Week 5 DRAFT.com DFS NFL H2H and 10-Team League Plays
Week 5 NFL is upon us and everyone is looking to cash in on the big money at DRAFT. Every week, we’ll bring you our top DFS NFL picks for each position, and recommend them as safer plays for H2H and smaller leagues and/or 6-10 team league plays. And to keep up with all things PlayPicks, follow us on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
H2H and 3-Team Draft choices generally come with less risk and a more stable floor, while the best 10-team plays can come with tons of risk and upside. Taking a chance on players with high ceilings and low floors is a good way to separate from the field.
As with any DFS sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than they are in real life due to matchup, price, game flow, etc. This is important when drafting a roster.
In DFS NFL, predicting game flow can be vital towards success. Teams that are heavily favored and come through with a comfortable win will be far more likely to lean on their running game, while two teams with poor defenses and high-powered offenses could pay off by getting into a shootout. Later in the season, especially, weather will play a key factor in NFL games, so make sure to check the forecast for each Sunday.
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Week 5 DFS NFL H2H and 3-Team Picks on DRAFT
QBs – Aaron Rodgers @ DAL; Dak Prescott vs. GB
You don’t necessarily have to blow an early-round pick on Rodgers because the difference between QBs final output is usually rather close. However, this is a smaller slate with only 11 games on the docket this Sunday and there are few truly safe options at this important position other than Prescott in the same game.
The second-year Cowboys QB tossed 6 TDs over 2 meetings with the Packers between the regular season and postseason last year and is off to a great start while handling a heavier workload this year, as defenses are really keying on Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys running game. With a 52.5-point Over/Under, the contest in Jerry World has the highest point total of any game on Sunday and both QBs have been incredibly consistent while also flashing upside.
RBs – LeVeon Bell vs. JAX; Ezekiel Elliott vs. GB; Todd Gurley vs. SEA; Kareem Hunt @ HOU; Bilal Powell @ CLE; Christian McCaffrey @ DET; Aaron Jones @ DAL
Bell should be the top pick in drafts for good reason after he totaled a ridiculous 186 YFS on 39 touches in a comfortable win over Baltimore. Now he faces a Jags team that ranks dead last in DVOA run defense and should close things out for a Steelers offense that’s elite at home.
Zeke Elliott is in a similar situation at home against a Packers defense that’s been reeling with difference-making NT Mike Daniels injured. Green Bay ranks 22nd in DVOA run defense this year and obviously the Cowboys offensive line will open things up for Elliott throughout this game as they look to keep the ball away from Rodgers and the Packers.
Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt appear to be riskier plays in respectively tough matchups, but volume should carry them through. The Seahawks have actually been gashed by the run, coughing up the sixth-most RuYPG (134) at a 5.0 YPC clip this year, while the Chiefs offense is versatile enough to get Hunt into space and away from J.J. Watt to gain some chunk yardage this week.
In the later rounds, Powell is worth snatching up in the hopes that he carries the load with Matt Forte (toe) questionable once again. Christian McCaffrey is a great bet to rack up catches from a limited QB with the Lions DBs holding the Panthers receivers in check and Aaron Jones should see a big workload if/when Ty Montgomery (ribs) is ruled out this Sunday.
WRs – Jordy Nelson @ DAL; Keenan Allen @ NYG; T.Y. Hilton vs. SF; Golden Tate vs. CAR; Pierre Garcon @ IND; Randall Cobb @ DAL; Jarvis Landry vs. TEN
Nelson and Cobb are clearly both elite options against a Cowboys secondary that’s been seriously weakened over the offseason. Allen is the go-to-guy for a QB that can’t usually get the ball down the field and his prowess in the slot should allow him to avoid Giants shutdown CB Janoris Jenkins.
TY Hilton and Golden Tate have similar plus draws against big secondaries that tend to struggle more against quick, shifty WRs. Danny Amendola burned the Panthers in a key spot last week and Tate is significantly quicker as the Lions top WR.
Perhaps you can grab Jarvis Landry late in drafts because of the Dolphins overall struggles, but he should roast a Titans secondary that’s ranked 29th in DVOA pass defense against the opposition’s No. 2 target, which is usually a slot man such as Landry.
Pierre Garcon and any player in the 49ers offense will come with some risk, but he could see a ton of targets against his old team with Marquise Goodwin (questionable), and the Colts defense has been extremely vulnerable down the field.
Best Week 5 DFS NFL 6 to 10-team League Picks on DRAFT
QBs – Russell Wilson @ LAR; Ben Roethlisberger vs. JAX; Eli Manning vs. LAC
Wilson and Roethlisberger both have immense upside and Big Ben will probably be available later in drafts because he’s had a very modest start to the 2017-18 season. Wilson’s moving around now that he’s healthy again and he should carry the Seahawks offense in a potential shootout against the suddenly high-scoring Rams.
