Joe Burrow: NFL Player Prop Bets And Picks For Week 1 Bengals Vs Browns – September 10, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 5, 2023

Joe Burrow and his Cincinnati Bengals teammates face the Cleveland Browns in a Week 1 NFL matchup at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday.

Joe Burrow Player Props vs the Browns

Pass Yds Over/Under Pass Yds Over Payout Pass TDs Over/Under Pass TDs Over Payout Rush Yds Over/Under Rush Yds Over Payout Anytime TD Odds
268.5 +105 1.5 0 9.5 0 +295

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2022 Betting Outcomes

Passing Rushing
Games Over Yards Prop 5 6
Games w/1+ TDs 16 5
Games w/2+ TDs 11 0

Joe Burrow’s Passing Trends

  • Last year Burrow racked up 4,475 passing yards (279.7 per game) while going 414-for-606 (68.3% completion percentage) and throwing for 35 touchdowns with 12 interceptions.
  • Burrow was 10th in the NFL with 7.4 yards per pass attempt last year (4,475 total yards passing).
  • Burrow ranked second in the NFL last season with 35 touchdowns through the air, and fifth with 4,475 yards.

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Burrow’s Rushing Trends

  • Burrow tacked on 257 rushing yards on 75 carries with five touchdowns, averaging 16.1 yards per game.
  • He racked up 3.4 yards per carry (257 yards on 75 attempts) last season.

This Week’s Predictions

Burrow (2022) League AVG (2022) vs Browns (2022) Prediction
268.5+ Passing Yards 56.2% 28.3% 17.6% 43.1%
1+ Passing TDs 100% 77.7% 64.7% 88.4%
2+ Passing TDs 68.8% 40.5% 35.3% 56.9%
9.5+ Rushing Yards 50% 98.6% 96.6% 67.7%
1+ Rushing TDs 31.2% 35.1% 48.3% 36%
2+ Rushing TDs 0% 6.4% 6.9% 2.5%

The “Prediction” column gives our estimate of how likely the player is to meet or exceed the listed total for the stat in this week’s game. For example, that means if the prediction is greater than 55% on a prop that is listed with -110 odds (an implied probability of just over 50%), it would be a recommended pick.

The “league average” and “versus opposing team” percentages show how often a player went over the stat total (while meeting the standard NFL qualifying participation threshold) compared to the total number of qualified players across the league in that stat category (passing, rushing or receiving).

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