE position. Marcus Mariota’s limited mobility increases the likelihood of targets coming Walker’s way, and he was even involved as a rusher in Week 6.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins is one more red zone weapon to consider given his massive frame. The Dolphins have given up the seventh-most FPPG to opposing TEs this season, and ASJ is the one reliable option in the Jets otherwise unpredictable passing attack.
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