Week 5 DraftKings.com DFS NFL Stacks and Lineup Plays
WEEK 6 DRAFTKINGS STACK ARTICLE HERE
Week 5 NFL is upon us and everyone is looking to cash in on the big money DFS NFL contests at DraftKings. Every week, we’ll take a look at the top stacks for players over at DraftKings, finding optimal combinations based on matchup, usage, and recent performance, among other noteworthy metrics. And to keep up with all things PlayPicks, follow us on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
As with any DFS sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player, stack, or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than they are in real life due to matchup, price, game flow, etc. This is important when constructing a roster. And if you’re looking for new ways to play DFS, be sure and give BOOM Fantasy and DRAFT a try!
Now let’s dive in to our week 5 stacks, including two from Thursday’s extremely appealing NE-TB matchup.
Week 5 DraftKings.com DFS NFL Top Stacks
Jameis Winston ($6.0K), Mike Evans ($7.9K), Cameron Brate ($3.7K) vs. NE – Cash/GPP
The New England Patriots are dead last against quarterbacks on DraftKings and second to last against wide receivers. If you’re playing the alternative slates, look no further for a stack than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Bucs do get Doug Martin back this week, but given it’s his season debut, he’ll likely not be as impactful as some may fear given the game gameflow. And the Pats aren’t quite as bad against the run as they are the pass.
Winston, meanwhile, will be asked to do a lot Thursday, as his team is the underdog in a matchup expected to have plenty of scoring (55.5 point O/U). And the leading benefactor of that pass-heavy approach should be Mike Evans, far and away Tampa’s best offensive threat. The Pats are fourth worse in the league in DVOA vs. WR1, and Evans is averaging almost 18 DK ppg, more than six receptions per game, and nearly 11 targets per game. I expect him to top all those averages this week.
But there’s almost certainly even more offense to go around for the Bucs, but finding a third Tampa player isn’t as easy as landing on Winston and Evans. Instead, we’re basically faced with the choice between Adam Humphries, Desean Jackson, and Cameron Brate. I like any of the three to round out your stack.
That said, given you’ll be doing everything you can to get Le’Veon Bell into your lineup, Humphries and Brate are the two I’m most interested, specifically the latter. Brate is tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns (with Evans), is converting 77% of his targets, and has earned a first down on 70% of his receptions. He’s reliable, and facing a NE defense that is allowing the second most DK points to Tight Ends.
With Winston, Brate, and Evans, you’ll get heavy exposure to a very high-scoring game, while saving enough to get Le’Veon Bell on your roster, especially if you roll with a second tight end or a punt option (TJ Jones, anyone?) in the FLEX.
Tom Brady ($8.0K) and James White ($4.9K) @ TB – GPP
Okay, okay. This is the second stack from the TNF game not included in the main slate, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the other side of this high scoring game.
The Bucs are third to last in DVOA against running backs receiving the ball and sixth worst in DVOA vs. the pass. Given the 55.5-point O/U, Brady will be throwing a lot. Given the Bucs’ weakness against pass-catching RBs, Brady will likely be throwing a lot to James White. It’s an interesting stack, but White is coming off a 12-target week last week. It’s hard to imagine the Pats aren’t planning to exploit Tampa with the Brady-White tandem in some capacity.
Yes, you could also go Gronk here, but the Bucs are 4th DVOA against the tight end position and allowing the seventh fewest DK points to said position. You could also try to guess which receiver(s) Brady will hit with a TD pass. Neither of those options are as appealing as the Brady-White connection.
Le’Veon Bell ($9.5K) and Steelers D/ST (3.9K) – Cash
Predicting this game flow seems almost too easy, but with Jacksonville’s strong secondary and sporadic offense, Bell should be leaned on heavily as Pittsburgh looks to control possession and suffocate Blake Bortles and co.
The Steelers defense ranks third best in the league in DVOA, and has been especially good against the pass thus far this season. That should make for a tough day for Bortles, who will need Leonard Fournette to find extra efficiency in the run game if they hope to keep this close. The Steelers D/ST is also averaging double digit DK points per game and just dominated an overmatched Baltimore offense.
I expect them to do the same to Jacksonville, while Bell should reap the benefits of a run-first approach. He did, after all, carry the ball 35 times last week. Look for Bell and Steelers D/ST to potentially combine for 40 DK points, with upside for more. This is close to a cash game lock for me.
Josh McCown ($4.5K), Bilal Powell (6.2K), Austin Seferian-Jenkins(3.5K) @ CLE – GPP
This is admittedly a strange stack, and one that should only be deployed in tournaments. But Bilal Powell is coming off a 32 pt. performance (DK scoring) against a soft Jacksonville Run D (ahem, another reason to play Le’Veon), Josh McCown plays his former team, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins has been consistent in two games, scoring 8.1 and 8.6 DK points the last two weeks.