Roethlisberger has been far, far better at home and faces a struggling Jags team at Heinz Field that just lost to the lowly Jets. His public feud with top WR Antonio Brown makes both players a stack to target where possible.
You might be able to snatch Eli in the last round of your draft and he could surprise by putting up big numbers and leading the Giants to their first win of the season. The G-Men have been knocking on the door and putting up plenty of points with OBJ back in the fold and they have very little running game of which to speak.
RBs – Leonard Fournette @ PIT; DeMarco Murray @ MIA; Isaiah Crowell vs. NYJ; Frank Gore vs. SF; Andre Ellington @ PHI; Wayne Gallman vs. LAC
Fournette has an extremely secure workload regardless of game flow and might get overlooked in early rounds because he’s questionable with an ankle injury, but he should be ready to carry the ball 20-plus times in a tough spot on the road.
Murray is one of the more intriguing plays against a Dolphins run defense that’s simply been awful lately, while Isaiah Crowell could benefit from positive game script with the Browns hosting the lowly Jets.
Frank Gore is on narrative street in a matchup against the franchise that he spent over 10 years with and it doesn’t hurt that the 49ers gave up a league-worst 25 rushing TDs last year.
There are several intriguing RBs to take a chance on with late-round picks including all 4 Seahawks backs (Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls, J.D. McKissic, C.J. Prosise – in that order), but Andre Ellington seems like the safest bet as of right now. The Cardinals should look to get him on the edge against an Eagles defense that’s stout up the middle and Chris Johnson isn’t much of a threat.
Finally, Wayne Gallman has a chance to run away with the Giants backfield job and will be worth a higher pick if Paul Perkins (ribs) and/or Orleans Darkwa (back) is ruled out.
WRs – Odell Beckham Jr. vs. LAC; Antonio Brown vs. JAX; Dez Bryant vs. GB; Larry Fitzgerald @ PHI; DeVante Parker vs. TEN; Tyler Lockett @ LAR; Donte Moncrief vs. SF
Beckham is an injury risk and a mentally volatile player who could get off his game while battling with Chargers top CB Casey Heyward, but he can always pay off with huge output as well. Brown is in a similar position against Jags breakout star Jalen Ramsey, and he’s been in the news for the wrong reasons this week, but Big Ben could grease the squeaky wheel by throwing his dynamic wideout the ball a ton.
Dez Bryant has great splits against the Packers and could thrive in a potential shootout. Larry Fitzgerald has been boom-bust depending on how the opposing defense handles covering him but could take advantage of a plus matchup against the Eagles diminutive corners, while DeVante Parker also faces a weak secondary in the Titans.
For late round picks, consider Tyler Lockett – who is seeing a bigger role with Doug Baldwin (groin) hobbled – and Donte Moncrief as a contrarian option to the more popular pick of T.Y. Hilton.
TEs –Zach Ertz vs. ARI; Travis Kelce @ HOU; Evan Engram vs. LAC; Delanie Walker @ MIA; Martellus Bennett @ DAL; Jared Cook vs. BAL
We don’t need to take tight ends in our H2H or 3-man games on Draft, but it’s a great way to be contrarian in a bigger league. While Ertz is clearly the top option at TE for cash games so far this season, he might not be worth a very early round pick this week. Kelce is definitely worth waiting on as he faces an elite Texans defense, but again, Andy Reid’s creativity should get the versatile weapon open for some chunk yardage plays and possibly a TD or two.
Evan Engram is the safe play to target late in drafts against a Chargers team that ranks 30th in DVOA pass defense against opposing TEs so far this season. The rookie has caught at least 4 balls in all 4 NFL appearances thus far and will wind up seeing a heavy workload if the Chargers double Odell Beckham Jr., or if the wild WR winds up leaving the game with one of his several injuries.
Delanie Walker and Jared Cook could both be contrarian picks if each of their starting QBs are ruled out. We know Derek Carr (back) won’t start this week and that leaves E.J. Manuel as a limited QB for Oakland, so the game plan might call for more high-percentage throws to the tight end.
If Matt Cassell is starting for Tennessee, all skill players will be downgraded and while he doesn’t have the same rapport with Walker as Marcus Mariota (hamstring), Cassell still has a decent arm and Walker’s produced with weaker QBs during his tenure in San Francisco.
The best late-round TE selection is likely Bennett, as he’s been knocking on the door in terms of making a big play for the Packers and draws a juicy matchup against the Cowboys Cover 2-based defense.
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