There’s always considerable risk stacking a bad team like the Jets, but New York travels to Cleveland this week for a matchup against the lowly Browns, a team that is bottom three in DVOA, DVOA vs. Pass, and DVOA vs. WR1, while also ranking 27th in DVOA vs. TE. What’s more, they’ve allowed opposing backfields to score two receiving and two rushing touchdowns four weeks into the season.
However, the Browns have the sixth best DVOA against the run. I expect their competency in stopping the run to lead to more throwing from McCown, which bodes well for Seferian Jenkins, as well as Powell, who normally does his best work in the passing game.
These three don’t belong in your cash lineup, but they do have the right kind of matchups against an overall bad Cleveland team to separate your tournament rosters, while also providing plenty of salary relief.
Jay Cutler ($5.2K), Jay Ajayi ($6.6K), DaVante Parker ($6.6K) vs. TEN – GPP
What should be a popular team to target in the Milly Maker, the Dolphins have a prime matchup against a Tennessee defense that is bad against basically every offensive position. However, they are top 10 in DVOA against WR1. That, coupled with low touchdown totals, makes Jarvis Landry not as great of a play as the matchup makes him out to be. That leads me to Parker, the receiver Cutler has shown to have the best chemistry.
Cutler has a lot to prove this matchup, but mostly just that he belongs as the starter in Miami. After letting a rookie quarterback throw for four touchdowns, the Titans are exactly the team Cutler needs this week. And the Titans should be busy enough trying to contain Landry, allowing Parker to get land the more favorable matchups.
And that brings us to the underwhelming Jay Ajayi, who has one good game in three outings this year. But, again, the Titans are a bottom of the barrel defense, with the 21st ranked DVOA vs. opposing backs, and the Dolphins should be able to move the ball through the air. I expect that will clear things up for Ajayi, who was heated on the sidelines last week and clearly unhappy with how things are going.
Look for Cutler and Parker to connect early and often, while Ajayi will be used to bury the Titans if Miami can take an early lead. And even if the game stays close, expect strong production from the three. I don’t expect game flow to be an issue for this stack, not as long as Tennessee is allowing offenses to score an average of 31.5 real life points per game.
Aaron Rodgers (8.1K) and Jordy Nelson ($8.1K) @ DAL – Cash/GPP
This is an obvious one, and will be very chalky. Rodgers and Nelson are competing at the highest level, each an elite player at his respective position. They’ve connected 17 times in essentially three games (Nelson missed the majority of week two with injury), converting five of those into touchdowns.
However, as good as the chemistry is, the yardage definitely has not been there, as Nelson hasn’t gone for over 100 yards in a game this season. Fortunately, Orlando Scandrick has struggled this year for the Boys, and Dallas’ defense, as a whole, has been very shaky (24th ranked in DVOA). Throw in the battered Packers running back corp (Ty Montgomery still questionable to suit up), Devante Adams brutal hit last week, and the implied GB total of 25.3, and it seems Nelson has plenty going for him.
Pair the Packers duo with confidence in your cash game lineups, and understand they also carry the upside for tournament consideration.
Dak Prescott ($6.8K) and Dez Bryant ($6.5K) vs. GB – Cash
A stack I like even better than Rodgers and Nelson is Prescott and Bryant, if only because they combine for comparable, albeit lower upside, duo at a considerable discount.
Throw in the high total and the high likelihood that the Boys will not be able to run as much as they’d prefer, and you’ve unlocked a higher-than-normal ceiling for Dak and Dez. What’s more, the Packers have a weak secondary that has faced just one elite receiver this season (Julio Jones). Bryant has immense upside, given his propensity to score and the fact that he was targeted 13 times last week in a high scoring game.
As long as the game is close and high scoring (which Vegas expects), the Prescott-Bryant stack is a prime option. The $6.5K salary on Bryant makes this even more appealing. Roll the dice on this duo in tournaments, but I’m more confident stacking the two in cash.
Eli Manning ($6.1K), Odell Beckham Jr. ($8.5K) Evan Engram ($4.0K) vs. LAC – GPP
Picking on West Coast teams traveling to the East for a 1 p.m. ET game always piques my interest. Eli Manning’s recent success makes me love the matchup even more.
After two disappointing weeks to start the year, Manning has logged consecutive games with more than 27 DraftKings points. And rookie TE Evan Engram was heavily involved in those two games with a whopping 18 targets and 11 receptions, while OBJ drew 28 targets, hauling in 16 for two scores.
Manning has had quite the connection with the two in the past few weeks, and this week he gets a defense traveling across the country for an early game, and one that is below average against WR1 (DVOA) and third to last against TEs (DVOA).
There’s risk, as Eli is Eli, Engram is a rookie tight end, and Beckham Jr. is really banged up, which makes this a tough stack for cash. But the sheer upside, coupled with the fact that the Giants run game is terrible (3rd fewest rushing yards in the league), means Manning, Engram, and OBJ can expect another week of high usage. Fire away in tournaments.